Solana（Sol）价格分析：持续下降趋势强调3月1日解锁问题

在今天分享的技术图表中，加密分析师Korfh Khaneghah是零复杂性交易的创始人，强调了Solana的持续下降趋势

A technical analysis shared today by crypto analyst Koroush Khaneghah, Founder of Zero Complexity Trading, highlights Solana’s ongoing downtrend and identifies key support and resistance levels on the SOL/USDT Perpetual (Binance) daily timeframe. According to the analysis, Solana has lost several key zones and is currently hovering near the $157 area, which Khaneghah labels as the “last major support level.”

零复杂性交易的创始人Khaneghah今天分享了一项技术分析，重点介绍了Solana的持续下降趋势，并确定了SOL/USDT永久（Binance）每日时间范围的关键支持和阻力水平。根据分析，索拉纳（Solana）失去了几个关键区域，目前正徘徊在157美元的地区，Khaneghah将其标记为“最后的主要支持水平”。

The Bearish Case For Solana

索拉纳的看跌案

“The downtrend continues as SOL gets rejected by another S/R flip and crashes down to the $150 level. Sentiment at an all-time low. Assume continuation until proven otherwise,” Khaneghah writes via X.

“由于SOL被另一个S/R翻转拒绝，并跌至150美元的水平，因此下降趋势继续进行。情感以历史最低点。假设继续进行，直到另有证明为止。” Khaneghah通过X写道。

A prominent feature of the analysis is a support/resistance (S/R) flip around $180.58. Earlier in February, Solana attempted to reclaim this level but was met with strong selling pressure. The failure to secure a daily close above $180.58—now acting as resistance—signaled renewed downside momentum.

该分析的一个突出特征是支撑/阻力（S/R）翻转约180.58美元。 2月初，索拉纳（Solana）试图收回这一水平，但遭受了巨大的销售压力。未能确保每天关闭$ 180.58的收盘价（现在是电阻）的征兆，更新了下行势头。

Following the drop, Solana has settled just above $157, marked on the chart as the “Last major support level.” Prices have briefly dipped below this zone, suggesting fragility in the market’s current stance. A failure to hold $157 on daily closes increases the possibility of further decline toward the next significant horizontal line around $127.05—visible at the lower end of the chart.

下降后，索拉纳（Solana）在$ 157的价格下方定居，在图表上标记为“最后的主要支持水平”。价格短暂下降到该区域以下，这表明市场目前的立场脆弱。每日关闭时未能持有157美元，这会增加向下一个重要水平线进一步下降的可能性，降至127.05美元，在图表的下端可见。

Koroush’s annotations also indicate that crossing back above $180.58 would shift the market bias from bearish to “neutral.” Until that happens, the analyst cautions that sellers appear to be in control, with negative sentiment around meme coins reinforcing the ongoing downtrend.

KOUFH的注释还表明，返回到180.58美元以上的人会将市场偏见从看跌转移到“中性”。在发生这种情况之前，分析师警告说，卖方似乎处于控制之中，对模因硬币的负面情绪加剧了正在进行的下降趋势。

The Bullish Case For SOL

索尔的看涨案件

Meanwhile, another technical analysis by crypto analyst RunnerXBT (@RunnerXBT) focuses on the Solana (SOL) futures chart (2-hour timeframe on Binance) today, sharing a orderflow analysis of the price action ahead of the upcoming March 1 unlock.

同时，Crypto Analyst RunnerXBT（@runnerxbt）的另一项技术分析重点介绍了Solana（Sol）期货图表（今天的2小时时间范围），在即将到来的3月1日起解锁之前，分享了对价格行动的订单流量分析。

In the annotated chart, the price peaked in mid-January, reaching $295, before beginning a steady descent that has most recently seen SOL hovering in the mid-$150 range. The chart shows that from early to late January, there was a significant drop in open interest (OI) alongside a slide in the price, with Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) suggesting it was driven primarily by long positions closing. RunnerXBT’s notes attribute this to SOL weakness moving largely in tandem (1:1) with Bitcoin.

