川普硬幣是一個騙局。甚至他的支持者也知道這一點。

在他的團隊於週五晚上推出該代幣後，每枚代幣的價格在大約一天之內從 6 美元飆升至 70 美元以上。由於川普的兩家附屬公司擁有該代幣總供應量的 80%，因此川普在一個週末的表現基本上就超過了 100 億美元。

Former President Donald Trump has launched his own cryptocurrency token, named $TRUMP. The coin's value quickly surged after its launch on Friday evening, rising from $6 to over $70 within a day.

前總統唐納德·川普推出了自己的加密貨幣代幣，名為 $TRUMP。週五晚間推出後，該代幣的價值迅速飆升，一天之內從 6 美元升至 70 美元以上。

Trump's team unveiled the coin on Friday, and two of his affiliate companies own 80 percent of the total supply. This means that Trump essentially manifested over $10 billion in a single weekend. At one point, Axios estimated that $TRUMP momentarily accounted for about 89 percent of Trump's net worth, making him one of the richest people in the world.

川普的團隊於週五推出了該代幣，他的兩家附屬公司擁有總供應量的 80%。這意味著川普在一個週末的收入基本上就超過了 100 億美元。 Axios 曾估計，川普的資產暫時約佔川普淨資產的 89%，使他成為世界上最富有的人之一。

Melania Trump also announced her own coin, $MELANIA.

梅蘭妮亞·川普也宣布了她自己的貨幣$MELANIA。

Both $TRUMP and $MELANIA are so-called memecoins, which typically have no business fundamentals or practical use cases. They can be spun up in a matter of minutes and whisked to massively overinflated valuations on social media, before being promptly dumped on the latecomers.

$TRUMP 和 $MELANIA 都是所謂的迷因幣，通常沒有商業基礎或實際用例。它們可以在幾分鐘內啟動，並在社群媒體上迅速推高估值，然後迅速被後來者拋棄。

The arc of a memecoin's market cycle almost always bends toward zero: A coin inspired by the “Hawk Tuah” girl was worth $500 million just after it launched late last year and swiftly lost 99 percent of its value. Other silly tokens, such as the inauspiciously named $BODEN (an unofficial, unsanctioned riff on President Joe Biden's lame-duck era) have experienced similar collapses.

Memecoin 的市場週期弧線幾乎總是向零彎曲：一枚受“Hawk Tuah”女孩啟發的硬幣在去年底推出後價值 5 億美元，但很快就損失了 99% 的價值。其他愚蠢的代幣，例如名字不吉利的 $BODEN（一種非官方的、未經批准的對喬·拜登總統跛腳鴨時代的模仿）也經歷了類似的崩潰。

Insiders and early adopters turn a quick profit at the expense of latecomers. And although it's definitely possible that Trump's position of global influence gives $TRUMP more staying power than the typical memecoin, it's arguably even more volatile than cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, that are not exactly stable in their own right. The value of $TRUMP has already dipped by more than half and is now worth less than $8 billion.

內部人士和早期採用者以犧牲後來者的利益為代價快速獲利。儘管川普的全球影響力地位絕對有可能使 $TRUMP 比典型的 memecoin 更具持久力，但它可以說比加密貨幣（例如比特幣）更不穩定，而加密貨幣本身並不完全穩定。 $TRUMP 的價值已經下跌了一半以上，目前價值不到 80 億美元。

Trump has made an enormous effort to position himself as a powerful ally of the crypto industry: He has said he plans to create a “strategic national bitcoin stockpile” and promoted another crypto business with his three sons just weeks before the election.

川普做出了巨大的努力，將自己定位為加密行業的強大盟友：他表示，他計劃創建一個“戰略性國家比特幣儲備”，並在大選前幾週與他的三個兒子一起推動另一項加密業務。

Trump announced the coin on Truth Social on Friday night at the same time as the pre-inauguration “Crypto Ball,” a ritzy celebration emceed by David Sacks, a tech entrepreneur and podcast host whom Trump has tapped as his crypto czar. It was meant as a kind of debutante ceremony: After four years of what the industry has interpreted as targeted sanctions and harassment from SEC Chair Gary Gensler and other steely regulators, crypto is finally free to become the fullest version of itself.

