2025 年伊始，加密貨幣市場就不穩定

在 1 月 7 日短暫突破 10 萬美元的象徵性門檻後，比特幣經歷了驚人的轉變，在幾個小時內跌至 92,500 美元。

After briefly exceeding the symbolic threshold of 100,000 dollars on January 7, Bitcoin experienced a spectacular turnaround, dropping to 92,500 dollars in a matter of hours on January 8. This sudden retreat can be attributed to significant macroeconomic elements rather than any technical factor.

在1 月7 日短暫突破10 萬美元的象徵性門檻後，比特幣經歷了一次驚人的轉變，在1 月8 日的幾個小時內跌至92,500 美元。宏觀經濟因素，而非任何技術因素。

Investors are closely monitoring the monetary policy of the American Federal Reserve (Fed), whose decisions directly influence financial markets. Many anticipated a decrease in interest rates as early as the first quarter of 2025, a prospect that would have supported Bitcoin’s upward momentum. However, the latest economic data in the United States indicates stronger-than-expected growth, which calls this hypothesis into question. As a result, markets are reevaluating their expectations and adjusting their positions. This uncertainty triggered a wave of liquidations that brought Bitcoin down.

投資者密切關注美國聯邦儲備委員會（Fed）的貨幣政策，其決策直接影響金融市場。許多人預計利率最早會在 2025 年第一季下降，這一前景將支持比特幣的上漲勢頭。然而，美國最新的經濟數據顯示成長強於預期，這讓這項假設受到質疑。因此，市場正在重新評估預期並調整部位。這種不確定性引發了一波清算浪潮，導致比特幣下跌。

A market on alert in the face of the Fed’s decisions

面對聯準會的決定，市場保持警惕

For several weeks now, the evolution of American monetary policy has heavily impacted financial markets, particularly cryptocurrencies. Initially, many investors hoped for a decrease in interest rates as early as the first quarter of 2025, a perspective that would have supported Bitcoin’s upward momentum. However, the latest economic indicators released in the United States show a more resilient economy than expected. Such a finding calls into question the assumption of a rapid easing of monetary policy and prompts the Federal Reserve (Fed) to consider a prolonged maintenance of high rates.

幾週來，美國貨幣政策的演變嚴重影響了金融市場，尤其是加密貨幣。最初，許多投資者希望最早在 2025 年第一季降息，這一觀點將支持比特幣的上漲勢頭。不過，美國公佈的最新經濟指標顯示，美國經濟比預期更具彈性。這項發現對快速寬鬆貨幣政策的假設提出了質疑，並促使聯準會考慮長期維持高利率。

This reevaluation had an immediate impact on the markets. According to Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, "strong economic data in the United States suggests that the Fed may maintain high rates longer than expected, which directly weighs on risk assets like Bitcoin." The announcement of this perspective led to a massive wave of liquidations, with over 631 million dollars in long positions liquidated in just 24 hours, according to data from CoinGlass.

這次重新評估對市場產生了直接影響。 Bitget Research首席分析師Ryan Lee表示，“美國強勁的經濟數據表明，聯準會維持高利率的時間可能會長於預期，這直接打壓比特幣等風險資產。”根據 CoinGlass 的數據，這一觀點的公佈引發了大規模的清算浪潮，短短 24 小時內就有超過 6.31 億美元的多頭部位被清算。

In this context, investor expectations have evolved. While they were counting on an initial rate cut as early as March 2025, projections from the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool now indicate that the Fed may wait until June 2025 before initiating monetary easing. This uncertainty quickly affected Bitcoin, whose price slipped below 92,500 dollars before a slight rebound on January 9 to 93,000 dollars, marking one of the most significant corrections in several weeks.

在此背景下，投資者的預期發生了變化。雖然他們預計最早會在 2025 年 3 月首次降息，但芝商所 (CME Group) 的 FedWatch 工具現在的預測表明，聯準會可能會等到 2025 年 6 月才開始貨幣寬鬆。這種不確定性很快就影響了比特幣，其價格跌破 92,500 美元，然後在 1 月 9 日小幅反彈至 93,000 美元，這是幾週來最重大的調整之一。

The entire crypto market has suffered the consequences of this movement. Thus, Bitcoin’s decline caused a domino effect on other cryptocurrencies, amplifying the correction, which once again illustrates the strong correlation between macroeconomic decisions and the risk assets sector. This situation raises questions about the market’s ability to rebound in the face of an increasingly restrictive economic environment.

