特朗普效应和比特币崛起的基础

唐纳德·特朗普连任后，比特币大幅上涨，根据 2024 年 11 月 10 日市场数据，比特币达到 79,000 美元

Bitcoin price reached new heights on November 10, 2024, flirting with the $79,000 mark. This surge is largely driven by the announcement of Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential elections, which is generating enthusiasm among institutional investors. In this context of high volatility, analyst PlanB now predicts a potential surge in Bitcoin’s price up to $500,000 by the next four-year cycle.

比特币价格于 2024 年 11 月 10 日创下新高，逼近 79,000 美元大关。这一飙升主要是由于唐纳德·特朗普宣布在美国总统选举中获胜，这引起了机构投资者的热情。在这种高波动性的背景下，分析师 PlanB 现在预测，到下一个四年周期，比特币的价格可能会飙升至 50 万美元。

Bitcoin price reaches $79,000, Trump's 'national reserve' proposal sparks institutional buying Bitcoin experienced a significant rise following the re-election of Donald Trump and reached $79,000 according to market data on Thursday. Such a surge is directly linked to the enthusiasm generated by the new U.S. administration’s stated intentions, particularly the idea of creating a national reserve in Bitcoin.

比特币价格触及79,000美元，特朗普“国家储备”提议引发机构买盘 唐纳德·特朗普连任后，比特币经历了大幅上涨，周四市场数据显示，比特币价格达到79,000美元。这种激增与美国新政府所宣称的意图所产生的热情直接相关，特别是建立比特币国家储备的想法。

Analyst PlanB, known for his stock-to-flow model that projects the value of Bitcoin based on its scarcity and halving cycles, stated: “if history repeats itself and the stock-to-flow model continues to guide, we will witness a skyrocketing price.” These remarks resonate with investor expectations, anticipating an institutional influx into the BTC market.

分析师 PlanB 以其股票到流量模型而闻名，该模型根据比特币的稀缺性和减半周期来预测比特币的价值，他表示：“如果历史重演并且股票到流量模型继续引导，我们将见证比特币的飙升价格。”这些言论与投资者的预期产生了共鸣，预计机构将涌入比特币市场。

The proposal for a national reserve, already supported by influential voices like pro-Bitcoin Senator Cynthia Lummis, could increase institutional buying pressure by 200,000 BTC per year. With the integration of Bitcoin into national reserves, the United States could establish a new standard for digital value reserves, akin to gold reserves, spurred by unprecedented demand supported by official legitimacy for the world’s most capitalized cryptocurrency.

国家储备的提议已经得到了支持比特币的参议员辛西娅·卢米斯 (Cynthia Lummis) 等有影响力的声音的支持，这可能会导致机构购买压力每年增加 20 万个比特币。随着比特币纳入国家储备，美国可以建立类似于黄金储备的数字价值储备的新标准，这受到对世界上资本最多的加密货币的官方合法性支持的前所未有的需求的刺激。

PlanB predicts Bitcoin price to reach $500,000 in the next cycle Beyond the direct impact of political announcements, analyst PlanB has highlighted the growth prospects for Bitcoin beyond short-term speculation. He predicts an upward trajectory for BTC up to $500,000 in the next cycle.

PlanB 预测比特币价格将在下一个周期达到 50 万美元 除了政治公告的直接影响之外，分析师 PlanB 还强调了比特币超越短期投机的增长前景。他预计 BTC 在下一个周期的上涨轨迹将达到 50 万美元。

Using the stock-to-flow model, which measures Bitcoin’s value through its scarcity and the effects of halvings, PlanB estimates a potential price range between $250,000 and $1,000,000 per unit. “The stock-to-flow is just a compass, but it has proven effective in the past,” he explained. Furthermore, he emphasized that large investors like MicroStrategy continue to bolster their BTC portfolios.

PlanB 使用库存流量模型（通过其稀缺性和减半的影响来衡量比特币的价值）估计每单位的潜在价格范围在 25 万美元至 100 万美元之间。 “库存流量只是一个指南针，但过去已被证明是有效的，”他解释道。此外，他强调像 MicroStrategy 这样的大型投资者将继续增强他们的 BTC 投资组合。

The entry of companies like MicroStrategy, which plans to acquire 200,000 BTC annually, could serve as a catalyst for the price increase, through a constant influx of institutional capital. However, this movement also attracts criticism and concerns.

像 MicroStrategy 这样计划每年收购 200,000 BTC 的公司的进入可能会通过机构资本的不断涌入而成为价格上涨的催化剂。然而，这一运动也招致批评和担忧。

Thus, some observers warn against the effects of excessive speculation and the risks of “spoofing” on order books, a practice aimed at artificially manipulating prices by adding and removing large orders. This technique, although unregulated in crypto markets, could limit expected gains and create artificial price fluctuations.

因此，一些观察家警告过度投机的影响和订单簿上“欺骗”的风险，这种做法旨在通过增加和删除大订单来人为操纵价格。尽管这种技术在加密货币市场中不受监管，但可能会限制预期收益并造成人为的价格波动。

Bitcoin price rally: Key takeaways The rise of Bitcoin to $79,000 and PlanB’s ambitions, supported by a favorable political context, illustrate a decisive phase for BTC. If the establishment of a national reserve in Bitcoin in the United States were to materialize, it could redefine the foundations of the global digital economy.

比特币价格上涨：关键要点 比特币涨至 79,000 美元，以及 PlanB 的雄心壮志，在有利的政治环境的支持下，说明了 BTC 的决定性阶段。如果美国建立比特币国家储备，可能会重新定义全球数字经济的基础。

However, the risks of market manipulation and the lack of regulation remain significant challenges, highlighting the need for greater oversight and transparency in the cryptocurrency markets.

然而，市场操纵风险和缺乏监管仍然是重大挑战，凸显了加密货币市场加强监管和提高透明度的必要性。