Tether（USDT）涌入4.5亿美元的交流提出了有关比特币（BTC）价格动量的问题

加密货币领域在2025年2月的交流中见证了大量的纽约市（USDT），价值4.5亿美元。StableCoin流动性的这一激增引起了人们对重新点燃比特币（BTC）价格势头的潜力的兴趣。

Cryptocurrency exchange data shows that Tether (USDT) inflows have reached a total of $450 million throughout February 25. This development has sparked interest in its potential impact on Bitcoin’s (BTC) price trajectory.

加密货币交换数据表明，Tether（USDT）流入在2月25日的总计4.5亿美元。这一发展引发了对其对比特币（BTC）价格轨迹的潜在影响的兴趣。

Historically, Bitcoin’s price movements have shown a strong correlation with the supply of USDT, which often precedes significant market shifts. Could these new inflows contribute to Bitcoin finally breaking past its $100K resistance, or might the market be setting itself up for another liquidity trap?

从历史上看，比特币的价格变动与USDT的供应有很强的相关性，后者通常在市场转变之前。这些新的流入能否导致比特币最终超越其$ 10万美元的阻力，或者市场可能为另一个流动性陷阱设置自己？

The connection between Bitcoin and Tether becomes evident when analyzing past price trends. During mid-December 24, Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $108K as the circulating supply of USDT peaked at around 140 billion. However, after BTC's pullback to $91K, USDT supply saw a notable decrease, falling to 137 billion, which indicated a shift in market sentiment and hedging activity. This relationship suggests that an increase in USDT supply may contribute to renewed interest in Bitcoin, especially if that liquidity is directed towards spot demand rather than leverage.

在分析过去的价格趋势时，比特币与系绳之间的联系变得很明显。在12月24日中旬，比特币达到了108,000美元的历史最高点，因为USDT的循环供应达到了约1,400亿美元。但是，在BTC的回调至9.1万美元之后，USDT供应量显着下降，下降到1370亿美元，这表明市场情绪和对冲活动发生了变化。这种关系表明，USDT供应的增加可能会导致对比特币的新兴趣，尤其是如果流动性针对现货需求而不是杠杆作用。

As of now, Tether’s circulating supply has surged to a new high of 141 billion, signaling that a large pool of capital is now available. When this capital enters exchanges, it has the potential to strengthen the support for Bitcoin, making a breakout above $100K more achievable. However, whether this influx is fueled by genuine demand or simply leveraged trades remains a critical factor in determining whether Bitcoin can maintain upward momentum.

截至目前，系绳的循环供应已飙升至1410亿新高的供应，这表明现在有大量资本可用。当这支资本进入交易所时，它有可能加强对比特币的支持，从而使超过10万美元的突破更加可实现。但是，这种涌入是由真正的需求推动还是简单的杠杆交易仍然是确定比特币是否可以维持向上势头的关键因素。

While the surge in USDT is encouraging, there is some caution surrounding the current market environment. Bitcoin’s inflows to exchanges have been higher than outflows, which points to weak spot demand. Instead, much of the liquidity is being absorbed by leveraged trades, as evidenced by the increasing Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR). The higher leverage in the market means that Bitcoin is more susceptible to long liquidation cascades, especially if its price moves downwards.

尽管USDT的激增令人鼓舞，但围绕当前市场环境有一些谨慎的态度。比特币向交换的流入量高于流出，这表明了弱点需求。取而代之的是，大部分流动性都被杠杆交易所吸收，如估计杠杆率增加（ELR）所证明的那样。市场上较高的杠杆作用意味着比特币更容易受到长时间清算级联的影响，尤其是在其价格下降时。

This growing leverage market is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it can amplify price increases in the short term, but if the market turns, overleveraged positions may get liquidated, leading to a sharp correction in Bitcoin’s price. The lack of strong spot demand, combined with rising leverage, suggests that Bitcoin could face heightened volatility, making it a risky time for long-term investors to make aggressive bets.

这个不断增长的杠杆市场是一把双刃剑。一方面，它可以在短期内扩大价格上涨，但是如果市场转弯，则可以清算过度的位置，从而导致比特币的价格进行急剧纠正。缺乏强劲的点需求以及杠杆率上升，这表明比特币可能面临着增强的波动性，这使得长期投资者成为积极赌注的风险。

Another key factor to consider is the broader market sentiment. At present, market sentiment remains in the fear zone, and Bitcoin ETF accumulation is weak. This suggests that despite the surge in USDT inflows, the market is not experiencing the same level of optimism that often accompanies sustained bullish trends. If investors are not convinced about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, the recent surge in USDT could end up fueling short-term volatility rather than a lasting rally.

要考虑的另一个关键因素是更广泛的市场情绪。目前，市场情绪仍然存在于恐惧区域，比特币ETF的积累薄弱。这表明，尽管USDT流入激增，但市场并没有经常伴随持续的看涨趋势的乐观水平。如果投资者不相信比特币的长期前景，那么最近的USDT的激增最终可能会加剧短期波动，而不是持久的集会。

Moreover, if the current pattern of rising leverage continues without a substantial increase in spot buying, Bitcoin may find itself stuck in a liquidity trap. In this scenario, prices might temporarily rise, but without real support from spot demand, they could quickly reverse once the leveraged positions are unwound.

此外，如果目前的杠杆率上升的模式在现货购买方面却没有大幅度增加，则比特币可能会发现自己陷入了流动性陷阱。在这种情况下，价格可能会暂时上涨，但是如果没有现货需求的真正支持，一旦杠杆位置解开，它们就可以迅速扭转。

In conclusion, while the $450 million USDT inflow signals potential support for Bitcoin, the overall market dynamics point to caution. A surge in leverage, combined with weak spot demand and uncertain sentiment, increases the risk of Bitcoin’s price action becoming more fragile in the short term. Traders should monitor how this influx of USDT translates into actual demand for Bitcoin and whether the market’s focus shifts from leverage back to real spot buying interest. Until then, caution is advised as Bitcoin faces potential volatility and price corrections.

总而言之，尽管4.5亿美元的耗资流入信号对比特币的潜在支持，但总体市场动态谨慎。杠杆率激增，加上弱点的需求和不确定的情绪，增加了比特币价格行动在短期内变得更加脆弱的风险。交易者应监控这种USDT的涌入如何转化为对比特币的实际需求，以及市场的重点是否从杠杆率转变为真正的现货购买兴趣。在此之前，由于比特币面对潜在的波动性和价格更正，因此会谨慎行事。