Solana ETF：可能還是不可能？

長達一年的交易所交易基金 (ETF) 熱潮，比特幣和以太坊 ETF 分別獲得批准和提議，在 VanEck 於 2024 年 6 月首次提交文件後，最近轉向了 Solana。

After an extended period of anticipation, exchange-traded fund (ETF) buzz has shifted towards Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) with the latest filings. The approval prospects have sparked varied opinions among analysts.

經過長時間的預期，根據最新的文件，交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的熱度已轉向 Solana (CRYPTO: SOL)。批准前景引發了分析師的不同意見。

Following the filing of Form 19b-4s with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for both VanEck and 21Shares Solana ETFs by the Cboe stock exchange on Monday, ETF Store founder Nate Geraci highlighted that the acknowledgment of these filings would begin the countdown to a verdict.

繼週一 Cboe 證券交易所向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交 VanEck 和 21Shares Solana ETF 的 19b-4s 表後，ETF Store 創始人 Nate Geraci 強調，承認這些文件將開始倒數判決。

The ETF store founder’s comments were followed by additional insights from Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, outlining possible outcomes based on political developments.

ETF 商店創始人發表評論後，彭博社分析師 Eric Balchunas 提出了更多見解，概述了基於政治發展的可能結果。

Balchunas noted that the final deadline for a decision on the SOL ETFs will likely fall next year, with mid-March 2025 as a plausible timeframe. He highlighted the upcoming November US elections as a significant factor influencing the fate of the proposed investment option. If the current government remains in power, the ETFs are likely to face rejection.

Balchunas 指出，就 SOL ETF 做出決定的最終期限可能會在明年，其中 2025 年 3 月中旬是一個合理的時間框架。他強調即將到來的 11 月美國大選是影響擬議投資選擇命運的重要因素。如果現任政府繼續執政，ETF 可能會面臨拒絕。

However, the ETF analyst offered a contrasting viewpoint, suggesting that if the political landscape shifts to favor presidential candidate Donald Trump, there could be a chance of approval for the ETFs. Balchunas’ comments echo the sentiments of an industry executive on how the present regulatory leadership impacts the ETF.

然而，這位 ETF 分析師提出了相反的觀點，認為如果政治格局轉向有利於總統候選人唐納德·川普，那麼 ETF 可能有機會獲得批准。 Balchunas 的言論呼應了一位業界主管對目前監管領導階層如何影響 ETF 的看法。

According to VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research, Matthew Sigel, in a recent Bloomberg interview, the potential introduction of exchange-traded products linked to Solana faces significant challenges under the current regulatory leadership in the United States.

VanEck 數位資產研究主管 Matthew Sigel 在最近接受彭博社採訪時表示，在美國當前的監管領導下，與 Solana 相關的交易所交易產品的潛在推出面臨重大挑戰。

Highlighting that the approval largely depends on potential shifts within the SEC, Sigel noted that the regulatory body’s stringent criteria for altcoin ETFs, outlined by the present SEC Chair Gary Gensler, would pose obstacles, indicating slim chances of approval for the proposals.

Sigel 強調，批准很大程度上取決於 SEC 內部的潛在變化，並指出，SEC 現任主席 Gary Gensler 概述的監管機構對山寨幣 ETF 的嚴格標準將構成障礙，表明該提案獲得批准的機會很小。

The VanEck executive also noted that the commission could use the absence of a regulated futures market for SOL, while not a requirement for approval, to reject the ETF proposals.

VanEck 高層還指出，委員會可以利用 SOL 缺乏受監管的期貨市場（而不是批准的要求）來拒絕 ETF 提案。

He added that a change in the commission’s leadership is expected regardless of the upcoming election outcome, which might offer hope for a potential Solana ETF approval.

他補充說，無論即將到來的選舉結果如何，預計該委員會的領導層都會發生變化，這可能為 Solana ETF 獲得批准帶來希望。