Solana（Sol）價格預測：Q2 2024 Outlook隨著市值蒸發，引起了未來的關注

本文深入研究了導致Solana衰退，分析技術和鍊鍊指標的因素，並探討了資產未來的潛在情況。

Solana (SOL) has experienced a particularly steep decline in the first quarter of 2025, becoming a major talking point within the cryptocurrency community.

Solana（Sol）在2025年第一季度經歷了特別急劇下降，成為加密貨幣社區中的主要話題。

The asset has lost 34% of its value, wiping out gains fueled by pre-election hype and decreasing the network's market capitalization by $100 billion.

該資產損失了其價值的34％，消除了選舉前炒作所推動的收益，並使網絡的市值減少了1000億美元。

This downturn has seen SOL return to September 2024 lows, raising the question of whether Q2 will offer some respite or see the specter of high-stakes sell-offs continue to haunt the network.

這種低迷的索爾（Sol）恢復了2024年9月的低點，提出了第2季度是否會提供一些喘息的問題或看到高風險拋售的幽靈繼續困擾著該網絡。

Devastating Q1 Performance: A Confluence of Factors

毀滅性的Q1表現：因素匯合

Solana's Q1 performance stands out as especially severe, even in the context of the broader market downturn. While macroeconomic headwinds and microeconomic pressures have impacted the entire cryptocurrency sector, Solana's decline has been notably pronounced.

索拉納（Solana）的第一季度表現也特別嚴重，即使在更廣泛的市場衰退的背景下也是如此。儘管宏觀經濟的逆風和微觀經濟壓力影響了整個加密貨幣部門，但Solana的下降顯著。

Technical Analysis: Lack Of Clear Support Levels Increases Risk Of Further Declines

技術分析：缺乏明確的支持水平會增加進一步下降的風險

From a technical standpoint, Solana's 1D price chart reveals a concerning lack of robust support levels. This absence of strong bullish demand at key price points increases the risk of further declines, especially if HODLing sentiment weakens.

從技術角度來看，索拉納（Solana）的一維價格圖表明缺乏強大的支持水平。在關鍵價位上沒有強烈的看漲需求增加了進一步下降的風險，尤其是在霍德情緒減弱的情況下。

The asset's vulnerability is evident in the SOL/BTC pair's sharp weekly decline, which has wiped out the gains achieved in mid-March, signaling a weakening relative performance against Bitcoin and contributing to the bearish outlook.

在SOL/BTC對的每週急劇下降中，資產的脆弱性很明顯，這已經消除了3月中旬取得的收益，這表明對比特幣的相對錶現較弱，並促進了看跌的前景。

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is also on the verge of flipping bearish, signaling the potential for SOL to test its $115 support level. A breach of this support could trigger a cascade of sell-offs, further exacerbating the asset's decline.

移動平均收斂差異（MACD）指標也處於翻轉看跌的邊緣，這表明SOL測試其115美元的支撐級別的潛力。違反這種支持可能會引發一系列拋售，從而進一步加劇了資產的下降。

On-Chain Metrics: Capitulation Fears And Liquidity Outflows

鏈上指標：投降恐懼和流動性流出

On-chain metrics paint a grim picture of Solana's current state. The percentage of SOL supply in loss has reached a two-year high, with only 32% of the supply remaining in profit. This imbalance increases the likelihood of a sell-off, as underwater holders may be more inclined to capitulate.

鏈上指標描繪了Solana當前狀態的嚴峻圖片。 SOL損失供應的百分比已達到兩年，只有32％的利潤供應。這種不平衡增加了拋售的可能性，因為水下持有人可能更傾向於投降。

The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) metric indicates that Short-Term Holders (STH) have entered a capitulation phase, signaling a potential wave of sell-offs. This capitulation, coupled with the lack of spot accumulation, could lead to significant liquidity outflows from the Solana network.

