Tom Lee 预测 2025 年比特币 (BTC) 将达到 25 万美元

Tom Lee 是 Fundstrat Global Advisors 的研究主管。他正确地预测了去年股市的反弹，使标准普尔 500 指数摆脱了熊市区域。

Fundstrat Global Advisors head of research Tom Lee earlier this year outlined his three-point investment thesis for Bitcoin during an interview with CNBC: First, he said, demand for it is still rising due to the growth of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs); second, the supply of newly minted Bitcoin has shrunk due to the recent halving of its block subsidies; and third, interest rates are falling, which is generally good for risk assets.

Fundstrat Global Advisors 研究主管 Tom Lee 今年早些时候在接受 CNBC 采访时概述了他对比特币的三点投资论点：首先，他表示，由于现货比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的增长，对比特币的需求仍在上升。 ）；其次，由于近期区块补贴减半，新铸造的比特币供应量有所减少；第三，利率下降，这通常有利于风险资产。

Here's a closer look at each of those factors.

以下是对每个因素的详细分析。

Spot Bitcoin ETFs: After the Securities and Exchange Commission gave its approval, 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs hit the U.S. markets in January 2024. Those funds let investors add Bitcoin to their existing brokerage accounts, which is easier (and often cheaper) than maintaining a separate account with a cryptocurrency exchange. Consequently, spot Bitcoin ETFs should continue to boost demand for the crypto among retail and institutional investors.

现货比特币 ETF：在美国证券交易委员会批准后，11 个现货比特币 ETF 于 2024 年 1 月登陆美国市场。这些基金允许投资者将比特币添加到他们现有的经纪账户中，这比维持单独的经纪账户更容易（而且通常更便宜）。加密货币交易所的帐户。因此，现货比特币 ETF 应会继续刺激散户和机构投资者对加密货币的需求。

Indeed, Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at crypto index fund manager Bitwise Asset Management, recently wrote, "Bitcoin ETFs are being adopted by institutions at the fastest rate of any ETF in history." That is particularly good news for those who hold Bitcoin because institutional investors have $120 trillion in assets under management, and the price of Bitcoin should trend higher as they allocate more funds to it.

事实上，加密货币指数基金管理公司 Bitwise Asset Management 的首席投资官 Matt Hougan 最近写道：“比特币 ETF 正在以历史上最快的速度被机构采用。”这对于那些持有比特币的人来说尤其是好消息，因为机构投资者管理着 120 万亿美元的资产，随着他们向比特币分配更多资金，比特币的价格应该会走高。

Analysts have declared spot Bitcoin ETFs to be the most successful ETF launches in history. But the iShares Bitcoin Trust by BlackRock has been particularly impressive. It hit $10 billion in assets faster than any ETF on record, according to The Wall Street Journal. It now has $35 billion in net inflows, which is more than the other 10 spot Bitcoin ETFs combined.

分析师宣称现货比特币 ETF 是历史上最成功的 ETF 发行。但贝莱德的 iShares 比特币信托基金尤其令人印象深刻。据《华尔街日报》报道，它的资产达到 100 亿美元的速度比有记录以来任何 ETF 都要快。目前它的净流入量为 350 亿美元，超过其他 10 只现货比特币 ETF 的总和。

Bitcoin halving events: Block rewards are financial incentives that combine transaction fees and block subsidies (newly minted Bitcoin). Block rewards are paid to crypto miners for validating transactions, but the subsidies are reduced by 50% each time 210,000 blocks are added to the Bitcoin blockchain. That happens approximately once every four years.

比特币减半事件：区块奖励是结合了交易费用和区块补贴（新铸造的比特币）的经济激励措施。区块奖励是支付给验证交易的加密货币矿工的，但每向比特币区块链添加 210,000 个区块，补贴就会减少 50%。这种情况大约每四年发生一次。

These halving events are part of the system that limits Bitcoin's ultimate total supply to 21 million coins, and they decrease selling pressure by limiting the amount of newly minted currency that miners will be able to sell. The last halving took place in April, when Bitcoin traded at $64,000. But historically, Bitcoin's price chart has usually peaked one to two years after a halving. For instance, in November 2021, Bitcoin peaked at 690% above its price at the third halving, which took place in May 2020.

这些减半事件是限制比特币最终总供应量为 2100 万枚比特币的系统的一部分，它们通过限制矿工能够出售的新铸造货币的数量来减轻抛售压力。上一次减半发生在 4 月份，当时比特币交易价格为 64,000 美元。但从历史上看，比特币的价格图表通常会在减半后一到两年达到顶峰。例如，2021 年 11 月，比特币在 2020 年 5 月第三次减半时的价格达到峰值 690%。

Interest rate cuts: In September, the Federal Reserve began lowering the federal funds rate, a benchmark interest rate that influences most other rates across the economy. Bitcoin has historically performed best in low-rate environments, perhaps because investors are more comfortable with risk assets when lending is less restrictive. That said, Bitcoin is a relatively new asset class, so the amount of historical data about it is limited.

降息：9月份，美联储开始降低联邦基金利率，这是影响整个经济中大多数其他利率的基准利率。比特币历来在低利率环境下表现最好，这或许是因为当贷款限制较少时，投资者对风险资产更加放心。也就是说，比特币是一种相对较新的资产类别，因此有关它的历史数据量有限。