Toncoin的[TON] 19.54％的每月集会将其定位为表现最佳的高额资产

Toncoin的[TON] 19.54％的每月集会将其定位为表现最好的高额资产。但是，它的短暂偏差高于$ 4的水平，面临迅速的拒绝，表明当地的潜在疲惫。

Toncoin's [TON] impressive 19.54% monthly rally has catapulted it to the top of the high-cap performers. However, its brief attempt to break above the $4 resistance level faced swift rejection, hinting at local exhaustion.

Toncoin的[TON]令人印象深刻的19.54％的每月集会将其跃升至高额表演者的顶部。但是，它的短暂尝试超过了4美元的电阻水平，遭到迅速拒绝，这暗示了当地的精疲力尽。

On the other hand, a shift in market sentiment is evident, transitioning from anxiety to denial. In the context of market psychology, denial occurs when participants disregard early signs of trend exhaustion, anticipating further continuation.

另一方面，从焦虑转变为拒绝，市场情绪的转变是显而易见的。在市场心理学的背景下，当参与者无视趋势精疲力尽的早期迹象，预计会进一步延续时，就会发生拒绝。

With this in mind, can Toncoin prevent a mass capitulation and set the stage for a strong supply squeeze, or is the current rally setting up for distribution?

考虑到这一点，吨币是否可以防止大规模投降并为强烈的供应压缩奠定基础，还是当前的集会设置用于分发？

Current market standing: Battling $4 resistance

当前市场站立：与$ 4抵抗作斗争

当前市场站立：与$ 4抵抗作斗争

As seen on the 1D price chart, Toncoin bounced back to test the $2.45 zone, a key liquidity level last touched in March 2024. The subsequent recovery was swift, but the $4 barrier has proven to be a strong determinant of price trends.

从一维价格图表中可以看出，汤币弹回了测试2.45美元的区域，这是2024年3月的主要流动性水平。随后的恢复速度很快，但事实证明，4美元的障碍是价格趋势的强大决定因素。

The latest breakout attempt saw TON pierce through $4, but sellers quickly stepped in to absorb the liquidity. This rejection, despite the absence of clear overextended signals, underscores local distribution dynamics.

最新的突破尝试使Ton Pierce售价4美元，但卖家很快就介入以吸收流动性。尽管没有明确的过度扩展信号，但这种拒绝强调了局部分布动态。

Consequently, shorts were able to capitalize, leading to the forced liquidation of $340 million in open positions. This mass liquidation event, also known as a "de-leveraging event," contributed to the pullback that brought TON back to $3.80 at the time of writing.

因此，短裤能够大写，导致强迫清算3.4亿美元的空缺职位。这个大规模清算活动，也称为“去杠杆活动”，导致了在撰写本文时的回调，使TON恢复了3.80美元。

Now, as the price is staging another push toward $4, the $3.93 supply zone becomes a pivotal level, where 5.18 million addresses have a combined holding of 795.50 million Toncoin.

现在，随着价格又推向4美元的价格，3.93美元的供应区成为一个关键水平，其中518万个地址的合并持有7.955亿吨币。

A rejection at this zone could catalyze a cascading sell order, putting 3.12 billion TON at risk of distribution.

对该区域的拒绝可能会催化级联的卖出订单，使31.2亿吨的分配风险。

If there's a failure to sustain bullish momentum, it might induce another short squeeze, ultimately extending consolidation within a liquidity trap.

如果没有维持看涨的动力，它可能会引起另一个短暂的挤压，最终在流动性陷阱中扩展了整合。

However, there's a silver lining. The market sentiment is shifting into the denial phase. This poses a big question: will TON investors exhibit the conviction needed for a breakout, or is a deeper re-accumulation phase inevitable?

但是，有一线希望。市场情绪正在转移到拒绝阶段。这提出了一个大问题：吨投资者会表现出突破所需的信念，还是不可避免的更深层次的重新蓄能阶段？

Assessing Toncoin's next move: HODL or capitulate?

评估吨币的下一步行动：hodl还是屈服？

评估吨币的下一步行动：hodl还是屈服？

Currently, whales hold a dominant 66.77% of Toncoin's total supply, making their actions a key market signal. Over the past week, whale net inflows surged by an incredible 2159.82%, a clear indication of significant accumulation.

目前，鲸鱼占托币总供应量的66.77％，这使其行动成为关键市场信号。在过去的一周中，鲸鱼的净流入涌入了令人难以置信的2159.82％，这清楚地表明了大量积累。

This accumulation aligns with Toncoin's breakout from its $3.35 consolidation range, suggesting increased buy-side interest.

这种累积与托币的突破相吻合，从其3.35美元的合并范围起，表明购买端利息的增加。

The sharp uptick in whale activity suggests that large holders are positioning for a continuation of the bullish trend, potentially disregarding any signs of trend reversal.

鲸鱼活动的急剧上升表明，大型持有人正在定位看涨趋势，有可能无视趋势逆转的任何迹象。

If this pattern holds, even after a retest of $3.93, a move past the $4 resistance zone appears increasingly probable, especially with a 7.70% increase in Open Interest (OI) in the derivatives market.

如果这种模式成立，即使经过3.93美元的重新估算，超过4美元的电阻区的举动似乎越来越可能，尤其是在衍生产品市场中开放利息（OI）增加了7.70％。

However, failure to maintain support at $3.93 could trigger cascading liquidations, putting the current open positions at risk.

但是，未能将支持保持在$ 3.93的情况下，可能会触发级联清算，从而使当前的开放位置处于危险之中。

To confirm a move above $4, capitulation must be absorbed. While the prevailing signals are bullish, monitoring these critical levels closely will be crucial in the near term.

要确认超过4美元的搬迁，必须吸收投降。尽管普遍的信号是看好的，但在短期内密切监视这些关键水平至关重要。