淨未實現的盈利和損失（NUPL）指標表明，短期持有人（STH）進入了投降階段，這表明了潛在的拋售浪潮。這種投降，再加上缺乏斑點積累，可能會導致Solana網絡的大量流動性流出。

Historically, Solana has only found a local bottom when it enters the hope/fear phase, characterized by a resurgence of FOMO and market confidence. Without this shift in sentiment, sell-side pressure is likely to persist, increasing the risk of further declines.

從歷史上看，索拉納（Solana）進入希望/恐懼階段時才發現了當地的底層，其特徵是FOMO和市場信心的複興。如果沒有這種情緒轉變，賣方壓力可能會持續存在，從而增加了進一步下降的風險。

Network Activity: Sharp Decline In New Addresses And Network Usage

網絡活動：新地址和網絡使用率急劇下降

Solana's network activity, as measured by the number of new addresses, has also experienced a sharp decline. After surging to 8 million new addresses by mid-January, the count has plummeted to a six-month low of just 312,000.

按照新地址的數量衡量，Solana的網絡活動也急劇下降。在1月中旬到達800萬個新地址之後，該計數跌至僅312,000的六個月低點。

This decline in network activity reflects a waning interest in the Solana ecosystem, which could further contribute to the asset's downward momentum.

網絡活動的這種下降反映了對Solana生態系統的興趣，這可能進一步有助於資產的下降勢頭。

Furthermore, the initial spikes in staking and decentralized exchange (DEX) volume, which signaled healthy investor engagement, have since receded, falling well below their pre-election highs.

此外，自那以後，標誌著健康投資者參與的標誌性交易和分散交換（DEX）的最初峰值已退出，遠低於其大選前高點。

This decline in key network metrics underscores the weakening fundamentals of the Solana ecosystem.

關鍵網絡指標的這種下降強調了SOLANA生態系統的基本原理削弱。

Q2 Outlook: Lack Of Catalysts For A Bullish Reversal

Q2 Outlook：缺乏看漲逆轉的催化劑

The question now is whether Solana can reverse its fortunes in Q2. However, the current outlook appears bleak, with a lack of clear catalysts to spark demand and reverse the prevailing bearish sentiment.

現在的問題是Solana是否可以在第二季度扭轉其命運。但是，目前的前景顯得黯淡，缺乏明確的催化劑來激發需求並扭轉了普遍的看跌感情。

Unless there is a significant shift in market sentiment or a positive development that revitalizes the Solana ecosystem, expecting a bullish Q2 seems increasingly far-fetched.

除非市場情緒發生重大變化或積極的發展，從而振興了Solana生態系統，否則希望看漲的Q2似乎越來越牽強。

The risk of losing the $115 support level remains substantial, and a breach of this level could trigger a further decline in SOL's price.

失去115美元的支持水平的風險仍然很大，違反此水平可能會導致SOL價格進一步下降。

Several potential scenarios could unfold in Q2, given the current market conditions:

鑑於當前的市場條件，在第二季度可能會發生幾種潛在方案：

* A technical rebound from the $115 support level could occur, especially if Bitcoin shows signs of a recovery.

*可能會發生從$ 115的支持水平進行技術反彈，特別是如果比特幣顯示恢復的跡象。

* If selling pressure intensifies, leading to a breach of the $115 support, traders could set their sights on the next support level at $90.

*如果銷售壓力加劇，導致違反了115美元的支持，交易者可以將目光投向下一個支持水平，為90美元。

* A return to the hope/fear phase, which typically marks a local bottom for Solana, would be a pivotal development to watch out for.

*回到希望/恐懼階段，通常標誌著Solana的本地底部，將是一個關注的發展。

* The MACD indicator flipping bearish could also put additional downward pressure on the asset.

* MACD指示器翻轉看跌也可能對資產施加額外的下降壓力。

Traders and investors should adopt a cautious approach, employing robust risk management strategies and conducting thorough due diligence.

貿易商和投資者應採用謹慎的方法，採用強大的風險管理策略並進行全面的盡職調查。