比特幣逼近 8 萬美元，空頭擠壓加劇

比特幣 (BTC) 接近 70,000 美元，猜測表明賣空者面臨壓力，可能將比特幣推向 80,000 美元。軋空的主要因素是機構多頭部位與對沖基金空頭部位之間的巨大差距。比特幣的價格跌幅正在縮短，飆升至 75,000 美元可能會清算 38.5 億美元的空頭部位。分析師表示，比特幣價格可能會出現劇烈波動，並推測今年比特幣價格可能達到 10 萬美元。

As Bitcoin (BTC) hovers around the $70,000 threshold, analysts believe short-sellers are facing intensified pressure, potentially driving the cryptocurrency's price towards $80,000.

隨著比特幣 (BTC) 徘徊在 70,000 美元的關卡附近，分析師認為賣空者面臨更大的壓力，可能會推動加密貨幣的價格升至 80,000 美元。

Short Squeeze Intensifies

空頭擠壓加劇

The Kobeissi Letter, a trading resource, observed in a recent analysis that "this is a textbook sign that shorts are being squeezed as we hit fresh all-time high territory." The analysis attributes this squeeze to a record-high margin between institutional long positions and hedge fund short positions.

交易資源《Kobeissi Letter》在最近的分析中指出，“這是一個教科書般的跡象，表明隨著我們觸及新的歷史高點，空頭正在受到擠壓。”分析將這種擠壓歸因於機構多頭部位和對沖基金空頭部位之間創紀錄的高利潤率。

Data from The Kobeissi Letter indicates that institutions hold approximately 20,000 net long contracts, while hedge funds hold around 15,000 net short contracts. As Bitcoin's price continues to rise, the squeeze on short-sellers intensifies.

《Kobeissi Letter》的數據顯示，機構持有約 20,000 份淨多頭合約，而對沖基金持有約 15,000 份淨空頭合約。隨著比特幣價格持續上漲，賣空者的擠壓加劇。

Diminishing Price Dips

價格跌幅逐漸縮小

Another factor contributing to the short squeeze is Bitcoin's increasingly brief price dips. Over the past seven days, Bitcoin's lowest point was $61,224, while its peak reached $71,511, representing a gap of only 8.7%.

造成空頭擠壓的另一個因素是比特幣價格日益短暫的下跌。過去7天，比特幣最低點為61,224美元，最高點達71,511美元，差距僅8.7%。

Liquidation Thresholds

清算門檻

Should Bitcoin reach $71,000, approximately $156.18 million in short positions would be liquidated, according to CoinGlass data. A further surge to $75,000 would trigger the liquidation of $3.85 billion in short positions.

根據 CoinGlass 的數據，如果比特幣達到 71,000 美元，大約 1.5618 億美元的空頭部位將被清算。進一步飆升至 75,000 美元將觸發 38.5 億美元的空頭部位清算。

Potential for Unprecedented Highs

達到前所未有的高度的潛力

Pav Hundal, lead analyst at crypto exchange Swyftx, suggests that if a short squeeze materializes, Bitcoin could experience "violent price action" and potentially reach $80,000. He believes that this could pave the way for Bitcoin to challenge the $100,000 mark later this year.

加密貨幣交易所 Swyftx 首席分析師 Pav Hundal 表示，如果軋空成為現實，比特幣可能會經歷“劇烈的價格走勢”，並有可能達到 80,000 美元。他認為這可能為比特幣今年稍後挑戰 10 萬美元大關鋪平道路。

Asset Managers' Positioning

資產管理公司的定位

Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows that asset managers currently hold record-high long exposure to BTC. Hundal suggests that asset managers may be employing a hedging strategy by simultaneously holding both long and short positions.

芝加哥商業交易所的數據顯示，資產管理公司目前持有的比特幣多頭部位創歷史新高。洪達爾認為，資產管理公司可能透過同時持有多頭和空頭部位來採用對沖策略。

"It's likely that those same investors are covering their bets by taking out shorts," Hundal explained. "Institutional investors will be happy to pay a premium to protect their downside risk."

洪達爾解釋說：“這些投資者很可能通過做空來平倉。” “機構投資者將樂意支付溢價以保護其下行風險。”

Upcoming Halving Event

即將到來的減半事件

Cory Klippsten, CEO of Swan Bitcoin, suggests that increased trading activity may be driven by anticipation for Bitcoin's upcoming halving event on April 21.

Swan Bitcoin 執行長 Cory Klippsten 表示，交易活動增加可能是由於 4 月 21 日比特幣即將減半事件的預期推動的。

"Bitcoin's halving event is historically marked by speculative trading," Klippsten said. "Traders buy the rumor and sell the news." He cautions that this could lead to a temporary price downturn post-halving.

Klippsten 表示：“從歷史上看，比特幣減半事件的特點是投機交易。” “交易者買入謠言並賣出新聞。”他警告說，這可能會導致減半後價格暫時下跌。

Conclusion

結論

As Bitcoin continues to push against the $70,000 barrier, short-sellers face mounting pressure amidst a diminishing downside and a strengthening uptrend. The potential for a short squeeze, combined with aggressive positioning by asset managers and anticipation for the halving event, suggest that Bitcoin's rally may not be over yet. Analysts believe that the cryptocurrency could potentially surge to unprecedented highs in the near future.

隨著比特幣繼續突破 7 萬美元大關，在下行空間減弱和上升趨勢加強的情況下，賣空者面臨越來越大的壓力。軋空的可能性，加上資產管理公司的激進部位以及對減半事件的預期，表明比特幣的反彈可能尚未結束。分析師認為，加密貨幣可能在不久的將來飆升至前所未有的高點。