Tether（USDT）湧入4.5億美元的交流提出了有關比特幣（BTC）價格動量的問題

加密貨幣領域在2025年2月的交流中見證了大量的紐約市（USDT），價值4.5億美元。StableCoin流動性的這一激增引起了人們對重新點燃比特幣（BTC）價格勢頭的潛力的興趣。

Cryptocurrency exchange data shows that Tether (USDT) inflows have reached a total of $450 million throughout February 25. This development has sparked interest in its potential impact on Bitcoin’s (BTC) price trajectory.

加密貨幣交換數據表明，Tether（USDT）流入在2月25日的總計4.5億美元。這一發展引發了對其對比特幣（BTC）價格軌蹟的潛在影響的興趣。

Historically, Bitcoin’s price movements have shown a strong correlation with the supply of USDT, which often precedes significant market shifts. Could these new inflows contribute to Bitcoin finally breaking past its $100K resistance, or might the market be setting itself up for another liquidity trap?

從歷史上看，比特幣的價格變動與USDT的供應有很強的相關性，後者通常在市場轉變之前。這些新的流入能否導致比特幣最終超越其$ 10萬美元的阻力，或者市場可能為另一個流動性陷阱設置自己？

The connection between Bitcoin and Tether becomes evident when analyzing past price trends. During mid-December 24, Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $108K as the circulating supply of USDT peaked at around 140 billion. However, after BTC's pullback to $91K, USDT supply saw a notable decrease, falling to 137 billion, which indicated a shift in market sentiment and hedging activity. This relationship suggests that an increase in USDT supply may contribute to renewed interest in Bitcoin, especially if that liquidity is directed towards spot demand rather than leverage.

在分析過去的價格趨勢時，比特幣與繫繩之間的聯繫變得很明顯。在12月24日中旬，比特幣達到了108,000美元的歷史最高點，因為USDT的循環供應達到了約1,400億美元。但是，在BTC的回調至9.1萬美元之後，USDT供應量顯著下降，下降到1370億美元，這表明市場情緒和對沖活動發生了變化。這種關係表明，USDT供應的增加可能會導致對比特幣的新興趣，尤其是如果流動性針對現貨需求而不是槓桿作用。

As of now, Tether’s circulating supply has surged to a new high of 141 billion, signaling that a large pool of capital is now available. When this capital enters exchanges, it has the potential to strengthen the support for Bitcoin, making a breakout above $100K more achievable. However, whether this influx is fueled by genuine demand or simply leveraged trades remains a critical factor in determining whether Bitcoin can maintain upward momentum.

截至目前，繫繩的循環供應已飆升至1410億新高的供應，這表明現在有大量資本可用。當這支資本進入交易所時，它有可能加強對比特幣的支持，從而使超過10萬美元的突破更加可實現。但是，這種湧入是由真正的需求推動還是簡單的槓桿交易仍然是確定比特幣是否可以維持向上勢頭的關鍵因素。

While the surge in USDT is encouraging, there is some caution surrounding the current market environment. Bitcoin’s inflows to exchanges have been higher than outflows, which points to weak spot demand. Instead, much of the liquidity is being absorbed by leveraged trades, as evidenced by the increasing Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR). The higher leverage in the market means that Bitcoin is more susceptible to long liquidation cascades, especially if its price moves downwards.

儘管USDT的激增令人鼓舞，但圍繞當前市場環境有一些謹慎的態度。比特幣向交換的流入量高於流出，這表明了弱點需求。取而代之的是，大部分流動性都被槓桿交易所吸收，如估計槓桿率增加（ELR）所證明的那樣。市場上較高的槓桿作用意味著比特幣更容易受到長時間清算級聯的影響，尤其是在其價格下降時。

This growing leverage market is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it can amplify price increases in the short term, but if the market turns, overleveraged positions may get liquidated, leading to a sharp correction in Bitcoin’s price. The lack of strong spot demand, combined with rising leverage, suggests that Bitcoin could face heightened volatility, making it a risky time for long-term investors to make aggressive bets.

這個不斷增長的槓桿市場是一把雙刃劍。一方面，它可以在短期內擴大價格上漲，但是如果市場轉彎，則可以清算過度的位置，從而導致比特幣的價格進行急劇糾正。缺乏強勁的點需求以及槓桿率上升，這表明比特幣可能面臨著增強的波動性，這使得長期投資者成為積極賭注的風險。

Another key factor to consider is the broader market sentiment. At present, market sentiment remains in the fear zone, and Bitcoin ETF accumulation is weak. This suggests that despite the surge in USDT inflows, the market is not experiencing the same level of optimism that often accompanies sustained bullish trends. If investors are not convinced about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, the recent surge in USDT could end up fueling short-term volatility rather than a lasting rally.

要考慮的另一個關鍵因素是更廣泛的市場情緒。目前，市場情緒仍然存在於恐懼區，比特幣ETF的積累很弱。這表明，儘管USDT流入激增，但市場並沒有經常伴隨持續的看漲趨勢的樂觀水平。如果投資者不相信比特幣的長期前景，那麼最近的USDT的激增最終可能會加劇短期波動，而不是持久的集會。

Moreover, if the current pattern of rising leverage continues without a substantial increase in spot buying, Bitcoin may find itself stuck in a liquidity trap. In this scenario, prices might temporarily rise, but without real support from spot demand, they could quickly reverse once the leveraged positions are unwound.

此外，如果目前的槓桿率上升的模式在現貨購買方面卻沒有大幅度增加，則比特幣可能會發現自己陷入了流動性陷阱。在這種情況下，價格可能會暫時上漲，但是如果沒有現貨需求的真正支持，一旦槓杆位置解開，它們就可以迅速扭轉。

In conclusion, while the $450 million USDT inflow signals potential support for Bitcoin, the overall market dynamics point to caution. A surge in leverage, combined with weak spot demand and uncertain sentiment, increases the risk of Bitcoin’s price action becoming more fragile in the short term. Traders should monitor how this influx of USDT translates into actual demand for Bitcoin and whether the market’s focus shifts from leverage back to real spot buying interest. Until then, caution is advised as Bitcoin faces potential volatility and price corrections.

總而言之，儘管4.5億美元的耗資流入信號對比特幣的潛在支持，但總體市場動態謹慎。槓桿率激增，加上弱點的需求和不確定的情緒，增加了比特幣價格行動在短期內變得更加脆弱的風險。交易者應監控這種USDT的湧入如何轉化為對比特幣的實際需求，以及市場的重點是否從槓桿率轉變為真正的現貨購買興趣。在此之前，由於比特幣面對潛在的波動性和價格更正，因此會謹慎行事。