職位：彭博商品策略師邁克·麥格隆（Mike McGlone）警告美國市場上的“大規模更正”

彭博商品策略師邁克·麥格隆（Mike McGlone）說，美國市場有可能進行大規模糾正，這可能會涉及比特幣（BTC），石油和股票的價格。

The US market is due for a 'massive' correction that will crush Bitcoin (BTC), oil and stocks, claims Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone.

彭博策略師邁克·麥格隆（Mike McGlone）稱，美國市場將進行“大規模”更正，該更正將粉碎比特幣（BTC），石油和股票。

In a post on X, previously known as Twitter, McGlone says the US has a “self-correcting mechanism” that may push back against President Trump’s tariff war, which could create market chaos.

McGlone在以前稱為Twitter的X上的帖子中說，美國具有“自我糾正機制”，可能會反對特朗普總統的關稅戰爭，這可能會造成市場混亂。

The analyst shares a chart suggesting that the S&P 500 vs. GDP ratio and S&P 500 vs. gold ratio are both at elevated levels – a setup that has historically marked stock market crashes, such as in the 1930s, the late 1990s, and 2008.

該分析師分享了一張圖表，表明標準普爾500比較GDP比率和500標準普爾比率均處於升高水平 - 這種設置歷史上標誌著股市崩潰，例如1930年代，1930年代，1990年代後期和2008年。

Such an event, or “reversion,” could result in significant drops in stocks, Bitcoin oil, copper and bonds, according to McGlone.

據McGlone稱，這種事件或“恢復”可能會導致股票，比特幣油，銅和債券的大幅下降。

“America’s self-correcting mechanism is unstoppable. If unprecedented tariffs and austerity don’t work, pushback will come in the next elections. If the great rebalance attempt works, it could reset world order underpinnings for the coming century.

“美國的自我糾正機制是不可阻擋的。如果前所未有的關稅和緊縮政策不起作用，下次選舉將會出現。如果重新平衡的嘗試有效，它可以重新安置未來世紀的世界秩序基礎。

The problem is that the discombobulation is coming with US stock market cap vs. GDP and the rest of the world, the highest in about 100 years.

問題在於，美國股票市場上限與GDP及世界其他地區的不滿，這是大約100年來最高的。

My normal reversion base case:

我的正常歸還基本案例：

– 50% drawdown in the US stock market

- 美國股票市場中的50％的跌幅

– $40 a barrel crude oil

- 每桶原油40美元

– $3 per pound copper

- 每磅3美元銅

– 3% US 10-year yield

- 美國10年收益率3％

– $10,000 Bitcoin, 90% drawdowns in most of the millions of cryptocurrencies

- 10,000美元的比特幣，在數百萬個加密貨幣中的大多數中降低了90％

– $4,000 gold, the outlier due to not being simple reversion”

- 4,000美元的黃金，由於不是簡單的回歸而導致的異常值”

McGlone adds that the magnitude of the potential downside moves is “normal” in historical terms.

McGlone補充說，從歷史上講，潛在的下利移動的幅度是“正常”的。

At time of writing, Bitcoin is changing hands at $87,529.

在撰寫本文時，比特幣以87,529美元的價格易手。

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