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正如預期,中東地緣政治緊張局勢正在推動大宗商品價格大幅上漲
Rising tensions in the Middle East and global economic uncertainty are continuing to drive up the price of Bitcoin, gold, and oil.
中東緊張局勢加劇和全球經濟不確定性繼續推高比特幣、黃金和石油的價格。
According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, an increase in energy costs could further raise the value of Bitcoin in fiat terms.
加密貨幣交易所 BitMEX 聯合創始人 Arthur Hayes 表示,能源成本的增加可能會進一步提高比特幣的法定價值。
The escalation of geopolitical tensions pushes the price of Bitcoin and oil
地緣政治緊張局勢升級推高比特幣和石油價格
As anticipated, the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are fueling a significant growth in the price of commodities, including oil, gold, and even cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
正如預期的那樣,中東地緣政治緊張局勢正在推動大宗商品價格大幅上漲,包括石油、黃金,甚至比特幣等加密貨幣。
According to Hayes, the increase in oil and energy prices, caused by an escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, could have direct repercussions on the cryptocurrency market, leading consequently to a rise in the value of Bitcoin.
海耶斯表示,伊朗和以色列之間衝突升級導致石油和能源價格上漲,可能對加密貨幣市場產生直接影響,導致比特幣價值上漲。
Hayes published a post on his blog on Oct. 16 in which he outlined his predictions. According to him, if the main oil and natural gas fields in the Middle East were to come under attack, energy prices could increase drastically.
海耶斯於 10 月 16 日在他的部落格上發表了一篇文章,概述了他的預測。他表示,如果中東主要石油和天然氣田受到攻擊,能源價格可能會大幅上漲。
This scenario would affect not only the costs of oil, but also the price of Bitcoin, which could grow proportionally.
這種情況不僅會影響石油成本,還會影響比特幣的價格,比特幣的價格可能會成比例地成長。
“What happens to the fiat price of Bitcoin? Pump,” stated Hayes confidently.
「比特幣的法定價格會發生什麼變化?泵,」海耶斯自信地說。
Additionally emphasizing that the energy stored in digital form, like Bitcoin, will increase in value as the energy itself becomes more expensive.
另外也強調,隨著能源本身變得更加昂貴,以數位形式儲存的能源(例如比特幣)的價值將會增加。
The analysis by Hayes is based on a key concept: Bitcoin is stored energy in digital form. This means that if energy prices rise, the value of Bitcoin in terms of fiat currency grows proportionally.
海耶斯的分析基於一個關鍵概念:比特幣是以數位形式儲存的能量。這意味著,如果能源價格上漲,比特幣以法定貨幣計算的價值也會成比例增長。
This theory is based on the idea that Bitcoin mining, or the process of extracting the cryptocurrency, directly depends on energy consumption. Therefore, in a context where energy becomes more valuable, Bitcoin could also become more valuable.
該理論基於以下觀點:比特幣挖礦或提取加密貨幣的過程直接取決於能源消耗。因此,在能源變得更有價值的背景下,比特幣也可能變得更有價值。
In particular, Hayes highlighted that the profitability of Bitcoin mining tends to vary based on changes in the difficulty of the extraction process, which is influenced by the network’s hash rate.
海耶斯特別強調,比特幣挖礦的獲利能力往往會根據提取過程難度的變化而變化,而提取過程的難度又受到網路哈希率的影響。
If the cost of energy rises, some mining operators might be forced to shut down their machines, thus reducing the overall hash rate of the network.
如果能源成本上升,一些挖礦運營商可能會被迫關閉機器,從而降低網路的整體哈希率。
This, in turn, would lower the difficulty of mining. Thus making Bitcoin extraction easier and potentially profitable for other operators, despite the high energy costs.
這反過來又會降低採礦難度。因此,儘管能源成本很高,但比特幣的開採變得更容易,並且可能為其他業者帶來利潤。
A historical comparison: the oil crises of the ’70sTo support his analysis, Hayes drew a parallel with the significant gains in commodities that occurred between 1973 and 1982, during the oil crises caused by the Arab oil embargo and the Iranian revolution.
