著名交易员彼得·勃兰特警告比特币可能出现回调，怀疑比特币上涨势不可挡

资深交易员 Peter Brandt 最近的分析表明，由于加密货币历史价格周期中观察到的“指数衰减”，比特币当前的牛市可能已接近尾声。 Brandt 预测本周期的潜在峰值价格为 72,723 美元，随后回撤至 30,000 美元中间甚至更低。不过，他也将黄金市场模式与黄金市场模式进行了比较，表明调整可能为长期看涨铺平道路。

Peter Brandt Casts Doubts on Bitcoin's Unbounded Surge, Predicts Potential Retracements

彼得·勃兰特对比特币的无限飙升表示怀疑，并预测潜在的回调

Renowned trader Peter Brandt has injected a note of caution into the celebratory atmosphere surrounding Bitcoin's recent gains. In a comprehensive analysis entitled "Does history make a case that Bitcoin has topped?", Brandt casts doubt on the idea that the cryptocurrency's price ascent will continue indefinitely, suggesting it may be approaching the zenith of its current bull run.

著名交易员彼得·勃兰特（Peter Brandt）对围绕比特币近期上涨的庆祝气氛注入了谨慎的态度。在题为“历史是否证明比特币已经见顶？”的综合分析中，布兰特对加密货币价格将无限期持续上涨的观点表示怀疑，表明它可能正在接近当前牛市的顶峰。

Brandt's analysis revolves around the concept of "exponential decay." By scrutinizing Bitcoin's historical performance, he identifies four distinct bull cycles, with the current one marking the fifth. Intriguingly, Brandt observes a concerning trend: each successive cycle has exhibited a diminishing degree of exponential growth. In other words, the price gains have not been as explosive as they were in earlier cycles.

布兰特的分析围绕“指数衰减”的概念。通过审视比特币的历史表现，他确定了四个不同的牛市周期，当前的牛市周期是第五个。有趣的是，勃兰特观察到一个令人担忧的趋势：每个连续的周期都表现出指数增长程度递减的趋势。换句话说，价格上涨并不像早期周期那样具有爆炸性。

This "exponential dampener" poses a potentially bearish outlook. By extrapolating this trend to the current cycle, Brandt arrives at a sobering prediction: a peak price of approximately $72,723, a level that the top cryptocurrency has already touched in recent trading.

这种“指数抑制器”带来了潜在的看跌前景。通过将这一趋势推断到当前周期，Brandt 得出了一个发人深省的预测：峰值价格约为 72,723 美元，这是顶级加密货币在最近的交易中已经触及的水平。

While acknowledging the historical price boosts associated with halving events (predefined reductions in the creation of new Bitcoins), Brandt emphasizes the undeniable force of exponential decay. This, he argues, suggests a 25% probability that Bitcoin may have already hit its peak for this cycle.

布兰特承认与减半事件（新比特币创建的预定减少）相关的历史价格上涨，但强调了指数衰减的不可否认的力量。他认为，这表明比特币有 25% 的可能性已经在本周期达到峰值。

BTCUSD is currently trading at $63.772 (as of the time of writing).

BTCUSD 目前交易价格为 63.772 美元（截至撰写本文时）。

If Brandt's analysis proves accurate, cryptocurrency investors may be in for a bumpy ride. The veteran trader anticipates potential price retracements, with Bitcoin potentially plummeting to the mid-$30,000 range, or even revisiting the 2021 lows.

如果布兰特的分析被证明是准确的，加密货币投资者可能会经历一段坎坷的旅程。这位经验丰富的交易员预计，比特币可能会出现价格回调，跌至 30,000 美元中间的区间，甚至重回 2021 年的低点。

Brandt's analysis, however, also presents a long-term bullish case for a correction. Drawing parallels to historical price patterns observed in the gold market, Brandt suggests that a correction could pave the way for sustained bullishness in the long term. He notes instances where similar chart patterns in gold were followed by renewed growth surges.

然而，布兰特的分析也提出了长期看涨的修正理由。布兰特与黄金市场上观察到的历史价格模式相比较，认为调整可能为长期持续看涨铺平道路。他指出，黄金的类似图表模式随后出现了新的增长激增。

By analogy, a price correction in Bitcoin could act as a springboard for a future bull run, purging short-term speculators and attracting long-term investors seeking a lower entry point.

类似地，比特币的价格调整可以作为未来牛市的跳板，清除短期投机者并吸引寻求较低入场点的长期投资者。

It is crucial to emphasize that Brandt's analysis is just one perspective on the market, and it should not be considered the sole determinant of investment decisions. The cryptocurrency market is notoriously volatile, and unforeseen events can significantly influence price movements.

需要强调的是，布兰特的分析只是市场的一种观点，不应被视为投资决策的唯一决定因素。众所周知，加密货币市场波动很大，不可预见的事件可能会严重影响价格走势。

Investors should weigh Brandt's analysis against other market indicators and conduct their own thorough research before making any investment decisions. The cryptocurrency market rewards patience and a tolerance for volatility. As Brandt himself acknowledges, "The data speak for itself," but the future remains uncertain, and it is ultimately up to each individual to decide whether Bitcoin has reached its apex or whether a healthy correction is on the horizon.

投资者应权衡勃兰特的分析与其他市场指标，并在做出任何投资决定之前进行彻底的研究。加密货币市场奖励耐心和对波动的容忍度。正如布兰特本人承认的那样，“数据不言而喻”，但未来仍然不确定，最终取决于每个人来决定比特币是否已达到顶峰，或者是否即将出现健康的调整。