我們傾向於認為當我們輸掉時硬幣翻轉是不公平的

儘管幾乎是“隨機”的標誌性示例 - 好吧，那是骰子和骰子 - 我們忍不住覺得涉及一些技能。特別是當我們輸掉時。

As it turns out, we tend towards the same cognitive errors with coin flips. Despite being pretty much the iconic example of “random” – well, that and dice rolls – we can’t help but feel like there’s some element of skill involved. Especially when we lose.

事實證明，我們傾向於用硬幣翻轉遇到相同的認知錯誤。儘管幾乎是“隨機”的標誌性示例 - 好吧，那是骰子和骰子 - 我們忍不住覺得涉及一些技能。特別是當我們輸掉時。

“In 11 studies, participants competed against another participant for a positive or negative outcome, determined by a physical or virtual coin flip,” explain Rémy Furrer and Daniel Gilbert, both psychologists at Harvard University, and Timothy Wilson, from the University of Virginia, in the introduction to a new paper this month. “The independent variable was who called heads or tails and flipped the coin: the participant or their opponent.”

“在11項研究中，參與者與另一個參與者競爭，取得了積極或負面的結果，這是由身體或虛擬硬幣翻轉決定的。”在本月新論文的簡介中，哈佛大學的心理學家RémyFurrer和Daniel Gilbert都解釋說。 “自變量是誰打電話給頭或尾巴，然後翻轉硬幣：參與者或他們的對手。”

“When participants lost the flip, we found an illusion of unfairness: They reported that the process was less fair, were less pleased with their outcome, and found the other person less likable when their opponent flipped the coin.”

“當參與者失去翻轉時，我們發現了不公平的幻想：他們報告說，這一過程不公平，對他們的結果不滿意，並且發現當對手翻轉硬幣時，另一個人不那麼討人喜歡。”

Now, evidently this is nonsense – okay, coin flips aren’t technically 50/50, but they’re near as damn it, and certainly not so predictable that the nearly 6,000 study participants involved in the 11 studies would be able to influence their outcomes at any scale. But it’s a hard notion to shake: “the illusion of unfairness appears to be a quick, intuitive process that is not easily corrected,” the trio point out.

現在，顯然這是胡說八道 - 好的，硬幣翻轉從技術上講不是50/50，但是它們接近它，當然不是那麼可預測，以至於參與11項研究的近6,000名研究參與者將能夠在任何規模上影響其結果。但這很難動搖：“不公平的幻覺似乎是一個不容易糾正的快速，直觀的過程，”三人組指出。

And here’s the thing: rather than being just a fun little quirk of the human brain, this misconception may have some pretty important real-world impacts. See, we create this illusion of unfairness because we wish the world were sensible – that we have control over our lives, and that ultimately, justice will prevail. It isn’t comfortable for us to accept that a lot of things are, basically, pretty random – so we pretend it isn’t, and just get mad when things go wrong.

這就是事實：這種誤解不僅僅是人類大腦的一個有趣的小怪癖，還可能產生一些非常重要的現實影響。瞧，我們創造了這種不公平的幻想，因為我們希望世界明智 - 我們可以控制自己的生活，最終，正義將佔上風。我們接受很多事情是基本上是隨機的，因此我們不舒服 - 我們假裝不是，而當事情出錯時就會生氣。

“Our results […] speak to the philosophical literature on ‘moral luck,’ which refers to the case in which people are held morally accountable for acts that are not entirely under their control,” the authors explain in the supplemental materials to their paper. “An example is the case of two drunk drivers, one of whom strikes a pedestrian (who ran into the middle of the road) while the other makes it home without incident. Most people would judge the first driver more harshly, even though the presence or absence of pedestrians was not controllable by either driver.”

作者在補充材料中解釋說：“我們的結果[…]談到了關於'道德運氣'的哲學文獻，這是指人們在道德上對不完全控制的行為負責的情況。” “一個例子就是兩個醉酒的司機，其中一名襲擊了行人（跑到路中間），而另一名駕駛員則無事發生。

“In our studies, participants exhibited a strong version of lay moral luck. They believed that the person who flipped the coin was more responsible for a negative outcome, even though the outcome was random and uncontrollable.”

“在我們的研究中，參與者表現出強烈的道德運氣。他們認為，將硬幣翻轉的人對結果負有負面影響，即使結果是隨機的且無法控制的。”