Solana（Sol）價格分析：持續下降趨勢強調3月1日解鎖問題

在今天分享的技術圖表中，加密分析師Korfh Khaneghah是零複雜性交易的創始人，強調了Solana的持續下降趨勢

A technical analysis shared today by crypto analyst Koroush Khaneghah, Founder of Zero Complexity Trading, highlights Solana’s ongoing downtrend and identifies key support and resistance levels on the SOL/USDT Perpetual (Binance) daily timeframe. According to the analysis, Solana has lost several key zones and is currently hovering near the $157 area, which Khaneghah labels as the “last major support level.”

零複雜性交易的創始人Khaneghah今天分享了一項技術分析，重點介紹了Solana的持續下降趨勢，並確定了SOL/USDT永久（Binance）每日時間範圍的關鍵支持和阻力水平。根據分析，索拉納（Solana）失去了幾個關鍵區域，目前正徘徊在157美元的地區，Khaneghah將其標記為“最後的主要支持水平”。

The Bearish Case For Solana

索拉納的看跌案

“The downtrend continues as SOL gets rejected by another S/R flip and crashes down to the $150 level. Sentiment at an all-time low. Assume continuation until proven otherwise,” Khaneghah writes via X.

“由於SOL被另一個S/R翻轉拒絕，並跌至150美元的水平，因此下降趨勢繼續進行。情感以歷史最低點。假設繼續進行，直到另有證明為止。” Khaneghah通過X寫道。

A prominent feature of the analysis is a support/resistance (S/R) flip around $180.58. Earlier in February, Solana attempted to reclaim this level but was met with strong selling pressure. The failure to secure a daily close above $180.58—now acting as resistance—signaled renewed downside momentum.

該分析的一個突出特徵是支撐/阻力（S/R）翻轉約180.58美元。 2月初，索拉納（Solana）試圖收回這一水平，但遭受了巨大的銷售壓力。未能確保每天關閉$ 180.58的收盤價（現在是電阻）的徵兆，更新了下行勢頭。

Following the drop, Solana has settled just above $157, marked on the chart as the “Last major support level.” Prices have briefly dipped below this zone, suggesting fragility in the market’s current stance. A failure to hold $157 on daily closes increases the possibility of further decline toward the next significant horizontal line around $127.05—visible at the lower end of the chart.

下降後，索拉納（Solana）在$ 157的價格下方定居，在圖表上標記為“最後的主要支持水平”。價格短暫下降到該區域以下，這表明市場目前的立場脆弱。每日關閉時未能持有157美元，這會增加向下一個重要水平線進一步下降的可能性，降至127.05美元，在圖表的下端可見。

Koroush’s annotations also indicate that crossing back above $180.58 would shift the market bias from bearish to “neutral.” Until that happens, the analyst cautions that sellers appear to be in control, with negative sentiment around meme coins reinforcing the ongoing downtrend.

KOUFH的註釋還表明，返回到180.58美元以上的人會將市場偏見從看跌轉移到“中性”。在發生這種情況之前，分析師警告說，賣方似乎處於控制之中，對模因硬幣的負面情緒加劇了正在進行的下降趨勢。

The Bullish Case For SOL

索爾的看漲案件

Meanwhile, another technical analysis by crypto analyst RunnerXBT (@RunnerXBT) focuses on the Solana (SOL) futures chart (2-hour timeframe on Binance) today, sharing a orderflow analysis of the price action ahead of the upcoming March 1 unlock.

同時，Crypto Analyst RunnerXBT（@runnerxbt）的另一項技術分析重點介紹了Solana（Sol）期貨圖表（今天的2小時時間範圍），在即將到來的3月1日起解鎖之前，分享了對價格行動的訂單流量分析。

In the annotated chart, the price peaked in mid-January, reaching $295, before beginning a steady descent that has most recently seen SOL hovering in the mid-$150 range. The chart shows that from early to late January, there was a significant drop in open interest (OI) alongside a slide in the price, with Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) suggesting it was driven primarily by long positions closing. RunnerXBT’s notes attribute this to SOL weakness moving largely in tandem (1:1) with Bitcoin.

