比特币逼近 8 万美元，空头挤压加剧

比特币 (BTC) 接近 70,000 美元，猜测表明卖空者面临压力，可能将比特币推向 80,000 美元。轧空的主要因素是机构多头头寸与对冲基金空头头寸之间的巨大差距。比特币的价格跌幅正在缩短，飙升至 75,000 美元可能会清算 38.5 亿美元的空头头寸。分析师表示，比特币价格可能会出现剧烈波动，并推测今年比特币价格可能会达到 10 万美元。

As Bitcoin (BTC) hovers around the $70,000 threshold, analysts believe short-sellers are facing intensified pressure, potentially driving the cryptocurrency's price towards $80,000.

随着比特币 (BTC) 徘徊在 70,000 美元的关口附近，分析师认为卖空者面临更大的压力，可能会推动加密货币的价格升至 80,000 美元。

Short Squeeze Intensifies

空头挤压加剧

The Kobeissi Letter, a trading resource, observed in a recent analysis that "this is a textbook sign that shorts are being squeezed as we hit fresh all-time high territory." The analysis attributes this squeeze to a record-high margin between institutional long positions and hedge fund short positions.

交易资源《Kobeissi Letter》在最近的一份分析中指出，“这是一个教科书般的迹象，表明随着我们触及新的历史高点，空头正在受到挤压。”分析将这种挤压归因于机构多头头寸和对冲基金空头头寸之间创纪录的高利润率。

Data from The Kobeissi Letter indicates that institutions hold approximately 20,000 net long contracts, while hedge funds hold around 15,000 net short contracts. As Bitcoin's price continues to rise, the squeeze on short-sellers intensifies.

《Kobeissi Letter》的数据显示，机构持有约 20,000 份净多头合约，而对冲基金持有约 15,000 份净空头合约。随着比特币价格持续上涨，卖空者的挤压加剧。

Diminishing Price Dips

价格跌幅逐渐缩小

Another factor contributing to the short squeeze is Bitcoin's increasingly brief price dips. Over the past seven days, Bitcoin's lowest point was $61,224, while its peak reached $71,511, representing a gap of only 8.7%.

造成空头挤压的另一个因素是比特币价格日益短暂的下跌。过去7天，比特币最低点为61,224美元，最高点达到71,511美元，差距仅为8.7%。

Liquidation Thresholds

清算门槛

Should Bitcoin reach $71,000, approximately $156.18 million in short positions would be liquidated, according to CoinGlass data. A further surge to $75,000 would trigger the liquidation of $3.85 billion in short positions.

根据 CoinGlass 的数据，如果比特币达到 71,000 美元，大约 1.5618 亿美元的空头头寸将被清算。进一步飙升至 75,000 美元将触发 38.5 亿美元的空头头寸清算。

Potential for Unprecedented Highs

达到前所未有的高度的潜力

Pav Hundal, lead analyst at crypto exchange Swyftx, suggests that if a short squeeze materializes, Bitcoin could experience "violent price action" and potentially reach $80,000. He believes that this could pave the way for Bitcoin to challenge the $100,000 mark later this year.

加密货币交易所 Swyftx 首席分析师 Pav Hundal 表示，如果轧空成为现实，比特币可能会经历“剧烈的价格走势”，并有可能达到 80,000 美元。他认为这可能为比特币今年晚些时候挑战 10 万美元大关铺平道路。

Asset Managers' Positioning

资产管理公司的定位

Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows that asset managers currently hold record-high long exposure to BTC. Hundal suggests that asset managers may be employing a hedging strategy by simultaneously holding both long and short positions.

芝加哥商业交易所的数据显示，资产管理公司目前持有的比特币多头敞口创历史新高。洪达尔认为，资产管理公司可能通过同时持有多头和空头头寸来采用对冲策略。

"It's likely that those same investors are covering their bets by taking out shorts," Hundal explained. "Institutional investors will be happy to pay a premium to protect their downside risk."

洪达尔解释说：“这些投资者很可能通过做空来平仓。” “机构投资者将乐意支付溢价以保护其下行风险。”

Upcoming Halving Event

即将到来的减半事件

Cory Klippsten, CEO of Swan Bitcoin, suggests that increased trading activity may be driven by anticipation for Bitcoin's upcoming halving event on April 21.

Swan Bitcoin 首席执行官 Cory Klippsten 表示，交易活动增加可能是由于对 4 月 21 日比特币即将减半事件的预期推动的。

"Bitcoin's halving event is historically marked by speculative trading," Klippsten said. "Traders buy the rumor and sell the news." He cautions that this could lead to a temporary price downturn post-halving.

Klippsten 表示：“从历史上看，比特币减半事件的特点是投机交易。” “交易者买入谣言并卖出新闻。”他警告说，这可能会导致减半后价格暂时下跌。

Conclusion

结论

As Bitcoin continues to push against the $70,000 barrier, short-sellers face mounting pressure amidst a diminishing downside and a strengthening uptrend. The potential for a short squeeze, combined with aggressive positioning by asset managers and anticipation for the halving event, suggest that Bitcoin's rally may not be over yet. Analysts believe that the cryptocurrency could potentially surge to unprecedented highs in the near future.

随着比特币继续突破 70,000 美元大关，在下行空间减弱和上升趋势加强的情况下，卖空者面临着越来越大的压力。轧空的可能性，加上资产管理公司的激进仓位以及对减半事件的预期，表明比特币的反弹可能尚未结束。分析师认为，加密货币可能在不久的将来飙升至前所未有的高位。