著名交易員彼得·布蘭特警告比特幣可能出現回調，懷疑比特幣上漲勢不可擋

資深交易員 Peter Brandt 最近的分析表明，由於加密貨幣歷史價格週期中觀察到的“指數衰減”，比特幣當前的牛市可能已接近尾聲。 Brandt 預測本週期的潛在高峰價格為 72,723 美元，隨後回撤至 30,000 美元中間甚至更低。不過，他也將黃金市場模式與黃金市場模式進行了比較，顯示調整可能為長期看漲鋪平道路。

Peter Brandt Casts Doubts on Bitcoin's Unbounded Surge, Predicts Potential Retracements

彼得·布蘭特對比特幣的無限飆升表示懷疑，並預測潛在的回調

Renowned trader Peter Brandt has injected a note of caution into the celebratory atmosphere surrounding Bitcoin's recent gains. In a comprehensive analysis entitled "Does history make a case that Bitcoin has topped?", Brandt casts doubt on the idea that the cryptocurrency's price ascent will continue indefinitely, suggesting it may be approaching the zenith of its current bull run.

著名交易員彼得·勃蘭特（Peter Brandt）對圍繞比特幣近期上漲的慶祝氣氛注入了謹慎的態度。在題為「歷史是否證明比特幣已經見頂？」的綜合分析中，布蘭特對加密貨幣價格將無限期持續上漲的觀點表示懷疑，表明它可能正在接近當前牛市的頂峰。

Brandt's analysis revolves around the concept of "exponential decay." By scrutinizing Bitcoin's historical performance, he identifies four distinct bull cycles, with the current one marking the fifth. Intriguingly, Brandt observes a concerning trend: each successive cycle has exhibited a diminishing degree of exponential growth. In other words, the price gains have not been as explosive as they were in earlier cycles.

布蘭特的分析圍繞著「指數衰減」的概念。透過檢視比特幣的歷史表現，他確定了四個不同的牛市週期，目前的牛市週期是第五個。有趣的是，布蘭特觀察到一個令人擔憂的趨勢：每個連續的週期都表現出指數成長程度遞減的趨勢。換句話說，價格上漲並不像早期週期那樣具有爆炸性。

This "exponential dampener" poses a potentially bearish outlook. By extrapolating this trend to the current cycle, Brandt arrives at a sobering prediction: a peak price of approximately $72,723, a level that the top cryptocurrency has already touched in recent trading.

這種「指數抑制器」帶來了潛在的看跌前景。透過將這一趨勢推斷到當前週期，Brandt 得出了一個發人深省的預測：峰值價格約為 72,723 美元，這是頂級加密貨幣在最近的交易中已經觸及的水平。

While acknowledging the historical price boosts associated with halving events (predefined reductions in the creation of new Bitcoins), Brandt emphasizes the undeniable force of exponential decay. This, he argues, suggests a 25% probability that Bitcoin may have already hit its peak for this cycle.

布蘭特承認與減半事件（新比特幣創建的預定減少）相關的歷史價格上漲，但強調了指數衰減的不可否認的力量。他認為，這表明比特幣有 25% 的可能性已經在本週期達到高峰。

BTCUSD is currently trading at $63.772 (as of the time of writing).

BTCUSD 目前交易價格為 63.772 美元（截至撰寫本文時）。

If Brandt's analysis proves accurate, cryptocurrency investors may be in for a bumpy ride. The veteran trader anticipates potential price retracements, with Bitcoin potentially plummeting to the mid-$30,000 range, or even revisiting the 2021 lows.

如果布蘭特的分析被證明是準確的，加密貨幣投資者可能會經歷一段坎坷的旅程。這位經驗豐富的交易員預計，比特幣可能會出現價格回調，跌至 30,000 美元中間的區間，甚至重返 2021 年的低點。

Brandt's analysis, however, also presents a long-term bullish case for a correction. Drawing parallels to historical price patterns observed in the gold market, Brandt suggests that a correction could pave the way for sustained bullishness in the long term. He notes instances where similar chart patterns in gold were followed by renewed growth surges.

然而，布蘭特的分析也提出了長期看漲的修正理由。布蘭特與黃金市場上觀察到的歷史價格模式相比較，認為調整可能為長期持續看漲鋪路。他指出，黃金的類似圖表模式隨後出現了新的成長激增。

By analogy, a price correction in Bitcoin could act as a springboard for a future bull run, purging short-term speculators and attracting long-term investors seeking a lower entry point.

類似地，比特幣的價格調整可以作為未來多頭市場的跳板，清除短期投機者並吸引尋求較低入場點的長期投資者。

It is crucial to emphasize that Brandt's analysis is just one perspective on the market, and it should not be considered the sole determinant of investment decisions. The cryptocurrency market is notoriously volatile, and unforeseen events can significantly influence price movements.

需要強調的是，布蘭特的分析只是市場的觀點，不應被視為投資決策的唯一決定因素。眾所周知，加密貨幣市場波動很大，不可預見的事件可能會嚴重影響價格走勢。

Investors should weigh Brandt's analysis against other market indicators and conduct their own thorough research before making any investment decisions. The cryptocurrency market rewards patience and a tolerance for volatility. As Brandt himself acknowledges, "The data speak for itself," but the future remains uncertain, and it is ultimately up to each individual to decide whether Bitcoin has reached its apex or whether a healthy correction is on the horizon.

投資者應權衡勃蘭特的分析與其他市場指標，並在做出任何投資決定之前進行徹底的研究。加密貨幣市場獎勵耐心和對波動的容忍度。正如布蘭特本人所承認的那樣，“數據不言而喻”，但未來仍然不確定，最終取決於每個人來決定比特幣是否已達到頂峰，或者是否即將出現健康的調整。