整個加密貨幣市場都遭受了這項運動的後果。由此可見，比特幣的下跌對其他加密貨幣造成了骨牌效應，放大了回調，這再次說明了宏觀經濟決策與風險資產領域之間的強相關性。這種情況引發了人們對市場在日益緊張的經濟環境下反彈能力的質疑。

Towards a new correction or an imminent rebound?

走向新的調整還是即將反彈？

Although this correction has affected investor confidence, several observers believe it does not undermine the long-term bullish trend. According to John Glover, investment director at Ledn and former executive at Barclays, this decline could even be a necessary step before a new surge. “We could test the 90,000 dollar range before registering a significant movement above 126,000 dollars,” he asserts. His analysis is based on Elliott wave theory, a model that suggests Bitcoin is currently undergoing a fourth corrective wave, potentially heralding a future bullish impulse.

儘管此次調整影響了投資人的信心，但一些觀察家認為，這並不會削弱長期看漲趨勢。 Ledn 投資總監、巴克萊銀行前高階主管 John Glover 表示，這種下跌甚至可能是新一輪上漲之前的必要步驟。他斷言：“我們可以先測試 90,000 美元的區間，然後再觀察到 126,000 美元上方的大幅波動。”他的分析基於艾略特波浪理論，該模型表明比特幣目前正在經歷第四波修正浪潮，可能預示著未來的看漲衝動。

Other technical indicators support this perspective. Rekt Capital, a crypto analyst followed by many investors, warns about the importance of the 91,000 dollar threshold, which represents a major support level to avoid a deeper retreat. In a post on platform X (formerly Twitter) on January 8, 2024, he clarifies that “Bitcoin has lost its support at 101,165 dollars and is back in the 91,000 to 101,165 dollar range.” A bounce at this level could signal the end of the correction phase and initiate a gradual return to higher levels.

其他技術指標也支持這一觀點。受到許多投資者關注的加密貨幣分析師 Rekt Capital 對 91,000 美元門檻的重要性發出警告，該門檻代表了避免進一步下跌的主要支撐位。 2024 年 1 月 8 日，他在 X 平台（前 Twitter）上發帖澄清，“比特幣已失去 101,165 美元的支撐，回到 91,000 至 101,165 美元的區間。”該水準的反彈可能標誌著修正階段的結束，並開始逐漸返回到更高的水平。

Beyond technical analysis, some investors remain confident in Bitcoin’s bullish potential in the medium term. The projection of a 20 trillion dollar increase in global money supply could inject up to 2 trillion dollars into the Bitcoin market, thereby stimulating demand. However, dependence on the Federal Reserve’s decisions will continue to dictate the market’s pace. If American monetary policy becomes more accommodative in the coming months, Bitcoin could reconnect with a more favorable dynamic and continue its ascent.

除了技術分析之外，一些投資者仍然對比特幣中期內的看漲潛力充滿信心。全球貨幣供應量預計將增加 20 兆美元，這可能會向比特幣市場注入高達 2 兆美元，從而刺激需求。然而，對聯準會決策的依賴將繼續決定市場的步伐。如果美國貨幣政策在未來幾個月變得更加寬鬆，比特幣可能會重新與更有利的動態連結並繼續上漲。

As the market absorbs this correction, some observers maintain an optimistic outlook on Bitcoin’s evolution. In the long term, an increase in global money supply and a potential return of institutional flows could stimulate a new phase of growth. However, current volatility underscores the significant influence of the Federal Reserve’s decisions on risk assets. If the Fed opts for a prolonged maintenance of its restrictive monetary policy, Bitcoin may remain under pressure. Conversely, easing interest rates in the coming months would provide a more favorable context for a recovery.

隨著市場吸收這種調整，一些觀察家對比特幣的發展保持樂觀的前景。從長遠來看，全球貨幣供應量的增加和機構流動的潛在回歸可能會刺激新的成長階段。然而，目前的波動凸顯了聯準會決策對風險資產的重大影響。如果聯準會選擇長期維持其限制性貨幣政策，比特幣可能仍面臨壓力。相反，未來幾個月的降息將為經濟復甦提供更有利的環境。