Tom Lee 預測 2025 年比特幣 (BTC) 將達到 25 萬美元

Tom Lee 是 Fundstrat Global Advisors 的研究主管。他正確地預測了去年股市的反彈，使標準普爾 500 指數擺脫了熊市區域。

Fundstrat Global Advisors head of research Tom Lee earlier this year outlined his three-point investment thesis for Bitcoin during an interview with CNBC: First, he said, demand for it is still rising due to the growth of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs); second, the supply of newly minted Bitcoin has shrunk due to the recent halving of its block subsidies; and third, interest rates are falling, which is generally good for risk assets.

Fundstrat Global Advisors 研究主管Tom Lee 今年早些時候在接受CNBC 採訪時概述了他對比特幣的三點投資論點：首先，他表示，由於現貨比特幣交易所交易基金(ETF) 的增長，對比特幣的需求仍在上升。其次，由於近期區塊補貼減半，新鑄造的比特幣供應量減少；第三，利率下降，通常有利於風險資產。

Here's a closer look at each of those factors.

以下是每個因素的詳細分析。

Spot Bitcoin ETFs: After the Securities and Exchange Commission gave its approval, 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs hit the U.S. markets in January 2024. Those funds let investors add Bitcoin to their existing brokerage accounts, which is easier (and often cheaper) than maintaining a separate account with a cryptocurrency exchange. Consequently, spot Bitcoin ETFs should continue to boost demand for the crypto among retail and institutional investors.

現貨比特幣ETF：在美國證券交易委員會批准後，11 個現貨比特幣ETF 於2024 年1 月登陸美國市場。的經紀帳戶更容易（而且通常更便宜）。因此，現貨比特幣 ETF 應會繼續刺激散戶和機構投資者對加密貨幣的需求。

Indeed, Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at crypto index fund manager Bitwise Asset Management, recently wrote, "Bitcoin ETFs are being adopted by institutions at the fastest rate of any ETF in history." That is particularly good news for those who hold Bitcoin because institutional investors have $120 trillion in assets under management, and the price of Bitcoin should trend higher as they allocate more funds to it.

事實上，加密貨幣指數基金管理公司 Bitwise Asset Management 的首席投資長 Matt Hougan 最近寫道：“比特幣 ETF 正在以歷史上最快的速度被機構採用。”這對於持有比特幣的人來說尤其是好消息，因為機構投資者管理著 120 兆美元的資產，隨著他們向比特幣分配更多資金，比特幣的價格應該會走高。

Analysts have declared spot Bitcoin ETFs to be the most successful ETF launches in history. But the iShares Bitcoin Trust by BlackRock has been particularly impressive. It hit $10 billion in assets faster than any ETF on record, according to The Wall Street Journal. It now has $35 billion in net inflows, which is more than the other 10 spot Bitcoin ETFs combined.

分析師宣稱現貨比特幣 ETF 是史上最成功的 ETF 發行。但貝萊德的 iShares 比特幣信託基金尤其令人印象深刻。根據《華爾街日報》報道，它的資產達到 100 億美元的速度比有記錄以來任何 ETF 都要快。目前它的淨流入量為 350 億美元，超過其他 10 隻現貨比特幣 ETF 的總和。

Bitcoin halving events: Block rewards are financial incentives that combine transaction fees and block subsidies (newly minted Bitcoin). Block rewards are paid to crypto miners for validating transactions, but the subsidies are reduced by 50% each time 210,000 blocks are added to the Bitcoin blockchain. That happens approximately once every four years.

比特幣減半事件：區塊獎勵是結合了交易費用和區塊補貼（新鑄造的比特幣）的經濟激勵措施。區塊獎勵是支付給驗證交易的加密貨幣礦工的，但每向比特幣區塊鏈添加 210,000 個區塊，補貼就會減少 50%。這種情況大約每四年發生一次。

These halving events are part of the system that limits Bitcoin's ultimate total supply to 21 million coins, and they decrease selling pressure by limiting the amount of newly minted currency that miners will be able to sell. The last halving took place in April, when Bitcoin traded at $64,000. But historically, Bitcoin's price chart has usually peaked one to two years after a halving. For instance, in November 2021, Bitcoin peaked at 690% above its price at the third halving, which took place in May 2020.

這些減半事件是限制比特幣最終總供應量為 2,100 萬枚比特幣的系統的一部分，它們透過限制礦工能夠出售的新鑄造貨幣的數量來減輕拋售壓力。上一次減半發生在 4 月份，當時比特幣交易價格為 64,000 美元。但從歷史上看，比特幣的價格圖表通常會在減半後一到兩年達到頂峰。例如，2021 年 11 月，比特幣在 2020 年 5 月第三次減半時的價格達到高峰 690%。

Interest rate cuts: In September, the Federal Reserve began lowering the federal funds rate, a benchmark interest rate that influences most other rates across the economy. Bitcoin has historically performed best in low-rate environments, perhaps because investors are more comfortable with risk assets when lending is less restrictive. That said, Bitcoin is a relatively new asset class, so the amount of historical data about it is limited.

降息：9月份，聯準會開始降低聯邦基金利率，這是影響整個經濟中大多數其他利率的基準利率。比特幣歷來在低利率環境下表現最好，或許是因為當貸款限制較少時，投資人對風險資產更放心。也就是說，比特幣是一種相對較新的資產類別，因此有關它的歷史資料量有限。