特朗普会兑现他的加密货币承诺吗？

在成功选出美国大选获胜者后，Polymarket 交易员现在正试图预测他将在哪里兑现自己的承诺。

President Donald Trump made several promises to the Bitcoin and crypto community during his presidential run. As he prepares to be sworn in for a second term, Polymarket traders are attempting to predict which of these promises will be fulfilled.

唐纳德·特朗普总统在总统竞选期间向比特币和加密社区做出了多项承诺。当他准备宣誓就职第二个任期时，Polymarket 交易员正试图预测其中哪些承诺将会兑现。

According to Polymarket data, there are high expectations for pardons for the January 6 defendants and Ross Ulbricht, as well as possible support for a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

根据 Polymarket 的数据，人们对 1 月 6 日被告和 Ross Ulbricht 的赦免抱有很高的期望，并可能支持比特币战略储备。

Markets suggest that pardons and selected crypto policies carry the strongest likelihood. Polymarket assigns a 99% chance of pardons for nonviolent January 6 participants in Trump’s first 100 days and a 92% chance for pardons issued on Day 1.

市场表明，赦免和选定的加密货币政策的可能性最大。 Polymarket 为 1 月 6 日的非暴力参与者分配了 99% 的机会在特朗普上任的前 100 天内获得赦免，并在第一天获得赦免的机会为 92%。

Ross Ulbricht, who Trump vowed to free on day one, has an 83% chance of receiving clemency in the first 100 days.

特朗普在第一天就发誓要释放罗斯·乌布利希，他有 83% 的机会在头 100 天内获得宽大处理。

There is also a strong indication that TikTok may remain operational despite prior legislation mandating its sale or ban, an outcome with a 92% likelihood by the end of the first week.

还有一个强烈的迹象表明，尽管之前有立法强制出售或禁止 TikTok，但 TikTok 仍可能继续运营，到第一周结束时出现这种结果的可能性为 92%。

Another high-chance scenario involves more than 40 executive orders on Day 1, evaluated at 64%.

另一种高概率场景涉及第一天超过 40 条行政命令，评估率为 64%。

Crypto-oriented moves rank among the top concerns for traders, with over $2 million traded, though their likelihood is lower. A strategic Bitcoin reserve holds only a 56% probability in the first 100 days, and a Day 1 executive order on digital assets, addressing de-banking and fair value accounting, stands at 36%.

以加密货币为导向的走势是交易者最关心的问题之一，交易额超过 200 万美元，尽管其可能性较低。比特币战略储备在前 100 天内只有 56% 的可能性，而针对数字资产、解决去银行化和公允价值会计问题的第一天行政命令的可能性为 36%。

However, more likely than either of these crypto reforms is the declassifying of the JFK assassination files (75%) by April 29. It is also more likely (66%) that the Gulf of Mexico could be renamed the “Gulf of America.”

然而，比这两项加密货币改革更有可能的是在 4 月 29 日之前解密肯尼迪暗杀档案 (75%)。墨西哥湾更名为“美洲湾”的可能性也更大 (66%)。

Some events appear less certain. Ending the Ukraine conflict within 90 days holds a 34% probability. Polymarket also assigns just a 31% likelihood that new 25% tariffs on Mexico or Canada will be enacted. A potential acquisition of Greenland has a 20% chance, and the possibility of a national abortion ban is assessed at 20%.

有些事件似乎不太确定。 90 天内结束乌克兰冲突的可能性为 34%。 Polymarket 还认为，对墨西哥或加拿大征收 25% 新关税的可能性仅为 31%。收购格陵兰岛的可能性为 20%，全国堕胎禁令的可能性评估为 20%。

While some of these items, such as pardons or many executive orders, may occur with little procedural delay, others, including foreign policy shifts or territorial acquisitions, often involve extensive negotiations.

虽然其中一些项目，例如赦免或许多行政命令，可能会在程序上几乎没有延迟，但其他项目，包括外交政策转变或领土收购，往往涉及广泛的谈判。

Ultimately, Polymarket traders appear more bullish on a pro-crypto administration than ever before. While they are unconvinced that major reform will come within the first 100 days, sentiment is clearly more positive than that of any previous administration.

最终，Polymarket 交易员似乎比以往任何时候都更加看好支持加密货币的政府。虽然他们不相信重大改革会在头 100 天内实施，但情绪显然比以往任何一届政府都更加积极。

Moreover, outcomes that fail to materialize quickly may still resurface later in Trump’s term. It is important to note that Polymarket data is fluid, and odds may shift if official statements or early actions reveal a different policy focus.

此外，未能迅速实现的结果仍可能在特朗普任期后期再次出现。值得注意的是，Polymarket 数据是不稳定的，如果官方声明或早期行动揭示出不同的政策重点，赔率可能会发生变化。

The pace of executive activity can be fast during the first week of a new term, so any early signals may influence how participants wager on each scenario.

在新学期的第一周，执行活动的节奏可能很快，因此任何早期信号都可能影响参与者对每种情况的押注。

These markets open a new avenue for those interested in U.S. politics as Polymarket data moves fast on any breaking news, making it an increasingly helpful barometer for policy change.

这些市场为那些对美国政治感兴趣的人开辟了一条新途径，因为 Polymarket 数据在任何突发新闻上都会快速变化，使其成为政策变化越来越有用的晴雨表。