美國國庫市場波動可能會使比特幣（BTC）價格恢復脫軌

美國財政市場在四個月內的波動性最高，可能危害預期的比特幣（BTC）價格恢復。

The U.S. Treasury market is now experiencing its highest volatility in four months, potentially jeopardizing an expected bitcoin (BTC) price recovery.

現在，美國財政市場正在經歷四個月內的最高波動性，可能會危害預期的比特幣（BTC）價格恢復。

According to Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE) data, the index, which measures the expected 30-day volatility in the U.S. Treasuries market, has risen to 115, the highest since Nov. 6. It has also increased 38% over the past three weeks.

根據Merrill Lynch期權估計指數（移動）數據的數據，該指數衡量了美國國債市場預期的30天波動率，自11月6日以來的最高點上升到115。它在過去三周中也增加了38％。

Increased volatility in the U.S. Treasury notes, which are used as the main collateral, securities and finance in the global financial system, impacts leverage and liquidity in financial markets. This, in turn, leads to less risk appetite in financial markets.

美國財政部票據的波動性增加，該票據用作全球金融體系中的主要抵押品，證券和金融，會影響金融市場的槓桿率和流動性。反過來，這導致金融市場的風險較小。

The MOVE index also collapsed following the Nov. 4 election, easing financial conditions that likely aided BTC’s surge to as high as $108,000 from $70,000.

11月4日大選之後，此舉指數也崩潰了，從70,000美元的$ 70,000來緩解財務狀況，這可能使BTC的激增高達108,000美元。

The cryptocurrency’s rally peaked in December-January as the MOVE bottomed out.

隨著行動的觸底，加密貨幣的集會在12月至1月達到了頂峰。

Rising U.S. inflation and persistent geopolitical risks have since increased the expected volatility in the U.S. Treasuries market, rendering the 30-day implied volatility on Friday at 115. As the chart shows, the last time the index was trading at this level was in early November

自那以來，美國通貨膨脹率上升和持續的地緣政治風險已經增加了美國國債市場的預期波動性，這使周五115年的30天隱含波動率提高了。如圖所示，指數上次交易在此級別是11月初

The sharp rise in the MOVE index also coincides with a decline in risk-taking in the cryptocurrency market. BTC is currently trading at around $82,000, having failed to break the $90,000 level despite some analysts forecasting price rallies to $90,000 and higher.

移動指數的急劇上升也隨加密貨幣市場的冒險下降而匯聚一致。 BTC目前的交易價格約為82,000美元，儘管有些分析師預測價格集會至90,000美元和更高，但未能打破90,000美元的水平。

The latest U.S. inflation data for February came in softer-than-expected, which would strengthen the case for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. The reading also encouraged some analysts to forecast a bitcoin price recovery.

2月份的美國通貨膨脹數據比預期柔和，這將加強削減美聯儲利率的情況。閱讀還鼓勵一些分析師預測比特幣價格恢復。

"With inflation cooling and recession fears still looming but not worsening, Bitcoin could be on the verge of its next major breakout, pushing past the stubborn sub-$90K range," said Matt Mena, Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares, in an email.

21Shares的加密研究策略師Matt Mena表示：“由於通貨膨脹冷卻和衰退的擔憂仍然存在，但並沒有惡化，比特幣可能正處於下一個重大突破的邊緣，超越了頑固的低於$ 90K的範圍。”

Any upswing, however, could unfold slower than expected.

但是，任何上升的展開都可能比預期的要慢。