2025 年伊始，加密货币市场就不稳定

在 1 月 7 日短暂突破 100,000 美元的象征性门槛后，比特币经历了惊人的转变，在几个小时内跌至 92,500 美元。

After briefly exceeding the symbolic threshold of 100,000 dollars on January 7, Bitcoin experienced a spectacular turnaround, dropping to 92,500 dollars in a matter of hours on January 8. This sudden retreat can be attributed to significant macroeconomic elements rather than any technical factor.

在 1 月 7 日短暂突破 10 万美元的象征性门槛后，比特币经历了一次惊人的转变，在 1 月 8 日的几个小时内跌至 92,500 美元。这种突然回落可以归因于重要的宏观经济因素，而不是任何技术因素。

Investors are closely monitoring the monetary policy of the American Federal Reserve (Fed), whose decisions directly influence financial markets. Many anticipated a decrease in interest rates as early as the first quarter of 2025, a prospect that would have supported Bitcoin’s upward momentum. However, the latest economic data in the United States indicates stronger-than-expected growth, which calls this hypothesis into question. As a result, markets are reevaluating their expectations and adjusting their positions. This uncertainty triggered a wave of liquidations that brought Bitcoin down.

投资者密切关注美国联邦储备委员会（Fed）的货币政策，其决策直接影响金融市场。许多人预计利率最早会在 2025 年第一季度下降，这一前景将支持比特币的上涨势头。然而，美国最新的经济数据显示增长强于预期，这让这一假设受到质疑。因此，市场正在重新评估预期并调整头寸。这种不确定性引发了一波清算浪潮，导致比特币下跌。

A market on alert in the face of the Fed’s decisions

面对美联储的决定，市场保持警惕

For several weeks now, the evolution of American monetary policy has heavily impacted financial markets, particularly cryptocurrencies. Initially, many investors hoped for a decrease in interest rates as early as the first quarter of 2025, a perspective that would have supported Bitcoin’s upward momentum. However, the latest economic indicators released in the United States show a more resilient economy than expected. Such a finding calls into question the assumption of a rapid easing of monetary policy and prompts the Federal Reserve (Fed) to consider a prolonged maintenance of high rates.

几周来，美国货币政策的演变严重影响了金融市场，尤其是加密货币。最初，许多投资者希望最早在 2025 年第一季度降息，这一观点将支持比特币的上涨势头。不过，美国公布的最新经济指标显示，美国经济比预期更具弹性。这一发现对快速宽松货币政策的假设提出了质疑，并促使美联储考虑长期维持高利率。

This reevaluation had an immediate impact on the markets. According to Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, "strong economic data in the United States suggests that the Fed may maintain high rates longer than expected, which directly weighs on risk assets like Bitcoin." The announcement of this perspective led to a massive wave of liquidations, with over 631 million dollars in long positions liquidated in just 24 hours, according to data from CoinGlass.

这次重新评估对市场产生了直接影响。 Bitget Research首席分析师Ryan Lee表示，“美国强劲的经济数据表明，美联储维持高利率的时间可能会长于预期，这直接打压比特币等风险资产。”根据 CoinGlass 的数据，这一观点的公布引发了大规模的清算浪潮，短短 24 小时内就有超过 6.31 亿美元的多头头寸被清算。

In this context, investor expectations have evolved. While they were counting on an initial rate cut as early as March 2025, projections from the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool now indicate that the Fed may wait until June 2025 before initiating monetary easing. This uncertainty quickly affected Bitcoin, whose price slipped below 92,500 dollars before a slight rebound on January 9 to 93,000 dollars, marking one of the most significant corrections in several weeks.

在此背景下，投资者的预期发生了变化。虽然他们预计最早会在 2025 年 3 月首次降息，但芝商所 (CME Group) 的 FedWatch 工具现在的预测表明，美联储可能会等到 2025 年 6 月才开始货币宽松。这种不确定性很快影响了比特币，其价格跌破 92,500 美元，然后于 1 月 9 日小幅反弹至 93,000 美元，这是几周来最重大的调整之一。

The entire crypto market has suffered the consequences of this movement. Thus, Bitcoin’s decline caused a domino effect on other cryptocurrencies, amplifying the correction, which once again illustrates the strong correlation between macroeconomic decisions and the risk assets sector. This situation raises questions about the market’s ability to rebound in the face of an increasingly restrictive economic environment.

