蘇納克的選舉賭注：盧安達航班增加，工黨的威脅

隨著選舉的臨近，總理里希·蘇納克的目標是將“我們將停止船隻，工黨將停止航班”作為他的競選口號。在唐寧街新聞發布會上，蘇納克宣布擴大盧安達計劃，目標是在秋季選舉前每月進行多次航班。這項雄心勃勃的舉措表明蘇納克相信大規模實施該政策將阻止海峽穿越。然而，盧安達計畫的有效性仍不確定，保守黨叛軍對其威懾能力表示懷疑，而內政部也缺乏其成功的明確時間表。

Rishi Sunak's Election Strategy: Deterrent Flights to Rwanda and Impending Labor Threat

里希·蘇納克的選舉策略：阻止飛往盧安達的航班和迫在眉睫的勞工威脅

In a resolute declaration at a Downing Street press conference on Monday, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak unveiled his electoral slogan: "We'll stop the boats, Labour will stop the flights." This unambiguous statement signals a significant shift in Sunak's approach to tackling the controversial Rwanda asylum seeker policy.

週一，英國首相里希·蘇納克在唐寧街新聞發布會上發表了堅決的聲明，公佈了他的選舉口號：“我們將停止船隻，工黨將停止航班。”這項明確的聲明標誌著蘇納克處理有爭議的盧安達尋求庇護者政策的方法發生了重大轉變。

Previously criticized as a mere "proof of concept" with a single token flight, Sunak has now vowed to scale up operations significantly, with multiple flights per month, prior to the anticipated autumn election. This bold move suggests that Sunak acknowledges public skepticism surrounding the policy's efficacy and the need to demonstrate tangible deterrence in order to sway voters.

蘇納克此前曾被批評為象徵性飛行的“概念驗證”，但現在他發誓要在預期的秋季選舉之前大幅擴大運營規模，每月進行多次飛行。這一大膽舉措表明，蘇納克承認公眾對該政策有效性的懷疑，以及需要展示實際的威懾力以影響選民。

Sunak's gamble is not without its risks. Conservative Party rebels remain unconvinced by the Safety of Rwanda Bill, arguing that it lacks the vigor to achieve its intended deterrence. They have set Sunak a challenging target: to deport 2,000 individuals to Rwanda within six months, or at least be on track to meet this goal, for the policy to be deemed effective.

蘇納克的賭博並非沒有風險。保守黨叛亂分子仍然不相信《盧安達安全法案》，認為該法案缺乏實現其預期威懾作用的活力。他們為蘇納克設定了一個具有挑戰性的目標：在六個月內將 2,000 人驅逐到盧安達，或至少有望實現這一目標，以使該政策被視為有效。

While immigration enforcement experts believe this target is achievable with weekly flights operating at maximum capacity, it remains a significant undertaking. Moreover, the precise juncture at which the policy will actually serve as a deterrent is unknown, even to the Home Office. However, given that approximately 30,000 individuals crossed the Channel in small boats last year, a figure of 2,000 deportations to Rwanda over six months might have the desired impact.

儘管移民執法專家認為，透過每週航班最大運力運營，這一目標是可以實現的，但這仍然是一項艱鉅的任務。此外，即使是內政部，也不清楚該政策何時真正發揮威懾作用。然而，考慮到去年約有 3 萬人乘小船穿越英吉利海峽，六個月內將 2,000 人驅逐到盧安達的數字可能會產生預期的影響。

Should Sunak succeed in demonstrating a deterrent effect, it would pose a considerable obstacle for the Labour Party, which has pledged to abolish the Rwanda scheme if it ascends to power. However, the success or failure of this electoral strategy hinges on a substantial "if."

如果蘇納克成功地展現出威懾作用，這將對工黨構成相當大的障礙，該黨已承諾如果上台執政，將廢除盧安達計畫。然而，這項選舉策略的成敗取決於一個實質的「如果」。