Solana ETF：可能还是不可能？

长达一年的交易所交易基金 (ETF) 热潮，比特币和以太坊 ETF 分别获得批准和提议，在 VanEck 于 2024 年 6 月首次提交文件后，最近转向了 Solana。

After an extended period of anticipation, exchange-traded fund (ETF) buzz has shifted towards Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) with the latest filings. The approval prospects have sparked varied opinions among analysts.

经过长时间的预期，根据最新的文件，交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的热度已转向 Solana (CRYPTO: SOL)。批准前景引发了分析师的不同意见。

Following the filing of Form 19b-4s with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for both VanEck and 21Shares Solana ETFs by the Cboe stock exchange on Monday, ETF Store founder Nate Geraci highlighted that the acknowledgment of these filings would begin the countdown to a verdict.

继周一 Cboe 证券交易所向美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 提交 VanEck 和 21Shares Solana ETF 的 19b-4s 表后，ETF Store 创始人 Nate Geraci 强调，承认这些文件将开始倒计时判决。

The ETF store founder’s comments were followed by additional insights from Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, outlining possible outcomes based on political developments.

ETF 商店创始人发表评论后，彭博社分析师埃里克·巴尔丘纳斯 (Eric Balchunas) 提出了更多见解，概述了基于政治发展的可能结果。

Balchunas noted that the final deadline for a decision on the SOL ETFs will likely fall next year, with mid-March 2025 as a plausible timeframe. He highlighted the upcoming November US elections as a significant factor influencing the fate of the proposed investment option. If the current government remains in power, the ETFs are likely to face rejection.

Balchunas 指出，就 SOL ETF 做出决定的最终期限可能会在明年，其中 2025 年 3 月中旬是一个合理的时间框架。他强调即将到来的 11 月美国大选是影响拟议投资选择命运的重要因素。如果现任政府继续执政，ETF 可能会面临拒绝。

However, the ETF analyst offered a contrasting viewpoint, suggesting that if the political landscape shifts to favor presidential candidate Donald Trump, there could be a chance of approval for the ETFs. Balchunas’ comments echo the sentiments of an industry executive on how the present regulatory leadership impacts the ETF.

然而，这位 ETF 分析师提出了相反的观点，认为如果政治格局转向有利于总统候选人唐纳德·特朗普，那么 ETF 可能有机会获得批准。 Balchunas 的言论呼应了一位行业高管对当前监管领导层如何影响 ETF 的看法。

According to VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research, Matthew Sigel, in a recent Bloomberg interview, the potential introduction of exchange-traded products linked to Solana faces significant challenges under the current regulatory leadership in the United States.

VanEck 数字资产研究主管 Matthew Sigel 在最近接受彭博社采访时表示，在美国当前的监管领导下，与 Solana 相关的交易所交易产品的潜在推出面临着重大挑战。

Highlighting that the approval largely depends on potential shifts within the SEC, Sigel noted that the regulatory body’s stringent criteria for altcoin ETFs, outlined by the present SEC Chair Gary Gensler, would pose obstacles, indicating slim chances of approval for the proposals.

Sigel 强调，批准很大程度上取决于 SEC 内部的潜在变化，并指出，SEC 现任主席 Gary Gensler 概述的监管机构对山寨币 ETF 的严格标准将构成障碍，表明该提案获得批准的机会很小。

The VanEck executive also noted that the commission could use the absence of a regulated futures market for SOL, while not a requirement for approval, to reject the ETF proposals.

VanEck 高管还指出，委员会可以利用 SOL 缺乏受监管的期货市场（而不是批准的要求）来拒绝 ETF 提案。

He added that a change in the commission’s leadership is expected regardless of the upcoming election outcome, which might offer hope for a potential Solana ETF approval.

他补充说，无论即将到来的选举结果如何，预计该委员会的领导层都会发生变化，这可能为 Solana ETF 获得批准带来希望。