歷史比較:70 年代的石油危機 為了支持他的分析,海耶斯將 1973 年至 1982 年阿拉伯石油禁運和伊朗革命造成的石油危機期間大宗商品大幅上漲進行了比較。
During that period, oil prices increased by 412%, while gold grew by 380%. This clearly reflects a correlation between commodities and periods of geopolitical instability.
在此期間,石油價格上漲了 412%,而黃金價格上漲了 380%。這清楚地反映了大宗商品與地緣政治不穩定時期之間的相關性。
Although Bitcoin was not present during the oil crises of the 1970s, Hayes highlighted that the cryptocurrency has already shown some correlation with commodities during inflationary periods.
儘管比特幣在 1970 年代的石油危機期間並未出現,但 Hayes 強調,加密貨幣在通膨時期已經顯示出與大宗商品的某種相關性。
In these contexts, investors tend to seek safe-haven assets to protect their capital from the erosion of the purchasing power of fiat currencies.
在這種情況下,投資者傾向於尋求避險資產,以保護其資本免受法定貨幣購買力的侵蝕。
The conflict in the Middle East is not only a matter of regional security, but it also has significant implications on global energy markets.
中東衝突不僅事關區域安全,也對全球能源市場產生重大影響。
If oil from the Middle East were to be removed from the market, Hayes predicts that the Bitcoin blockchain will continue to operate without interruption.
海耶斯預測,如果來自中東的石油從市場撤出,比特幣區塊鏈將繼續不間斷地運作。
Specifically, maintaining at least its value relative to energy and probably increasing in value in terms of fiat currency.
具體來說,至少保持其相對於能源的價值,並且可能以法定貨幣計算的價值增加。
This ability of Bitcoin to operate independently from geopolitical and energy factors is one of the reasons why it is often considered a sort of digital safe haven.
比特幣的這種獨立於地緣政治和能源因素運作的能力是它通常被認為是數位避風港的原因之一。
In times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, many investors turn to Bitcoin as an alternative to traditional currencies, whose economies can be more easily influenced by global events.
在經濟和地緣政治不確定的時期,許多投資者轉向比特幣作為傳統貨幣的替代品,因為傳統貨幣的經濟更容易受到全球事件的影響。
Evolution of the price of Bitcoin and commoditiesThe recent developments in the energy and financial markets seem to confirm part of Hayes’s predictions.
比特幣和大宗商品價格的演變能源和金融市場的最新發展似乎證實了海耶斯的部分預測。
The oil prices fell this week, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) recording a drop of 3.7%, bringing the price to 71.09 dollars per barrel on Oct. 17, according to Oilprice.com.
根據 Oilprice.com 的數據,本週油價下跌,西德州中質油 (WTI) 下跌 3.7%,至 10 月 17 日價格至每桶 71.09 美元。
However, Bitcoin has gained over 8% in the same period, surpassing $68,000 in early trading on Oct. 18, marking a significant bull compared to the previous weeks.
然而,比特幣同期漲幅超過 8%,在 10 月 18 日早盤交易中突破 68,000 美元,與前幾週相比出現顯著多頭。
The gold market also experienced a similar trend. Gold reached a new all-time high, hitting $2,711 per ounce on Oct. 17.
黃金市場也經歷了類似的趨勢。 10 月 17 日,金價創下歷史新高,達到每盎司 2,711 美元。
All this because driven by the growing demand for safe-haven assets by investors concerned about the uncertainty over the upcoming elections in the United States and the rising tensions in the Middle East.
這一切都是因為投資人擔心美國即將舉行的選舉的不確定性以及中東緊張局勢的加劇,對避險資產的需求不斷增長。
As stated by Nitesh Shah, commodity strategist at WisdomTree,
正如 WisdomTree 商品策略師 Nitesh Shah 所說,
“Gold is often the place to go in times of uncertainty”
“在不確定時期,黃金往往是投資的選擇”
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