Solana（Sol）价格预测：Q2 2024 Outlook随着市值蒸发，引起了未来的关注

本文深入研究了导致Solana衰退，分析技术和链链指标的因素，并探讨了资产未来的潜在情况。

Solana (SOL) has experienced a particularly steep decline in the first quarter of 2025, becoming a major talking point within the cryptocurrency community.

Solana（Sol）在2025年第一季度经历了特别急剧下降，成为加密货币社区中的主要话题。

The asset has lost 34% of its value, wiping out gains fueled by pre-election hype and decreasing the network's market capitalization by $100 billion.

该资产损失了其价值的34％，消除了选举前炒作所推动的收益，并使网络的市值减少了1000亿美元。

This downturn has seen SOL return to September 2024 lows, raising the question of whether Q2 will offer some respite or see the specter of high-stakes sell-offs continue to haunt the network.

这种低迷的索尔（Sol）恢复了2024年9月的低点，提出了第2季度是否会提供一些喘息的问题或看到高风险抛售的幽灵继续困扰着该网络。

Devastating Q1 Performance: A Confluence of Factors

毁灭性的Q1表现：因素汇合

Solana's Q1 performance stands out as especially severe, even in the context of the broader market downturn. While macroeconomic headwinds and microeconomic pressures have impacted the entire cryptocurrency sector, Solana's decline has been notably pronounced.

索拉纳（Solana）的第一季度表现也特别严重，即使在更广泛的市场衰退的背景下也是如此。尽管宏观经济的逆风和微观经济压力影响了整个加密货币部门，但Solana的下降显着。

Technical Analysis: Lack Of Clear Support Levels Increases Risk Of Further Declines

技术分析：缺乏明确的支持水平会增加进一步下降的风险

From a technical standpoint, Solana's 1D price chart reveals a concerning lack of robust support levels. This absence of strong bullish demand at key price points increases the risk of further declines, especially if HODLing sentiment weakens.

从技术角度来看，索拉纳（Solana）的一维价格图表明缺乏强大的支持水平。在关键价位上没有强烈的看涨需求增加了进一步下降的风险，尤其是在霍德情绪减弱的情况下。

The asset's vulnerability is evident in the SOL/BTC pair's sharp weekly decline, which has wiped out the gains achieved in mid-March, signaling a weakening relative performance against Bitcoin and contributing to the bearish outlook.

在SOL/BTC对的每周急剧下降中，资产的脆弱性很明显，这已经消除了3月中旬取得的收益，这表明对比特币的相对表现较弱，并促进了看跌的前景。

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is also on the verge of flipping bearish, signaling the potential for SOL to test its $115 support level. A breach of this support could trigger a cascade of sell-offs, further exacerbating the asset's decline.

移动平均收敛差异（MACD）指标也处于翻转看跌的边缘，这表明SOL测试其115美元的支撑级别的潜力。违反这种支持可能会引发一系列抛售，从而进一步加剧了资产的下降。

On-Chain Metrics: Capitulation Fears And Liquidity Outflows

链上指标：投降恐惧和流动性流出

On-chain metrics paint a grim picture of Solana's current state. The percentage of SOL supply in loss has reached a two-year high, with only 32% of the supply remaining in profit. This imbalance increases the likelihood of a sell-off, as underwater holders may be more inclined to capitulate.

链上指标描绘了Solana当前状态的严峻图片。 SOL损失供应的百分比已达到两年，只有32％的利润供应。这种不平衡增加了抛售的可能性，因为水下持有人可能更倾向于投降。

The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) metric indicates that Short-Term Holders (STH) have entered a capitulation phase, signaling a potential wave of sell-offs. This capitulation, coupled with the lack of spot accumulation, could lead to significant liquidity outflows from the Solana network.

净未实现的盈利和损失（NUPL）指标表明，短期持有人（STH）进入了投降阶段，这表明了潜在的抛售浪潮。这种投降，再加上缺乏斑点积累，可能会导致Solana网络的大量流动性流出。

Historically, Solana has only found a local bottom when it enters the hope/fear phase, characterized by a resurgence of FOMO and market confidence. Without this shift in sentiment, sell-side pressure is likely to persist, increasing the risk of further declines.

从历史上看，索拉纳（Solana）进入希望/恐惧阶段时才发现了当地的底层，其特征是FOMO和市场信心的复兴。如果没有这种情绪转变，卖方压力可能会持续存在，从而增加了进一步下降的风险。

Network Activity: Sharp Decline In New Addresses And Network Usage

网络活动：新地址和网络使用率急剧下降

Solana's network activity, as measured by the number of new addresses, has also experienced a sharp decline. After surging to 8 million new addresses by mid-January, the count has plummeted to a six-month low of just 312,000.

按照新地址的数量衡量，Solana的网络活动也急剧下降。在1月中旬到达800万个新地址之后，该计数跌至仅312,000的六个月低点。

This decline in network activity reflects a waning interest in the Solana ecosystem, which could further contribute to the asset's downward momentum.

网络活动的这种下降反映了对Solana生态系统的兴趣，这可能进一步有助于资产的下降势头。

Furthermore, the initial spikes in staking and decentralized exchange (DEX) volume, which signaled healthy investor engagement, have since receded, falling well below their pre-election highs.

此外，自那以后，标志着健康投资者参与的标志性交易和分散交换（DEX）的最初峰值已退出，远低于其大选前高点。

This decline in key network metrics underscores the weakening fundamentals of the Solana ecosystem.

关键网络指标的这种下降强调了SOLANA生态系统的基本原理削弱。

Q2 Outlook: Lack Of Catalysts For A Bullish Reversal

Q2 Outlook：缺乏看涨逆转的催化剂

The question now is whether Solana can reverse its fortunes in Q2. However, the current outlook appears bleak, with a lack of clear catalysts to spark demand and reverse the prevailing bearish sentiment.

现在的问题是Solana是否可以在第二季度扭转其命运。但是，目前的前景显得黯淡，缺乏明确的催化剂来激发需求并扭转了普遍的看跌感情。

Unless there is a significant shift in market sentiment or a positive development that revitalizes the Solana ecosystem, expecting a bullish Q2 seems increasingly far-fetched.

除非市场情绪发生重大变化或积极的发展，从而振兴了Solana生态系统，否则希望看涨的Q2似乎越来越牵强。

The risk of losing the $115 support level remains substantial, and a breach of this level could trigger a further decline in SOL's price.

失去115美元的支持水平的风险仍然很大，违反此水平可能会导致SOL价格进一步下降。

Several potential scenarios could unfold in Q2, given the current market conditions:

鉴于当前的市场条件，在第二季度可能会发生几种潜在方案：

* A technical rebound from the $115 support level could occur, especially if Bitcoin shows signs of a recovery.

*可能会发生从$ 115的支持水平进行技术反弹，特别是如果比特币显示恢复的迹象。

* If selling pressure intensifies, leading to a breach of the $115 support, traders could set their sights on the next support level at $90.

*如果销售压力加剧，导致违反了115美元的支持，交易者可以将目光投向下一个支持水平，为90美元。

* A return to the hope/fear phase, which typically marks a local bottom for Solana, would be a pivotal development to watch out for.

*回到希望/恐惧阶段，通常标志着Solana的本地底部，将是一个关注的发展。

* The MACD indicator flipping bearish could also put additional downward pressure on the asset.

* MACD指示器翻转看跌也可能对资产施加额外的下降压力。

Traders and investors should adopt a cautious approach, employing robust risk management strategies and conducting thorough due diligence.

贸易商和投资者应采用谨慎的方法，采用强大的风险管理策略并进行全面的尽职调查。