川普會兌現他的加密貨幣承諾嗎？

在成功選出美國大選獲勝者後，Polymarket 交易員現在正試圖預測他將在哪裡兌現自己的承諾。

President Donald Trump made several promises to the Bitcoin and crypto community during his presidential run. As he prepares to be sworn in for a second term, Polymarket traders are attempting to predict which of these promises will be fulfilled.

唐納德·特朗普總統在總統競選期間向比特幣和加密社區做出了多項承諾。當他準備宣誓就職第二個任期時，Polymarket 交易員正試圖預測其中哪些承諾將會兌現。

According to Polymarket data, there are high expectations for pardons for the January 6 defendants and Ross Ulbricht, as well as possible support for a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

根據 Polymarket 的數據，人們對 1 月 6 日被告和 Ross Ulbricht 的赦免抱有很高的期望，並可能支持比特幣戰略儲備。

Markets suggest that pardons and selected crypto policies carry the strongest likelihood. Polymarket assigns a 99% chance of pardons for nonviolent January 6 participants in Trump’s first 100 days and a 92% chance for pardons issued on Day 1.

市場表明，赦免和選定的加密貨幣政策的可能性最大。 Polymarket 為 1 月 6 日的非暴力參與者分配了 99% 的機會在川普上任的前 100 天內獲得赦免，並在第一天獲得赦免的機會為 92%。

Ross Ulbricht, who Trump vowed to free on day one, has an 83% chance of receiving clemency in the first 100 days.

川普在第一天就發誓要釋放羅斯·烏布利希，他有 83% 的機會在前 100 天內獲得寬大處理。

There is also a strong indication that TikTok may remain operational despite prior legislation mandating its sale or ban, an outcome with a 92% likelihood by the end of the first week.

還有一個強烈的跡象表明，儘管之前有立法強制出售或禁止 TikTok，但 TikTok 仍可能繼續運營，到第一週結束時出現這種結果的可能性為 92%。

Another high-chance scenario involves more than 40 executive orders on Day 1, evaluated at 64%.

另一個高機率場景涉及第一天超過 40 項行政命令，評估率為 64%。

Crypto-oriented moves rank among the top concerns for traders, with over $2 million traded, though their likelihood is lower. A strategic Bitcoin reserve holds only a 56% probability in the first 100 days, and a Day 1 executive order on digital assets, addressing de-banking and fair value accounting, stands at 36%.

以加密貨幣為導向的趨勢是交易者最關心的問題之一，交易額超過 200 萬美元，儘管可能性較低。比特幣策略儲備在前 100 天內只有 56% 的可能性，而針對數位資產、解決去銀行化和公允價值會計問題的第一天行政命令的可能性為 36%。

However, more likely than either of these crypto reforms is the declassifying of the JFK assassination files (75%) by April 29. It is also more likely (66%) that the Gulf of Mexico could be renamed the “Gulf of America.”

然而，比這兩項加密貨幣改革更有可能的是在 4 月 29 日之前解密甘迺迪暗殺檔案 (75%)。

Some events appear less certain. Ending the Ukraine conflict within 90 days holds a 34% probability. Polymarket also assigns just a 31% likelihood that new 25% tariffs on Mexico or Canada will be enacted. A potential acquisition of Greenland has a 20% chance, and the possibility of a national abortion ban is assessed at 20%.

有些事件似乎不太確定。 90 天內結束烏克蘭衝突的可能性為 34%。 Polymarket 也認為，對墨西哥或加拿大徵收 25% 新關稅的可能性僅為 31%。收購格陵蘭島的可能性為 20%，全國墮胎禁令的可能性評估為 20%。

While some of these items, such as pardons or many executive orders, may occur with little procedural delay, others, including foreign policy shifts or territorial acquisitions, often involve extensive negotiations.

雖然其中一些項目，例如赦免或許多行政命令，可能會在程序上幾乎沒有延遲，但其他項目，包括外交政策轉變或領土收購，往往涉及廣泛的談判。

Ultimately, Polymarket traders appear more bullish on a pro-crypto administration than ever before. While they are unconvinced that major reform will come within the first 100 days, sentiment is clearly more positive than that of any previous administration.

最終，Polymarket 交易員似乎比以往任何時候都更加看好支持加密貨幣的政府。雖然他們不相信重大改革會在前 100 天內實施，但情緒顯然比以往任何一屆政府都更積極。

Moreover, outcomes that fail to materialize quickly may still resurface later in Trump’s term. It is important to note that Polymarket data is fluid, and odds may shift if official statements or early actions reveal a different policy focus.

此外，未能迅速實現的結果仍可能在川普任期後期再次出現。值得注意的是，Polymarket 數據是不穩定的，如果官方聲明或早期行動揭示出不同的政策重點，賠率可能會改變。

The pace of executive activity can be fast during the first week of a new term, so any early signals may influence how participants wager on each scenario.

在新學期的第一周，執行活動的節奏可能很快，因此任何早期訊號都可能影響參與者對每種情況的押注。

These markets open a new avenue for those interested in U.S. politics as Polymarket data moves fast on any breaking news, making it an increasingly helpful barometer for policy change.

這些市場為那些對美國政治感興趣的人開闢了一條新途徑，因為 Polymarket 數據在任何突發新聞上都會快速變化，使其成為政策變化越來越有用的晴雨表。