特朗普政府在2025年为加密货币部门提供了一些优势。

美国证券交易委员会（SEC）停止了执法行动，并探究了Coinbase，Gemini，uniswap，Opensea，Consensys等著名的加密交易所和公司。

The Trump Administration has offered several advantages to the crypto sector in 2025.

特朗普政府在2025年为加密货币部门提供了一些优势。

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has paused enforcement actions and probes into prominent crypto exchanges and firms like Coinbase, Gemini, Uniswap, OpenSea, ConsenSys, among others. Additionally, the White House has released an Executive Order aimed at fostering American dominance in the digital asset sector and hinted at the possibility of creating a bitcoin reserve.

美国证券交易委员会（SEC）停止了执法行动，并进行了对Coinbase，Gemini，uniswap，Opensea，Opensea，Consensys等公司的著名加密交易所和公司的调查。此外，白宫发布了一项行政命令，旨在促进美国在数字资产领域的统治地位，并暗示有可能创建比特币储备。

However, despite these measures, they have not been sufficient to overcome the recent decline in Bitcoin's price and the overall negative mood in the crypto market. Currently valued at $84,000, Bitcoin has decreased by 18% since Donald Trump took office, nearly 23% from its peak, with the wider cryptocurrency market down 21%.

然而，尽管采取了这些措施，但它们不足以克服最近的比特币价格下跌和加密市场中总体负面情绪。自唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）上任以来，比特币目前的价值为84,000美元，比峰值近23％以来，比特币下降了18％，而更广泛的加密货币市场下降了21％。

"It seems like all positive developments in crypto are because influential political figures are saying, 'Let's just proceed.' There's no due process, no deep investigation... and this movement can change at any moment. It doesn't seem like there's sustainability," said Kavita Gupta, founder and general partner at Delta Blockchain Fund.

“似乎是加密货币的所有积极发展都是因为有影响力的政治人物在说，'让我们继续前进。'没有适当的程序，没有深入的调查……这一运动似乎都不是可持续性的。

Three main factors driving the market down could lead it to fall further before it finds stability and begins to recover. In fact, the industry might need to wait until 2026 to see any consistent bullish momentum.

推动市场下降的三个主要因素可能会导致它在发现稳定并开始恢复之前进一步降低。实际上，该行业可能需要等到2026年才能看到任何一致的看涨势头。

Crypto's Self-Inflicted Injuries

加密的自我伤害

There are several reasons to explain the current downturn, with the behaviors of crypto participants being a primary factor.

有几个原因可以解释当前的低迷，而加密参与者的行为是主要因素。

For example, the industry itself has not helped matters with a series of memecoin controversies like $MELANIA and $LIBRA, which embroiled Argentine President Javier Milei in scandal. Trading activity and new memecoin launches are decreasing across the board, raising doubts about the long-term sustainability of this trend. For instance, the number of new token launches peaked at 66,471 on January 24, just six days after $TRUMP debuted. By February 27, the last day for which full data was available, this number had plummeted to 27,741, a drop of 58%.

例如，该行业本身并没有对诸如$ Melania和$ libra等一系列成人争议的重要问题，这些争议使阿根廷总统的贾维尔·米利（Javier Milei）陷入了丑闻。贸易活动和新的纪念因素的推出正在全面减少，这引起了人们对这一趋势的长期可持续性的怀疑。例如，新代币的数量在1月24日起达到了66,471，在特朗普首次亮相仅六天后。到2月27日，有完整的数据可用的最后一天，这个数字跌至27,741，下降了58％。

"People saw memecoins as the fairest and best way to speculate in crypto, but $LIBRA showed that this notion was flawed. Now, on-chain volumes are significantly lower, and while memecoins bear the brunt, it's impacting the entire crypto landscape," remarked Brian Rudick, head of research at GSR.

“人们认为Memecoins是在加密货币中推测的最公平，最佳的方法，但是$ libra表明，这种概念是有缺陷的。现在，链上的数量明显较低，而Memecoins则是首要的，它影响了整个加密货币景观，” GSR研究负责人Brian Rudick表示。

Another major blow to the industry was North Korea's $1.5 billion hack of Bybit, marking the largest theft in crypto history, which further raised questions about the security of funds in the crypto space. "These hacks lead outsiders to think that this industry, even after a decade, hasn't matured enough," added Gupta.

