Toncoin的[TON] 19.54％的每月集會將其定位為表現最佳的高額資產

Toncoin的[TON] 19.54％的每月集會將其定位為表現最好的高額資產。但是，它的短暫偏差高於$ 4的水平，面臨迅速的拒絕，表明當地的潛在疲憊。

Toncoin's [TON] impressive 19.54% monthly rally has catapulted it to the top of the high-cap performers. However, its brief attempt to break above the $4 resistance level faced swift rejection, hinting at local exhaustion.

Toncoin的[TON]令人印象深刻的19.54％的每月集會將其躍升至高額表演者的頂部。但是，它的短暫嘗試超過了4美元的電阻水平，遭到迅速拒絕，這暗示了當地的精疲力盡。

On the other hand, a shift in market sentiment is evident, transitioning from anxiety to denial. In the context of market psychology, denial occurs when participants disregard early signs of trend exhaustion, anticipating further continuation.

另一方面，從焦慮轉變為拒絕，市場情緒的轉變是顯而易見的。在市場心理學的背景下，當參與者無視趨勢精疲力盡的早期跡象，預計會進一步延續時，就會發生拒絕。

With this in mind, can Toncoin prevent a mass capitulation and set the stage for a strong supply squeeze, or is the current rally setting up for distribution?

考慮到這一點，噸幣是否可以防止大規模投降並為強烈的供應壓縮奠定基礎，還是當前的集會設置用於分發？

Current market standing: Battling $4 resistance

當前市場站立：與$ 4抵抗作鬥爭

當前市場站立：與$ 4抵抗作鬥爭

As seen on the 1D price chart, Toncoin bounced back to test the $2.45 zone, a key liquidity level last touched in March 2024. The subsequent recovery was swift, but the $4 barrier has proven to be a strong determinant of price trends.

從一維價格圖表中可以看出，湯幣彈回了測試2.45美元的區域，這是2024年3月的主要流動性水平。隨後的恢復速度很快，但事實證明，4美元的障礙是價格趨勢的強大決定因素。

The latest breakout attempt saw TON pierce through $4, but sellers quickly stepped in to absorb the liquidity. This rejection, despite the absence of clear overextended signals, underscores local distribution dynamics.

最新的突破嘗試使Ton Pierce售價4美元，但賣家很快就介入以吸收流動性。儘管沒有明確的過度擴展信號，但這種拒絕強調了局部分佈動態。

Consequently, shorts were able to capitalize, leading to the forced liquidation of $340 million in open positions. This mass liquidation event, also known as a "de-leveraging event," contributed to the pullback that brought TON back to $3.80 at the time of writing.

因此，短褲能夠大寫，導致強迫清算3.4億美元的空缺職位。這個大規模清算活動，也稱為“去槓桿活動”，導致了在撰寫本文時的回調，使TON恢復了3.80美元。

Now, as the price is staging another push toward $4, the $3.93 supply zone becomes a pivotal level, where 5.18 million addresses have a combined holding of 795.50 million Toncoin.

現在，隨著價格又推向4美元的價格，3.93美元的供應區成為一個關鍵水平，其中518萬個地址的合併持有7.955億噸幣。

A rejection at this zone could catalyze a cascading sell order, putting 3.12 billion TON at risk of distribution.

對該區域的拒絕可能會催化級聯的賣出訂單，使31.2億噸的分配風險。

If there's a failure to sustain bullish momentum, it might induce another short squeeze, ultimately extending consolidation within a liquidity trap.

如果沒有維持看漲的動力，它可能會引起另一個短暫的擠壓，最終在流動性陷阱中擴展了整合。

However, there's a silver lining. The market sentiment is shifting into the denial phase. This poses a big question: will TON investors exhibit the conviction needed for a breakout, or is a deeper re-accumulation phase inevitable?

但是，有一線希望。市場情緒正在轉移到拒絕階段。這提出了一個大問題：噸投資者會表現出突破所需的信念，還是不可避免的更深層次的重新蓄能階段？

Assessing Toncoin's next move: HODL or capitulate?

評估噸幣的下一步行動：hodl還是屈服？

評估噸幣的下一步行動：hodl還是屈服？

Currently, whales hold a dominant 66.77% of Toncoin's total supply, making their actions a key market signal. Over the past week, whale net inflows surged by an incredible 2159.82%, a clear indication of significant accumulation.

目前，鯨魚占托幣總供應量的66.77％，這使其行動成為關鍵市場信號。在過去的一周中，鯨魚的淨流入湧入了令人難以置信的2159.82％，這清楚地表明了大量積累。

This accumulation aligns with Toncoin's breakout from its $3.35 consolidation range, suggesting increased buy-side interest.

這種累積與托幣的突破相吻合，從其3.35美元的合併範圍起，表明購買端利息的增加。

The sharp uptick in whale activity suggests that large holders are positioning for a continuation of the bullish trend, potentially disregarding any signs of trend reversal.

鯨魚活動的急劇上升表明，大型持有人正在定位看漲趨勢，有可能無視趨勢逆轉的任何跡象。

If this pattern holds, even after a retest of $3.93, a move past the $4 resistance zone appears increasingly probable, especially with a 7.70% increase in Open Interest (OI) in the derivatives market.

如果這種模式成立，即使經過3.93美元的重新估算，超過4美元的電阻區的舉動似乎越來越可能，尤其是在衍生產品市場中開放利息（OI）增加了7.70％。

However, failure to maintain support at $3.93 could trigger cascading liquidations, putting the current open positions at risk.

但是，未能將支持保持在$ 3.93的情況下，可能會觸發級聯清算，從而使當前的開放位置處於危險之中。

To confirm a move above $4, capitulation must be absorbed. While the prevailing signals are bullish, monitoring these critical levels closely will be crucial in the near term.

要確認超過4美元的搬遷，必須吸收投降。儘管普遍的信號是看好的，但在短期內密切監視這些關鍵水平至關重要。