职位：彭博商品策略师迈克·麦格隆（Mike McGlone）警告美国市场上的“大规模更正”

彭博商品策略师迈克·麦格隆（Mike McGlone）说，美国市场有可能进行大规模纠正，这可能会涉及比特币（BTC），石油和股票的价格。

The US market is due for a 'massive' correction that will crush Bitcoin (BTC), oil and stocks, claims Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone.

彭博策略师迈克·麦格隆（Mike McGlone）称，美国市场将进行“大规模”更正，该更正将粉碎比特币（BTC），石油和股票。

In a post on X, previously known as Twitter, McGlone says the US has a “self-correcting mechanism” that may push back against President Trump’s tariff war, which could create market chaos.

McGlone在以前称为Twitter的X上的帖子中说，美国具有“自我纠正机制”，可能会反对特朗普总统的关税战争，这可能会造成市场混乱。

The analyst shares a chart suggesting that the S&P 500 vs. GDP ratio and S&P 500 vs. gold ratio are both at elevated levels – a setup that has historically marked stock market crashes, such as in the 1930s, the late 1990s, and 2008.

该分析师分享了一张图表，表明标准普尔500比较GDP比率和500标准普尔比率均处于升高水平 - 这种设置历史上标志着股市崩溃，例如1930年代，1930年代，1990年代后期和2008年。

Such an event, or “reversion,” could result in significant drops in stocks, Bitcoin oil, copper and bonds, according to McGlone.

据McGlone称，这种事件或“恢复”可能会导致股票，比特币油，铜和债券的大幅下降。

“America’s self-correcting mechanism is unstoppable. If unprecedented tariffs and austerity don’t work, pushback will come in the next elections. If the great rebalance attempt works, it could reset world order underpinnings for the coming century.

“美国的自我纠正机制是不可阻挡的。如果前所未有的关税和紧缩政策不起作用，下次选举将会出现。如果重新平衡的尝试有效，它可以重新安置未来世纪的世界秩序基础。

The problem is that the discombobulation is coming with US stock market cap vs. GDP and the rest of the world, the highest in about 100 years.

问题在于，美国股票市场上限与GDP及世界其他地区的不满，这是大约100年来最高的。

My normal reversion base case:

我的正常归还基本案例：

– 50% drawdown in the US stock market

- 美国股票市场中的50％的跌幅

– $40 a barrel crude oil

- 每桶原油40美元

– $3 per pound copper

- 每磅3美元铜

– 3% US 10-year yield

- 美国10年收益率3％

– $10,000 Bitcoin, 90% drawdowns in most of the millions of cryptocurrencies

- 10,000美元的比特币，在数百万个加密货币中的大多数中降低了90％

– $4,000 gold, the outlier due to not being simple reversion”

- 4,000美元的黄金，由于不是简单的回归而导致的异常值”

McGlone adds that the magnitude of the potential downside moves is “normal” in historical terms.

McGlone补充说，从历史上讲，潜在的下利移动的幅度是“正常”的。

At time of writing, Bitcoin is changing hands at $87,529.

在撰写本文时，比特币以87,529美元的价格易手。

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