在带注释的图表中，价格在1月中旬达到顶峰，达到295美元，然后开始了一个稳定的下降，最近看到Sol在150美元的中期徘徊。该图表显示，从1月初到下旬，价格下降的价格大幅下降，价格下降了，累计数量达美（CVD）表明，这主要是由长位置结束的。 RunnerXBT的注释将其归因于Sol Bealness在很大程度上与比特币一起在串联（1：1）中移动。

By late January, after a more pronounced downward move, the price and OI both settled at lower levels. OI briefly rebounded in early February, though the chart indicates that initial long positioning was soon followed by short covering as traders pivoted to profit-taking or closed losing short positions. Despite this activity, SOL’s price was unable to mount a sustained uptrend, reinforcing a broader sense of hesitancy among traders.

到1月下旬，经过更加明显的下降行动，价格和OI都达到了较低的水平。 OI在2月初短暂反弹，尽管该图表表明最初的长位置很快被短暂覆盖，因为交易者枢纽可谋取利润或封闭的丢失职位。尽管进行了此类活动，但Sol的价格仍无法实现持续的上升趋势，从而增强了交易者之间更广泛的犹豫感。

Around mid-February (February 16–18) and again on February 24, the chart highlights phases of “aggressive shorting and spot selling,” which contributed to persistent downward pressure on the price. Though there were instances of short covering (notably around February 21, where CVD ticked up slightly), the overall momentum has remained subdued, with few signs of new long accumulation.

2月中旬（2月16日至18日）左右，在2月24日，该图表突出了“积极的短路和现场销售”的阶段，这导致价格持续下降压力。尽管有一些覆盖范围短的情况（尤其是在2月21日左右，CVD略有滴答作用），但总体势头仍然柔和，几乎没有新的长期积累迹象。

On the right side of the chart, RunnerXBT has placed a vertical red line marking March 1 as the date of what he calls the “biggest SOL unlock known to mankind.” Many market participants appear to be “front-running” the event by selling in anticipation of a flood of new tokens hitting the market, which could drive heightened volatility.

在图表的右侧，RunnerXBT在3月1日标记了一条垂直的红线，作为他所谓的“人类已知的最大索尔解锁”的日期。许多市场参与者似乎是通过销售新的代币涌入市场的销售而成为活动的“最佳播放”，这可能会增加波动性的提高。

Yet, in his post, RunnerXBT warns against shorting SOL at current levels, explaining that he initially started monitoring this situation when the token traded just under $200 and is now seeking a scalp long after the unlock has happened. He points out that attempts to catch every 5–10% daily drop are dangerous and that traders who do so risk frequent stop-outs or liquidations.

然而，在他的帖子中，RunnerXBT警告说，当时代币交易不到200美元时，他最初开始监视这种情况，并在解锁发生后很长一段时间都在寻求头皮。他指出，尝试每天5-10％下降的尝试是危险的，而这样做的交易者却经常停止或清算。

“I dont think its a wise “new” short here of SOL. I started posting about the situation at jus under $200 per SOL. I am looking for a scalp long AFTER the unlock, people “frontrunning” it are getting stopped out or liquidated. You aren’t a hero catching -5% to -10% daily falling knives. […] TLDR: Looking for longs (not 5 days before unlock). NOT shorts. if people can’t read, i can’t help you,” he writes via X.

“我不认为这是Sol的明智的“新”。我开始发布有关JUS的情况低于200美元的情况。我正在寻找一只头皮，在解锁后很长时间，人们“ frontrund”它被停止或清算。您不是每天跌落刀的英雄-5％至-10％。 […] TLDR：寻找渴望（不锁定前5天）。不是短裤。如果人们看不懂，我将无法帮助您，”他通过X写道。

At press time, SOL trades at $158.

发稿时，SOL的交易价格为158美元。