特朗普政府在2025年為加密貨幣部門提供了一些優勢。

美國證券交易委員會（SEC）停止了執法行動，並探究了Coinbase，Gemini，uniswap，Opensea，Consensys等著名的加密交易所和公司。

The Trump Administration has offered several advantages to the crypto sector in 2025.

特朗普政府在2025年為加密貨幣部門提供了一些優勢。

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has paused enforcement actions and probes into prominent crypto exchanges and firms like Coinbase, Gemini, Uniswap, OpenSea, ConsenSys, among others. Additionally, the White House has released an Executive Order aimed at fostering American dominance in the digital asset sector and hinted at the possibility of creating a bitcoin reserve.

美國證券交易委員會（SEC）停止了執法行動，並進行了對Coinbase，Gemini，uniswap，Opensea，Opensea，Consensys等公司的著名加密交易所和公司的調查。此外，白宮發布了一項行政命令，旨在促進美國在數字資產領域的統治地位，並暗示有可能創建比特幣儲備。

However, despite these measures, they have not been sufficient to overcome the recent decline in Bitcoin's price and the overall negative mood in the crypto market. Currently valued at $84,000, Bitcoin has decreased by 18% since Donald Trump took office, nearly 23% from its peak, with the wider cryptocurrency market down 21%.

然而，儘管採取了這些措施，但它們不足以克服最近的比特幣價格下跌和加密市場中總體負面情緒。自唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）上任以來，比特幣目前的價值為84,000美元，比峰值近23％以來，比特幣下降了18％，而更廣泛的加密貨幣市場下降了21％。

"It seems like all positive developments in crypto are because influential political figures are saying, 'Let's just proceed.' There's no due process, no deep investigation... and this movement can change at any moment. It doesn't seem like there's sustainability," said Kavita Gupta, founder and general partner at Delta Blockchain Fund.

“似乎是加密貨幣的所有積極發展都是因為有影響力的政治人物在說，'讓我們繼續前進。'沒有適當的程序，沒有深入的調查……這一運動似乎都不是可持續性的。

Three main factors driving the market down could lead it to fall further before it finds stability and begins to recover. In fact, the industry might need to wait until 2026 to see any consistent bullish momentum.

推動市場下降的三個主要因素可能會導致它在發現穩定並開始恢復之前進一步降低。實際上，該行業可能需要等到2026年才能看到任何一致的看漲勢頭。

Crypto's Self-Inflicted Injuries

加密的自我傷害

There are several reasons to explain the current downturn, with the behaviors of crypto participants being a primary factor.

有幾個原因可以解釋當前的低迷，而加密參與者的行為是主要因素。

For example, the industry itself has not helped matters with a series of memecoin controversies like $MELANIA and $LIBRA, which embroiled Argentine President Javier Milei in scandal. Trading activity and new memecoin launches are decreasing across the board, raising doubts about the long-term sustainability of this trend. For instance, the number of new token launches peaked at 66,471 on January 24, just six days after $TRUMP debuted. By February 27, the last day for which full data was available, this number had plummeted to 27,741, a drop of 58%.

例如，該行業本身並沒有對諸如$ Melania和$ libra等一系列成人爭議的重要問題，這些爭議使阿根廷總統的賈維爾·米利（Javier Milei）陷入了醜聞。貿易活動和新的紀念因素的推出正在全面減少，這引起了人們對這一趨勢的長期可持續性的懷疑。例如，新代幣的數量在1月24日起達到了66,471，在特朗普首次亮相僅六天后。到2月27日，有完整的數據可用的最後一天，這個數字跌至27,741，下降了58％。

"People saw memecoins as the fairest and best way to speculate in crypto, but $LIBRA showed that this notion was flawed. Now, on-chain volumes are significantly lower, and while memecoins bear the brunt, it's impacting the entire crypto landscape," remarked Brian Rudick, head of research at GSR.

“人們認為Memecoins是在加密貨幣中推測的最公平，最佳的方法，但是$ libra表明，這種概念是有缺陷的。現在，鏈上的數量明顯較低，而Memecoins則是首要的，它影響了整個加密貨幣景觀，” GSR研究負責人Brian Rudick表示。

Another major blow to the industry was North Korea's $1.5 billion hack of Bybit, marking the largest theft in crypto history, which further raised questions about the security of funds in the crypto space. "These hacks lead outsiders to think that this industry, even after a decade, hasn't matured enough," added Gupta.

