是時候重新考慮“數字黃金”敘事，因為比特幣軌道股票拋售了

世界上最受歡迎的加密貨幣比特幣領導了周日的數字硬幣拋售，低於其79,000美元至80,000美元的支持水平

The world’s most popular cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, has led Sunday’s digital coin selloff, dipping below its US$79,000 to US$80,000 support level – a position it has held for the past month despite wider market ructions – as volatility grips crypto markets and investor sentiment shifts to ‘risk-off’.

世界上最受歡迎的加密貨幣比特幣領導了周日的數字硬幣拋售，低於其79,000美元至80,000美元的支持水平，這是過去一個月的職位，儘管市場上的市場更廣泛，但由於波動性抓住了加密市場和投資者的情緒轉變，以“冒險冒險”。

Bitcoin is currently trading at US$76,869 per coin, down nearly 12% on the month-to-date.

比特幣目前的交易價格為每枚硬幣76,869美元，近12％的月至日期下降了近12％。

This decline has been particularly galling for Australian crypto investors, with the AUD’s underperformance against the USD and Euro exacerbating losses.

對於澳大利亞加密貨幣投資者來說，這種下降尤其令人震驚，而AUD的表現不佳和歐元加劇的損失。

For Charlie Sherry, head of finance and a crypto analyst at trading platform BTC Markets, Bitcoin’s Sunday selloff was “unsurprising”, given that it occurred at “a time when global markets are generally more illiquid”.

對於貿易平台BTC市場的財務主管和加密分析師查理·雪利（Charlie Sherry）來說，比特幣的周日拋售“毫不奇怪”，鑑於它發生在“全球市場通常更加流動性的時代”。

“As a result, a few large selloffs can have a disproportionate impact, pushing prices down quickly.”

“因此，一些大型拋售可能會產生不成比例的影響，從而迅速降低價格。”

Like the mass equities selloff, the trigger for the crypto retreat is “no mystery”, according to Sherry, being a direct response to the Trump Administration’s tariff agenda, which is bulldozing longstanding trade relationships.

雪利酒認為，像大眾股票的拋售一樣，加密貨幣撤退的觸發因素是“沒有神秘的”，這是對特朗普政府的關稅議程的直接回應，後者正在推斷長期以來的貿易關係。

“For a moment, it seemed as though crypto might hold steady, but with the 24/7 nature of crypto markets, investors woke up on Sunday in full ‘sell mode’,” Sherry said.

Sherry說：“有一會兒，似乎加密貨幣可能會保持穩定，但是隨著加密貨幣市場的24/7性質，投資者在周日以完全的“賣出模式”醒來。”

Trailing the path of equities sell-off, with the S&P 500 also losing 10% over the last week, Bitcoin is showing an increasingly strong correlation with risk assets, he noted – hardly the safe haven holding it is often touted as by its most ardent evangelists.

他指出，比特幣落後於股票拋售的道路，標準普爾500指數在上周也損失了10％，比特幣顯示出與風險資產的越來越大的相關性 - 幾乎不可能被其最熱心的福音傳教士吹捧為避風港。

Gold, seen as the “traditional safe-haven asset” in times of economic tumult, surged to US$3,167 at the end of the Q1 – up nearly 18% over the quarter. For Sherry, this divergence undermines the narrative that Bitcoin can and should be regarded as a digital analogue of gold holdings.

黃金被視為經濟騷動時期的“傳統避風勢資產”，在第一季度結束時飆升至3,167美元，在本季度增長了近18％。對於雪利酒而言，這種差異破壞了比特幣可以並且應該被視為黃金控股的數字類似物的敘述。

“Bitcoin hasn’t seen the same kind of demand that gold has, despite both assets sharing similar characteristics.”

“儘管這兩種資產都具有相似的特徵，但比特幣並沒有看到黃金的需求。”

According to some estimates, Bitcoin’s average annual volatility over the past decade sits at 46.31%; this contrasts sharply with gold’s 15.44% volatility rating over the past 30 years.

根據一些估計，比特幣在過去十年中的平均年平均波動率為46.31％；這與過去30年中Gold的15.44％波動率評級形成鮮明對比。

Sherry notes that crypto investor sentiment has taken a “decidedly cautious turn”, now sitting within the ‘extreme fear’ range of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.

雪利酒指出，加密投資者的情緒已經“絕對謹慎的轉變”，現在坐落在Crypto Fear＆Greed Index的“極端恐懼”範圍內。

“This suggests a sense of trepidation among crypto investors as they weigh the broader economic uncertainties.”

“這表明加密投資者權衡更廣泛的經濟不確定性時，他們會感到恐懼。”

Triggers for a Bitcoin breakout

觸發比特幣突破

Bitcoin’s sub US$79,000 decline – more than half the value of its pre-Trump inauguration high-water mark of US$167,170 per coin hit on 18 January 2025 – marks “the bottom of the range after the all-time-high pullback”, Sherry said.

雪利酒說，比特幣的下降了79,000美元 - 超過其特朗普就職典禮高水位的價值的一半以上是2025年1月18日每幣167,170美元的售價 - 標記為“歷史最高回馬後的範圍底部”。

The next key support lies around $72,000 – the pre-Trump election high point.

下一個關鍵支持約為72,000美元 - 前大選高點。

Sherry notes two key breakout triggers for Bitcoin investors to watch for:

雪利酒指出，比特幣投資者要注意的兩個關鍵突破觸發器：

“As the markets remain highly sensitive to macroeconomic and geopolitical events, Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim the $80,000 threshold and hold it will likely dictate the next phase of its price movement. Until then, volatility is expected to remain a prominent feature of the market,” he concluded.

他總結說：“由於市場對宏觀經濟和地緣政治事件仍然高度敏感，比特幣能夠收回80,000美元的門檻並認為它可能決定其價格轉移的下一階段。直到那時，預計波動性仍然是市場的重要特徵。”