美国国库市场波动可能会使比特币（BTC）价格恢复脱轨

美国财政市场在四个月内的波动性最高，可能危害预期的比特币（BTC）价格恢复。

The U.S. Treasury market is now experiencing its highest volatility in four months, potentially jeopardizing an expected bitcoin (BTC) price recovery.

现在，美国财政市场正在经历四个月内的最高波动性，可能会危害预期的比特币（BTC）价格恢复。

According to Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE) data, the index, which measures the expected 30-day volatility in the U.S. Treasuries market, has risen to 115, the highest since Nov. 6. It has also increased 38% over the past three weeks.

根据Merrill Lynch期权估计指数（移动）数据的数据，该指数衡量了美国国债市场预期的30天波动率，自11月6日以来的最高点上升到115。它在过去三周中也增加了38％。

Increased volatility in the U.S. Treasury notes, which are used as the main collateral, securities and finance in the global financial system, impacts leverage and liquidity in financial markets. This, in turn, leads to less risk appetite in financial markets.

美国财政部票据的波动性增加，该票据用作全球金融体系中的主要抵押品，证券和金融，会影响金融市场的杠杆率和流动性。反过来，这导致金融市场的风险较小。

The MOVE index also collapsed following the Nov. 4 election, easing financial conditions that likely aided BTC’s surge to as high as $108,000 from $70,000.

11月4日大选之后，此举指数也崩溃了，从70,000美元的$ 70,000来缓解财务状况，这可能使BTC的激增高达108,000美元。

The cryptocurrency’s rally peaked in December-January as the MOVE bottomed out.

随着行动的触底，加密货币的集会在12月至1月达到了顶峰。

Rising U.S. inflation and persistent geopolitical risks have since increased the expected volatility in the U.S. Treasuries market, rendering the 30-day implied volatility on Friday at 115. As the chart shows, the last time the index was trading at this level was in early November

自那以来，美国通货膨胀率上升和持续的地缘政治风险已经增加了美国国债市场的预期波动性，这使周五115年的30天隐含波动率提高了。如图所示，指数上次交易在此级别是11月初

The sharp rise in the MOVE index also coincides with a decline in risk-taking in the cryptocurrency market. BTC is currently trading at around $82,000, having failed to break the $90,000 level despite some analysts forecasting price rallies to $90,000 and higher.

移动指数的急剧上升也随加密货币市场的冒险下降而汇聚一致。 BTC目前的交易价格约为82,000美元，尽管有些分析师预测价格集会至90,000美元和更高，但未能打破90,000美元的水平。

The latest U.S. inflation data for February came in softer-than-expected, which would strengthen the case for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. The reading also encouraged some analysts to forecast a bitcoin price recovery.

2月份的美国通货膨胀数据比预期柔和，这将加强削减美联储利率的情况。阅读还鼓励一些分析师预测比特币价格恢复。

"With inflation cooling and recession fears still looming but not worsening, Bitcoin could be on the verge of its next major breakout, pushing past the stubborn sub-$90K range," said Matt Mena, Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares, in an email.

21Shares的加密研究策略师Matt Mena表示：“由于通货膨胀冷却和衰退的担忧仍然存在，但并没有恶化，比特币可能正处于下一个重大突破的边缘，超越了顽固的低于$ 90K的范围。”

Any upswing, however, could unfold slower than expected.

但是，任何上升的展开都可能比预期的要慢。