預計 2025 年比特幣 (BTC) 價格會更高的 3 個理由

隨著比特幣（BTC 2.56%）僅在過去三個月就上漲了 46%，人們很容易認為加密貨幣之王即將喘口氣。

Despite Bitcoin's (BTC 2.56%) 46% gain over the past three months, it might not be slowing down anytime soon. Several tailwinds are converging and gaining strength, making it harder to ignore the possibility of further gains for the king of cryptocurrencies.

儘管比特幣（BTC 2.56%）在過去三個月中上漲了 46%，但它可能不會很快放緩。多種有利因素正在匯聚並增強力量，使得人們更難忽視加密貨幣之王進一步獲利的可能性。

Here are three reasons to expect Bitcoin to continue rising in 2025, so you can invest confidently.

以下三個理由預計比特幣將在 2025 年繼續上漲，因此您可以放心投資。

1. The macroeconomic stars are aligning

1. 宏觀經濟明星齊頭並進

Cryptocurrencies tend to thrive in an environment with ample liquidity flowing through the global financial system.

加密貨幣往往在全球金融體系流動性充足的環境中蓬勃發展。

In this context, you can think of liquidity as the amount of cash pressurizing the pipes of those financial systems, which include traditional financial markets in stocks as well as cryptocurrency markets.

在這種情況下，您可以將流動性視為對這些金融系統管道施加壓力的現金量，其中包括傳統的股票金融市場以及加密貨幣市場。

When there's not much pressure, the smaller and more far-flung pipes -- which correspond to more speculative sectors and investments like cryptocurrencies -- simply don't get much flow from the main line. Consider this: If it's expensive or difficult for investors to acquire, deploy, or borrow capital for investment, they're going to be much more careful about where they try to park it, as the consequences of losing capital are greater. This low-pressure scenario corresponds to periods when interest rates are higher than average, constraining the actions of institutional investors with the most capital and the ability to borrow the most as well.

當壓力不大時，較小且分佈較遠的管道（對應​​於更具投機性的行業和加密貨幣等投資）根本無法從主線獲得太多流量。想想看：如果投資者取得、部署或借用資本進行投資的成本昂貴或困難，他們就會更加謹慎地選擇將資金存放在哪裡，因為損失資本的後果會更大。這種低壓情境對應於利率高於平均的時期，限制了擁有最多資本和借貸能力最多的機構投資者的行動。

On the other hand, when there's so much pressure that water hydrants are bursting due to the excess, such as when interest rates are lower than average, it's a no-brainer that the most speculative corners of the system are saturated too. We aren't there yet.

另一方面，當壓力太大以至於消防栓因超額而爆裂時，例如當利率低於平均水平時，系統中最具投機性的角落也會飽和，這是理所當然的。我們還沒到那兒。

Still, there is likely to be an increasing amount of liquidity in the markets in 2025 compared to the past couple of years, and that's bullish for Bitcoin. It isn't just that the Federal Reserve in the U.S. has been slashing the main interest rate recently. The European Central Bank cut rates in 2024, and is somewhat likely to cut more this year; similarly, China's central bank has signaled that rate cuts are probably in the cards for this year.

儘管如此，與過去幾年相比，2025 年市場流動性可能會增加，這對比特幣有利。不僅僅是美國聯邦儲備委員會最近大幅下調主要利率。歐洲央行將於 2024 年降息，今年可能會進一步降息；同樣，中國央行也暗示今年可能會降息。

In other words, a huge swath of the world's financial industry is going to be entering a period of lower rates, juicing a new period of higher liquidity. And for Bitcoin, that's likely to be a strong catalyst for higher prices.

換句話說，世界金融業的很大一部分將進入一個較低利率的時期，從而進入一個流動性較高的新時期。對於比特幣來說，這可能是價格上漲的強大催化劑。

2. The new administration is unashamedly pro-crypto

2. 新政府毫不掩飾地支持加密貨幣

The cryptocurrency industry hasn't been in good graces with global governments, historically speaking. Many countries, including heavyweights like China, have even banned Bitcoin at various points.

從歷史上看，加密貨幣產業並沒有受到全球政府的青睞。許多國家，包括中國這樣的重量級國家，甚至在不同時期禁止了比特幣。

Now that is changing. In the U.S., the incoming Trump administration has spoken at length about the possibility of creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR).

現在情況正在改變。在美國，即將上任的川普政府詳細討論了建立戰略比特幣儲備（SBR）的可能性。

At the same time, both the new president and vice president have disclosed substantial holdings of cryptocurrencies, and they don't discuss those holdings as though they're a vice. Six or seven years ago, this state of affairs would be nearly unthinkable.

同時，新任總統和副總統都揭露了大量持有的加密貨幣，他們並沒有像對待惡習一樣討論這些持有的資產。六、七年前，這種狀況幾乎是不可想像的。

Although the plans for an SBR are still very much in flux and it may never happen, it's worth appreciating the overt bullishness of an incoming president openly discussing the possibility of buying a huge amount of Bitcoin using public funds. This asset has obviously crossed the chasm spanning speculative investments and tried-and-tested ones, and that's why it will go higher.

儘管 SBR 的計劃仍然在不斷變化，而且可能永遠不會發生，但值得讚賞的是即將上任的總統公開討論使用公共資金購買大量比特幣的可能性的公開樂觀態度。這種資產顯然已經跨越了投機性投資和經過考驗的投資之間的鴻溝，這就是它會走高的原因。

3. The digital gold meme is spreading

3.數位黃金迷因正在傳播

Building on the previous point, the final reason that Bitcoin is probably going to continue to increase in value this year is that it's quickly gaining even more mindshare as so-called digital gold and shedding its past reputation as a speculative dalliance. In fact, the U.S. Treasury referenced the term in one of its presentations in late 2024; even regulators are viewing things through this lens now.

基於前一點，比特幣今年可能繼續升值的最後一個原因是，它作為所謂的數位黃金而迅速贏得了更多的關注，並擺脫了過去作為投機性調情的聲譽。事實上，美國財政部在 2024 年底的一份報告中引用了這個術語；甚至監管機構現在也開始從這個角度來看待事情。

The similarities between Bitcoin and gold are hard to deny. Both require significant capital expenditure on mining equipment as well as substantial and continuous consumption of energy to produce. While it remains to be seen if the cryptocurrency actually retains its purchasing power over time in the fashion that goldbugs claim for the precious metal, the more important fact is that the meme is now widely established.

比特幣和黃金之間的相似之處是難以否認的。兩者都需要大量的採礦設備資本支出以及大量且持續的能源消耗來生產。雖然這種加密貨幣是否真的能像黃金愛好者所聲稱的貴金屬那樣隨著時間的推移保持其購買力還有待觀察，但更重要的事實是，這種文化基因現在已經廣泛確立。

As Bitcoin's image continues to improve, it will become even more accepted as an investment, and perhaps as a medium of exchange as well. There's no way that either of those developments will be negative, to say the least.

隨著比特幣形象的不斷改善，它作為一種投資，或許也作為一種交換媒介，將變得更加被接受。至少可以說，這兩種發展都不可能是負面的。