Solana ETFs: Likely or Unlikely?

The year-long exchange-traded funds (ETFs) buzz, which has seen the approval and proposal of both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, respectively, has recently shifted to Solana following VanEck's inaugural filing in June 2024.

After an extended period of anticipation, exchange-traded fund (ETF) buzz has shifted towards Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) with the latest filings. The approval prospects have sparked varied opinions among analysts.

Following the filing of Form 19b-4s with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for both VanEck and 21Shares Solana ETFs by the Cboe stock exchange on Monday, ETF Store founder Nate Geraci highlighted that the acknowledgment of these filings would begin the countdown to a verdict.

The ETF store founder’s comments were followed by additional insights from Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, outlining possible outcomes based on political developments.

Balchunas noted that the final deadline for a decision on the SOL ETFs will likely fall next year, with mid-March 2025 as a plausible timeframe. He highlighted the upcoming November US elections as a significant factor influencing the fate of the proposed investment option. If the current government remains in power, the ETFs are likely to face rejection.

However, the ETF analyst offered a contrasting viewpoint, suggesting that if the political landscape shifts to favor presidential candidate Donald Trump, there could be a chance of approval for the ETFs. Balchunas’ comments echo the sentiments of an industry executive on how the present regulatory leadership impacts the ETF.

According to VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research, Matthew Sigel, in a recent Bloomberg interview, the potential introduction of exchange-traded products linked to Solana faces significant challenges under the current regulatory leadership in the United States.

Highlighting that the approval largely depends on potential shifts within the SEC, Sigel noted that the regulatory body’s stringent criteria for altcoin ETFs, outlined by the present SEC Chair Gary Gensler, would pose obstacles, indicating slim chances of approval for the proposals.

The VanEck executive also noted that the commission could use the absence of a regulated futures market for SOL, while not a requirement for approval, to reject the ETF proposals.

He added that a change in the commission’s leadership is expected regardless of the upcoming election outcome, which might offer hope for a potential Solana ETF approval.