週五晚上，川普在“真相社交”上宣布了這一代幣，同時舉行了就職前的“加密舞會”，這場盛大的慶祝活動由科技企業家兼播客主持人大衛·薩克斯主持，川普任命他為他的加密貨幣沙皇。這本來是一種首次亮相的儀式：在經歷了四年來被業界解讀為來自SEC 主席加里·詹斯勒(Gary Gensler) 和其他強硬監管者的有針對性的製裁和騷擾之後，加密貨幣終於可以自由地成為最完整的版本。

Whether memecoins are even legal is a matter of dispute. Biden's SEC regularly went after crypto companies for issuing coins that appeared to violate existing securities laws. But Trump himself is picking the next SEC chair.

模因幣是否合法仍有爭議。拜登領導的美國證券交易委員會定期追查加密貨幣公司發行似乎違反現有證券法的代幣。但川普本人正在挑選下一任 SEC 主席。

There's also the question of what Trump's new tens of billions of dollars on paper end up amounting to in the real world, because most of the total token supply hasn't actually been issued, and because any attempt to start cashing out would no doubt tank the price. Still, even after Trump has promised a new golden age for crypto during his second administration, his new hypothetical billions practically cement his interest in a more hands-off approach to the industry. Keep in mind: Trump called bitcoin a “scam” just a few years ago, when crypto didn't seem to suit his interests. Trump is far less likely to level those kinds of judgments in the future.

還有一個問題是，川普紙面上的數百億美元新資金在現實世界中最終會達到多少，因為大部分代幣供應總量實際上尚未發行，而且任何開始兌現的嘗試無疑都會失敗。儘管如此，即使川普在第二屆政府期間承諾為加密貨幣帶來新的黃金時代，他的新假設的數十億美元實際上鞏固了他對該行業採取更加不干涉的態度的興趣。請記住：川普幾年前還稱比特幣為“騙局”，當時加密貨幣似乎不符合他的興趣。川普未來做出此類判斷的可能性要小得多。

Another potential issue is that because memecoins are so lightly regulated, anyone can buy them, whether they are 12-year-olds with a parent's credit card or North Korean hackers looking for leverage over the global economy. Some of the available supply of Trump's official cryptocurrency might already be controlled by foreign interests.

另一個潛在的問題是，由於 memecoin 的監管非常寬鬆，任何人都可以購買它們，無論是擁有父母信用卡的 12 歲孩子，還是尋求影響全球經濟的北韓駭客。川普官方加密貨幣的部分可用供應可能已經由外國利益集團控制。

There's also the chance that Trump's memecoin gambit could inspire other world political and cultural leaders to release similar coins. (Lorenzo Sewell, the pastor who administered today's inaugural prayer, has already announced a $LORENZO coin.) If foreign actors get their hands on Trump's supposedly America-first economic initiatives, the administration's promise to turn the country into a “bitcoin superpower” starts to feel a little hollower.

川普的迷因幣策略也有可能激勵其他世界政治和文化領袖發行類似的硬幣。 （主持今天就職祈禱的牧師洛倫佐·休厄爾(Lorenzo Sewell) 已經宣布發行洛倫佐美元硬幣。）如果外國勢力掌握了特朗普所謂的美國優先的經濟舉措，政府將美國變成“比特幣超級大國」的承諾就開始了感覺有點空虛。

Although much of the crypto world has been eagerly awaiting Trump's return to the White House, a new sense of unease has settled over some of the industry's biggest defenders, who recognize that memecoins don't exactly reflect well on crypto. Memecoins are “zero-sum,” the investor Balaji Srinivasan, typically aligned with Trump, reminded his followers on X over the weekend. “There is no wealth creation … And after an initial spike, the price eventually crashes and the last buyers lose everything.”

儘管加密世界的大部分人一直在熱切等待川普重返白宮，但該行業的一些最大的捍衛者已經產生了一種新的不安感，他們認識到模因幣並不能很好地反映加密貨幣。通常與川普結盟的投資者巴拉吉·斯里尼瓦桑 (Balaji Srinivasan) 週末在 X 上提醒他的追隨者，Memecoin 是「零和」的。 “沒有創造財富……在最初的飆升之後，價格最終崩潰，最後的買家失去了一切。”

Nic Carter, a prominent crypto investor and Trump supporter, reasons that the unease is indicative of a broader panic, a slow-growing sense that Trump can't be controlled in the way the industry

著名加密貨幣投資者和川普支持者尼克卡特 (Nic Carter) 認為，這種不安表明了更廣泛的恐慌，一種緩慢增長的感覺，即川普無法像行業那樣受到控制。