是时候重新考虑“数字黄金”叙事，因为比特币轨道股票抛售了

世界上最受欢迎的加密货币比特币领导了周日的数字硬币抛售，低于其79,000美元至80,000美元的支持水平

The world’s most popular cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, has led Sunday’s digital coin selloff, dipping below its US$79,000 to US$80,000 support level – a position it has held for the past month despite wider market ructions – as volatility grips crypto markets and investor sentiment shifts to ‘risk-off’.

世界上最受欢迎的加密货币比特币领导了周日的数字硬币抛售，低于其79,000美元至80,000美元的支持水平，这是过去一个月的职位，尽管市场上的市场更广泛，但由于波动性抓住了加密市场和投资者的情绪转变，以“冒险冒险”。

Bitcoin is currently trading at US$76,869 per coin, down nearly 12% on the month-to-date.

比特币目前的交易价格为每枚硬币76,869美元，近12％的月至日期下降了近12％。

This decline has been particularly galling for Australian crypto investors, with the AUD’s underperformance against the USD and Euro exacerbating losses.

对于澳大利亚加密货币投资者来说，这种下降尤其令人震惊，而AUD的表现不佳和欧元加剧的损失。

For Charlie Sherry, head of finance and a crypto analyst at trading platform BTC Markets, Bitcoin’s Sunday selloff was “unsurprising”, given that it occurred at “a time when global markets are generally more illiquid”.

对于贸易平台BTC市场的财务主管和加密分析师查理·雪利（Charlie Sherry）来说，比特币的周日抛售“毫不奇怪”，鉴于它发生在“全球市场通常更加流动性的时代”。

“As a result, a few large selloffs can have a disproportionate impact, pushing prices down quickly.”

“因此，一些大型抛售可能会产生不成比例的影响，从而迅速降低价格。”

Like the mass equities selloff, the trigger for the crypto retreat is “no mystery”, according to Sherry, being a direct response to the Trump Administration’s tariff agenda, which is bulldozing longstanding trade relationships.

雪利酒认为，像大众股票的抛售一样，加密货币撤退的触发因素是“没有神秘的”，这是对特朗普政府的关税议程的直接回应，后者正在推断长期以来的贸易关系。

“For a moment, it seemed as though crypto might hold steady, but with the 24/7 nature of crypto markets, investors woke up on Sunday in full ‘sell mode’,” Sherry said.

Sherry说：“有一会儿，似乎加密货币可能会保持稳定，但是随着加密货币市场的24/7性质，投资者在周日以完全的“卖出模式”醒来。”

Trailing the path of equities sell-off, with the S&P 500 also losing 10% over the last week, Bitcoin is showing an increasingly strong correlation with risk assets, he noted – hardly the safe haven holding it is often touted as by its most ardent evangelists.

他指出，比特币落后于股票抛售的道路，标准普尔500指数在上周也损失了10％，比特币显示出与风险资产的越来越大的相关性 - 几乎不可能被其最热心的福音传教士吹捧为避风港。

Gold, seen as the “traditional safe-haven asset” in times of economic tumult, surged to US$3,167 at the end of the Q1 – up nearly 18% over the quarter. For Sherry, this divergence undermines the narrative that Bitcoin can and should be regarded as a digital analogue of gold holdings.

黄金被视为经济骚动时期的“传统避风势资产”，在第一季度结束时飙升至3,167美元，在本季度增长了近18％。对于雪利酒而言，这种差异破坏了比特币可以并且应该被视为黄金控股的数字类似物的叙述。

“Bitcoin hasn’t seen the same kind of demand that gold has, despite both assets sharing similar characteristics.”

“尽管这两种资产都具有相似的特征，但比特币并没有看到黄金的需求。”

According to some estimates, Bitcoin’s average annual volatility over the past decade sits at 46.31%; this contrasts sharply with gold’s 15.44% volatility rating over the past 30 years.

根据一些估计，比特币在过去十年中的平均年平均波动率为46.31％；这与过去30年中Gold的15.44％波动率评级形成鲜明对比。

Sherry notes that crypto investor sentiment has taken a “decidedly cautious turn”, now sitting within the ‘extreme fear’ range of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.

雪利酒指出，加密投资者的情绪已经“绝对谨慎的转变”，现在坐落在Crypto Fear＆Greed Index的“极端恐惧”范围内。

“This suggests a sense of trepidation among crypto investors as they weigh the broader economic uncertainties.”

“这表明加密投资者权衡更广泛的经济不确定性时，他们会感到恐惧。”

Triggers for a Bitcoin breakout

触发比特币突破

Bitcoin’s sub US$79,000 decline – more than half the value of its pre-Trump inauguration high-water mark of US$167,170 per coin hit on 18 January 2025 – marks “the bottom of the range after the all-time-high pullback”, Sherry said.

雪利酒说，比特币的下降了79,000美元 - 超过其特朗普就职典礼高水位的价值的一半以上是2025年1月18日每币167,170美元的售价 - 标记为“历史最高回马后的范围底部”。

The next key support lies around $72,000 – the pre-Trump election high point.

下一个关键支持约为72,000美元 - 前大选高点。

Sherry notes two key breakout triggers for Bitcoin investors to watch for:

雪利酒指出，比特币投资者要注意的两个关键突破触发器：

“As the markets remain highly sensitive to macroeconomic and geopolitical events, Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim the $80,000 threshold and hold it will likely dictate the next phase of its price movement. Until then, volatility is expected to remain a prominent feature of the market,” he concluded.

他总结说：“由于市场对宏观经济和地缘政治事件仍然高度敏感，比特币能够收回80,000美元的门槛并认为它可能决定其价格转移的下一阶段。直到那时，预计波动性仍然是市场的重要特征。”