苏纳克的选举赌注：卢旺达航班增加，工党的威胁

随着选举的临近，总理里希·苏纳克的目标是将“我们将停止船只，工党将停止航班”作为他的竞选口号。在唐宁街新闻发布会上，苏纳克宣布扩大卢旺达计划，目标是在秋季选举前每月进行多次航班。这一雄心勃勃的举措表明苏纳克相信大规模实施该政策将阻止海峡穿越。然而，卢旺达计划的有效性仍不确定，保守党叛军对其威慑能力表示怀疑，而内政部也缺乏其成功的明确时间表。

Rishi Sunak's Election Strategy: Deterrent Flights to Rwanda and Impending Labor Threat

里希·苏纳克的选举策略：阻止飞往卢旺达的航班和迫在眉睫的劳工威胁

In a resolute declaration at a Downing Street press conference on Monday, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak unveiled his electoral slogan: "We'll stop the boats, Labour will stop the flights." This unambiguous statement signals a significant shift in Sunak's approach to tackling the controversial Rwanda asylum seeker policy.

周一，英国首相里希·苏纳克在唐宁街新闻发布会上发表了坚决的声明，公布了他的选举口号：“我们将停止船只，工党将停止航班。”这一明确的声明标志着苏纳克处理有争议的卢旺达寻求庇护者政策的方法发生了重大转变。

Previously criticized as a mere "proof of concept" with a single token flight, Sunak has now vowed to scale up operations significantly, with multiple flights per month, prior to the anticipated autumn election. This bold move suggests that Sunak acknowledges public skepticism surrounding the policy's efficacy and the need to demonstrate tangible deterrence in order to sway voters.

苏纳克此前曾被批评为一次象征性飞行的“概念验证”，但现在他发誓要在预期的秋季选举之前大幅扩大运营规模，每月进行多次飞行。这一大胆举措表明，苏纳克承认公众对该政策有效性的怀疑，以及需要展示切实的威慑力以影响选民。

Sunak's gamble is not without its risks. Conservative Party rebels remain unconvinced by the Safety of Rwanda Bill, arguing that it lacks the vigor to achieve its intended deterrence. They have set Sunak a challenging target: to deport 2,000 individuals to Rwanda within six months, or at least be on track to meet this goal, for the policy to be deemed effective.

苏纳克的赌博并非没有风险。保守党叛乱分子仍然不相信《卢旺达安全法案》，认为该法案缺乏实现其预期威慑作用的活力。他们为苏纳克设定了一个具有挑战性的目标：在六个月内将 2,000 人驱逐到卢旺达，或者至少有望实现这一目标，以使该政策被视为有效。

While immigration enforcement experts believe this target is achievable with weekly flights operating at maximum capacity, it remains a significant undertaking. Moreover, the precise juncture at which the policy will actually serve as a deterrent is unknown, even to the Home Office. However, given that approximately 30,000 individuals crossed the Channel in small boats last year, a figure of 2,000 deportations to Rwanda over six months might have the desired impact.

尽管移民执法专家认为，通过每周航班最大运力运营，这一目标是可以实现的，但这仍然是一项艰巨的任务。此外，即使是内政部，也不清楚该政策何时真正发挥威慑作用。然而，考虑到去年约有 30,000 人乘小船穿越英吉利海峡，六个月内将 2,000 人驱逐到卢旺达的数字可能会产生预期的影响。

Should Sunak succeed in demonstrating a deterrent effect, it would pose a considerable obstacle for the Labour Party, which has pledged to abolish the Rwanda scheme if it ascends to power. However, the success or failure of this electoral strategy hinges on a substantial "if."

如果苏纳克成功地展现出威慑作用，这将对工党构成相当大的障碍，该党已承诺如果上台执政，将废除卢旺达计划。然而，这一选举策略的成败取决于一个实质性的“如果”。