該行業的另一個重大打擊是朝鮮的15億美元黑客攻擊，標誌著加密貨幣歷史上最大的盜竊案，這進一步提出了有關加密貨幣領域資金安全性的疑問。古普塔補充說：“這些駭客使局外人認為這個行業即使經過十年的發展，也沒有足夠成熟。”

External Challenges

外部挑戰

The prevailing negative sentiment in the industry has been exacerbated by a decrease in investors' risk appetites.

由於投資者風險食慾的減少，該行業中普遍的負面情緒加劇了。

Normally, consumer optimism rises with a new administration, and business leaders initially welcomed Trump's election due to his pro-business stance. However, several recent indicators suggest that consumer confidence is deteriorating, likely impacted by President Trump's threat of 25% tariffs on trading partners such as China, Canada, Mexico, and the European Union.

通常，由於新政府的新政府，消費者的樂觀情緒提高，而商業領袖最初由於他的親企業立場而歡迎特朗普的選舉。但是，最近的一些指標表明，消費者的信心正在惡化，可能會受到特朗普總統對中國，加拿大，加拿大，墨西哥和歐盟等貿易夥伴關稅的威脅的影響。

The February report from the nonprofit Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index showed a decline for the third consecutive month, reporting its lowest levels since August 2021.

非營利會議委員會的消費者信心指數的2月份報告顯示，自2021年8月以來的最低水平連續第三個月下降。

These findings align with a University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey that revealed a significant drop in consumer confidence. According to the report, "Consumer sentiment continued its early month decline, falling nearly 10% since January. The decrease was consistent across age, income, and wealth demographics."

這些發現與密歇根大學的消費者情緒調查一致，該調查顯示，消費者信心大大下降。根據該報告：“消費者情緒繼續下降，自1月以來下降了近10％。在年齡，收入和財富人口統計的情況下，下降量保持一致。”

Additionally, "Year-ahead inflation expectations rose from 3.3% last month to 4.3% this month, the highest level since November 2023, representing two consecutive months of unusually large increases. The current measure is significantly greater than the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic."

此外，“年度通貨膨脹預期從上個月的3.3％上升到本月的4.3％，這是2023年11月以來的最高水平，這是連續兩個月的異常大幅增長。當前的措施明顯高於大流行前兩年的2.3-3.0％範圍。”

These inflation expectations, which have surfaced across various age and income categories, are particularly crucial to monitor, as inflation perceptions can become self-fulfilling. Rudick noted, "The last I checked, the CME Fedwatch tool anticipated two rate cuts this year. If those projections are fully retracted due to tariff anxieties, we may see more downsides in traditional markets than in crypto."

這些通貨膨脹期望在各個年齡和收入類別中都浮出水面，對於監控尤其至關重要，因為通貨膨脹感可能會變得自我實現。魯迪克指出：“我檢查的最後一次，CME FedWatch工具預計今年會降低兩次降低。如果由於關稅焦慮而完全撤回了這些預測，我們可能會在傳統市場中看到比在加密貨幣中更多的缺點。”

How Low Can BTC Go?

BTC可以多麼低？

Determining where bitcoin might go from here is challenging. Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, emphasized that bitcoin is unique among commodities. "Unlike crude oil, coffee, or cocoa, the supply and demand dynamics for bitcoin are not as clear-cut. It exists mainly for speculation and investment purposes."

確定比特幣可能從這裡去哪裡是具有挑戰性的。互動經紀人首席戰略家史蒂夫·索斯尼克（Steve Sosnick）強調，比特幣在商品中是獨一無二的。 “與原油，咖啡或可可不同，比特幣的供求動力並不那麼明確。它主要是出於猜測和投資目的而存在。”

However, Sosnick referenced a few technical indicators that could shed light on price levels investors should monitor. One involves bitcoin's 200-day Simple Moving Average. At its current price, the

但是，索斯尼克（Sosnick）提到了一些技術指標，這些指標可能會闡明投資者應監控的價格水平。其中一種涉及比特幣的200天簡單移動平均線。以目前的價格，