该行业的另一个重大打击是朝鲜的15亿美元黑客攻击，标志着加密货币历史上最大的盗窃案，这进一步提出了有关加密货币领域资金安全性的疑问。古普塔补充说：“这些骇客使局外人认为这个行业即使经过十年的发展，也没有足够成熟。”

External Challenges

外部挑战

The prevailing negative sentiment in the industry has been exacerbated by a decrease in investors' risk appetites.

由于投资者风险食欲的减少，该行业中普遍的负面情绪加剧了。

Normally, consumer optimism rises with a new administration, and business leaders initially welcomed Trump's election due to his pro-business stance. However, several recent indicators suggest that consumer confidence is deteriorating, likely impacted by President Trump's threat of 25% tariffs on trading partners such as China, Canada, Mexico, and the European Union.

通常，由于新政府的新政府，消费者的乐观情绪提高，而商业领袖最初由于他的亲企业立场而欢迎特朗普的选举。但是，最近的一些指标表明，消费者的信心正在恶化，可能会受到特朗普总统对中国，加拿大，加拿大，墨西哥和欧盟等贸易伙伴关税的威胁的影响。

The February report from the nonprofit Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index showed a decline for the third consecutive month, reporting its lowest levels since August 2021.

非营利会议委员会的消费者信心指数的2月份报告显示，自2021年8月以来的最低水平连续第三个月下降。

These findings align with a University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey that revealed a significant drop in consumer confidence. According to the report, "Consumer sentiment continued its early month decline, falling nearly 10% since January. The decrease was consistent across age, income, and wealth demographics."

这些发现与密歇根大学的消费者情绪调查一致，该调查显示，消费者信心大大下降。根据该报告：“消费者情绪继续下降，自1月以来下降了近10％。在年龄，收入和财富人口统计的情况下，下降量保持一致。”

Additionally, "Year-ahead inflation expectations rose from 3.3% last month to 4.3% this month, the highest level since November 2023, representing two consecutive months of unusually large increases. The current measure is significantly greater than the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic."

此外，“年度通货膨胀预期从上个月的3.3％上升到本月的4.3％，这是2023年11月以来的最高水平，这是连续两个月的异常大幅增长。当前的措施明显高于大流行前两年的2.3-3.0％范围。”

These inflation expectations, which have surfaced across various age and income categories, are particularly crucial to monitor, as inflation perceptions can become self-fulfilling. Rudick noted, "The last I checked, the CME Fedwatch tool anticipated two rate cuts this year. If those projections are fully retracted due to tariff anxieties, we may see more downsides in traditional markets than in crypto."

这些通货膨胀期望在各个年龄和收入类别中都浮出水面，对于监控尤其至关重要，因为通货膨胀感可能会变得自我实现。鲁迪克指出：“我检查的最后一次，CME FedWatch工具预计今年会降低两次降低。如果由于关税焦虑而完全撤回了这些预测，我们可能会在传统市场中看到比在加密货币中更多的缺点。”

How Low Can BTC Go?

BTC可以多么低？

Determining where bitcoin might go from here is challenging. Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, emphasized that bitcoin is unique among commodities. "Unlike crude oil, coffee, or cocoa, the supply and demand dynamics for bitcoin are not as clear-cut. It exists mainly for speculation and investment purposes."

确定比特币可能从这里去哪里是具有挑战性的。互动经纪人首席战略家史蒂夫·索斯尼克（Steve Sosnick）强调，比特币在商品中是独一无二的。 “与原油，咖啡或可可不同，比特币的供求动力并不那么明确。它主要是出于猜测和投资目的而存在。”

However, Sosnick referenced a few technical indicators that could shed light on price levels investors should monitor. One involves bitcoin's 200-day Simple Moving Average. At its current price, the

但是，索斯尼克（Sosnick）提到了一些技术指标，这些指标可能会阐明投资者应监控的价格水平。其中一种涉及比特币的200天简单移动平均线。以目前的价格，