在帶註釋的圖表中，價格在1月中旬達到頂峰，達到295美元，然後開始了一個穩定的下降，最近看到Sol在150美元的中期徘徊。該圖表顯示，從1月初到下旬，價格下降的價格大幅下降，價格下降了，累計數量達美（CVD）表明，這主要是由長位置結束的。 RunnerXBT的註釋將其歸因於Sol Bealness在很大程度上與比特幣一起在串聯（1：1）中移動。

By late January, after a more pronounced downward move, the price and OI both settled at lower levels. OI briefly rebounded in early February, though the chart indicates that initial long positioning was soon followed by short covering as traders pivoted to profit-taking or closed losing short positions. Despite this activity, SOL’s price was unable to mount a sustained uptrend, reinforcing a broader sense of hesitancy among traders.

到1月下旬，經過更加明顯的下降行動，價格和OI都達到了較低的水平。 OI在2月初短暫反彈，儘管該圖表表明最初的長位置很快被短暫覆蓋，因為交易者樞紐可謀取利潤或封閉的丟失職位。儘管進行了此類活動，但Sol的價格仍無法實現持續的上升趨勢，從而增強了交易者之間更廣泛的猶豫感。

Around mid-February (February 16–18) and again on February 24, the chart highlights phases of “aggressive shorting and spot selling,” which contributed to persistent downward pressure on the price. Though there were instances of short covering (notably around February 21, where CVD ticked up slightly), the overall momentum has remained subdued, with few signs of new long accumulation.

2月中旬（2月16日至18日）左右，在2月24日，該圖表突出了“積極的短路和現場銷售”的階段，這導致價格持續下降壓力。儘管有一些覆蓋範圍短的情況（尤其是在2月21日左右，CVD略有滴答作用），但總體勢頭仍然柔和，幾乎沒有新的長期積累跡象。

On the right side of the chart, RunnerXBT has placed a vertical red line marking March 1 as the date of what he calls the “biggest SOL unlock known to mankind.” Many market participants appear to be “front-running” the event by selling in anticipation of a flood of new tokens hitting the market, which could drive heightened volatility.

在圖表的右側，RunnerXBT在3月1日標記了一條垂直的紅線，作為他所謂的“人類已知的最大索爾解鎖”的日期。許多市場參與者似乎是通過銷售新的代幣湧入市場的銷售而成為活動的“最佳播放”，這可能會增加波動性的提高。

Yet, in his post, RunnerXBT warns against shorting SOL at current levels, explaining that he initially started monitoring this situation when the token traded just under $200 and is now seeking a scalp long after the unlock has happened. He points out that attempts to catch every 5–10% daily drop are dangerous and that traders who do so risk frequent stop-outs or liquidations.

然而，在他的帖子中，RunnerXBT警告說，當時代幣交易不到200美元時，他最初開始監視這種情況，並在解鎖發生後很長一段時間都在尋求頭皮。他指出，嘗試每天5-10％下降的嘗試是危險的，而這樣做的交易者卻經常停止或清算。

“I dont think its a wise “new” short here of SOL. I started posting about the situation at jus under $200 per SOL. I am looking for a scalp long AFTER the unlock, people “frontrunning” it are getting stopped out or liquidated. You aren’t a hero catching -5% to -10% daily falling knives. […] TLDR: Looking for longs (not 5 days before unlock). NOT shorts. if people can’t read, i can’t help you,” he writes via X.

“我不認為這是Sol的明智的“新”。我開始發布有關JUS的情況低於200美元的情況。我正在尋找一隻頭皮，在解鎖後很長時間，人們“ frontrund”它被停止或清算。您不是每天跌落刀的英雄-5％至-10％。 […] TLDR：尋找渴望（不鎖定前5天）。不是短褲。如果人們看不懂，我將無法幫助您，”他通過X寫道。

At press time, SOL trades at $158.

發稿時，SOL的交易價格為158美元。