整个加密货币市场都遭受了这一运动的后果。由此可见，比特币的下跌对其他加密货币造成了多米诺骨牌效应，放大了回调，这再次说明了宏观经济决策与风险资产领域之间的强相关性。这种情况引发了人们对市场在日益紧张的经济环境下反弹能力的质疑。

Towards a new correction or an imminent rebound?

走向新的调整还是即将反弹？

Although this correction has affected investor confidence, several observers believe it does not undermine the long-term bullish trend. According to John Glover, investment director at Ledn and former executive at Barclays, this decline could even be a necessary step before a new surge. “We could test the 90,000 dollar range before registering a significant movement above 126,000 dollars,” he asserts. His analysis is based on Elliott wave theory, a model that suggests Bitcoin is currently undergoing a fourth corrective wave, potentially heralding a future bullish impulse.

尽管这次调整影响了投资者的信心，但一些观察人士认为，这并没有削弱长期看涨趋势。 Ledn 投资总监、巴克莱银行前高管约翰·格洛弗 (John Glover) 表示，这种下跌甚至可能是新一轮上涨之前的必要步骤。他断言：“我们可以先测试 90,000 美元的区间，然后再观察到 126,000 美元上方的大幅波动。”他的分析基于艾略特波浪理论，该模型表明比特币目前正在经历第四波修正浪潮，可能预示着未来的看涨冲动。

Other technical indicators support this perspective. Rekt Capital, a crypto analyst followed by many investors, warns about the importance of the 91,000 dollar threshold, which represents a major support level to avoid a deeper retreat. In a post on platform X (formerly Twitter) on January 8, 2024, he clarifies that “Bitcoin has lost its support at 101,165 dollars and is back in the 91,000 to 101,165 dollar range.” A bounce at this level could signal the end of the correction phase and initiate a gradual return to higher levels.

其他技术指标也支持这一观点。受到许多投资者关注的加密货币分析师 Rekt Capital 对 91,000 美元门槛的重要性发出警告，该门槛代表了避免进一步下跌的主要支撑位。 2024 年 1 月 8 日，他在 X 平台（前 Twitter）上发帖澄清，“比特币已失去 101,165 美元的支撑，回到 91,000 至 101,165 美元的区间。”该水平的反弹可能标志着修正阶段的结束，并开始逐渐返回到更高的水平。

Beyond technical analysis, some investors remain confident in Bitcoin’s bullish potential in the medium term. The projection of a 20 trillion dollar increase in global money supply could inject up to 2 trillion dollars into the Bitcoin market, thereby stimulating demand. However, dependence on the Federal Reserve’s decisions will continue to dictate the market’s pace. If American monetary policy becomes more accommodative in the coming months, Bitcoin could reconnect with a more favorable dynamic and continue its ascent.

除了技术分析之外，一些投资者仍然对比特币中期内的看涨潜力充满信心。全球货币供应量预计将增加 20 万亿美元，这可能会向比特币市场注入高达 2 万亿美元，从而刺激需求。然而，对美联储决策的依赖将继续决定市场的步伐。如果美国货币政策在未来几个月变得更加宽松，比特币可能会重新与更有利的动态联系起来并继续上涨。

As the market absorbs this correction, some observers maintain an optimistic outlook on Bitcoin’s evolution. In the long term, an increase in global money supply and a potential return of institutional flows could stimulate a new phase of growth. However, current volatility underscores the significant influence of the Federal Reserve’s decisions on risk assets. If the Fed opts for a prolonged maintenance of its restrictive monetary policy, Bitcoin may remain under pressure. Conversely, easing interest rates in the coming months would provide a more favorable context for a recovery.

随着市场吸收这种调整，一些观察家对比特币的发展保持乐观的前景。从长远来看，全球货币供应量的增加和机构流动的潜在回归可能会刺激新的增长阶段。然而，当前的波动凸显了美联储决策对风险资产的重大影响。如果美联储选择长期维持其限制性货币政策，比特币可能仍面临压力。相反，未来几个月的降息将为经济复苏提供更有利的环境。