预计 2025 年比特币 (BTC) 价格会更高的 3 个理由

随着比特币（BTC 2.56%）仅在过去三个月就上涨了 46%，人们很容易认为加密货币之王即将喘口气。

Despite Bitcoin's (BTC 2.56%) 46% gain over the past three months, it might not be slowing down anytime soon. Several tailwinds are converging and gaining strength, making it harder to ignore the possibility of further gains for the king of cryptocurrencies.

尽管比特币（BTC 2.56%）在过去三个月里上涨了 46%，但它可能不会很快放缓。多种有利因素正在汇聚并增强力量，使得人们更难忽视加密货币之王进一步获利的可能性。

Here are three reasons to expect Bitcoin to continue rising in 2025, so you can invest confidently.

以下三个理由预计比特币将在 2025 年继续上涨，因此您可以放心投资。

1. The macroeconomic stars are aligning

1. 宏观经济明星正在齐头并进

Cryptocurrencies tend to thrive in an environment with ample liquidity flowing through the global financial system.

加密货币往往在全球金融体系流动性充足的环境中蓬勃发展。

In this context, you can think of liquidity as the amount of cash pressurizing the pipes of those financial systems, which include traditional financial markets in stocks as well as cryptocurrency markets.

在这种情况下，您可以将流动性视为对这些金融系统管道施加压力的现金量，其中包括传统的股票金融市场以及加密货币市场。

When there's not much pressure, the smaller and more far-flung pipes -- which correspond to more speculative sectors and investments like cryptocurrencies -- simply don't get much flow from the main line. Consider this: If it's expensive or difficult for investors to acquire, deploy, or borrow capital for investment, they're going to be much more careful about where they try to park it, as the consequences of losing capital are greater. This low-pressure scenario corresponds to periods when interest rates are higher than average, constraining the actions of institutional investors with the most capital and the ability to borrow the most as well.

当压力不大时，较小且分布较远的管道（对应于更具投机性的行业和加密货币等投资）根本无法从主线获得太多流量。考虑一下：如果投资者获取、部署或借用资本进行投资的成本昂贵或困难，他们就会更加谨慎地选择将资金存放在哪里，因为损失资本的后果会更大。这种低压情景对应于利率高于平均水平的时期，限制了拥有最多资本和借贷能力最多的机构投资者的行动。

On the other hand, when there's so much pressure that water hydrants are bursting due to the excess, such as when interest rates are lower than average, it's a no-brainer that the most speculative corners of the system are saturated too. We aren't there yet.

另一方面，当压力太大以至于消防栓因超额而爆裂时，例如当利率低于平均水平时，系统中最具投机性的角落也会饱和，这是理所当然的。我们还没有到那儿。

Still, there is likely to be an increasing amount of liquidity in the markets in 2025 compared to the past couple of years, and that's bullish for Bitcoin. It isn't just that the Federal Reserve in the U.S. has been slashing the main interest rate recently. The European Central Bank cut rates in 2024, and is somewhat likely to cut more this year; similarly, China's central bank has signaled that rate cuts are probably in the cards for this year.

尽管如此，与过去几年相比，2025 年市场流动性可能会增加，这对比特币有利。不仅仅是美国联邦储备委员会最近大幅下调主要利率。欧洲央行将于 2024 年降息，今年可能会进一步降息；同样，中国央行也暗示今年可能会降息。

In other words, a huge swath of the world's financial industry is going to be entering a period of lower rates, juicing a new period of higher liquidity. And for Bitcoin, that's likely to be a strong catalyst for higher prices.

换句话说，世界金融业的很大一部分将进入一个较低利率的时期，从而进入一个流动性较高的新时期。对于比特币来说，这可能是价格上涨的强大催化剂。

2. The new administration is unashamedly pro-crypto

2. 新政府毫不掩饰地支持加密货币

The cryptocurrency industry hasn't been in good graces with global governments, historically speaking. Many countries, including heavyweights like China, have even banned Bitcoin at various points.

从历史上看，加密货币行业并没有受到全球政府的青睐。许多国家，包括中国这样的重量级国家，甚至在不同时期禁止了比特币。

Now that is changing. In the U.S., the incoming Trump administration has spoken at length about the possibility of creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR).

现在情况正在改变。在美国，即将上任的特朗普政府详细讨论了建立战略比特币储备（SBR）的可能性。

At the same time, both the new president and vice president have disclosed substantial holdings of cryptocurrencies, and they don't discuss those holdings as though they're a vice. Six or seven years ago, this state of affairs would be nearly unthinkable.

与此同时，新任总统和副总统都披露了大量持有的加密货币，他们并没有像对待恶习一样讨论这些持有的资产。六七年前，这种状况几乎是不可想象的。

Although the plans for an SBR are still very much in flux and it may never happen, it's worth appreciating the overt bullishness of an incoming president openly discussing the possibility of buying a huge amount of Bitcoin using public funds. This asset has obviously crossed the chasm spanning speculative investments and tried-and-tested ones, and that's why it will go higher.

尽管 SBR 的计划仍然在不断变化，而且可能永远不会发生，但值得赞赏的是即将上任的总统公开讨论使用公共资金购买大量比特币的可能性的公开乐观态度。这种资产显然已经跨越了投机性投资和经过考验的投资之间的鸿沟，这就是它会走高的原因。

3. The digital gold meme is spreading

3.数字黄金模因正在传播

Building on the previous point, the final reason that Bitcoin is probably going to continue to increase in value this year is that it's quickly gaining even more mindshare as so-called digital gold and shedding its past reputation as a speculative dalliance. In fact, the U.S. Treasury referenced the term in one of its presentations in late 2024; even regulators are viewing things through this lens now.

基于前一点，比特币今年可能继续升值的最后一个原因是，它作为所谓的数字黄金而迅速赢得了更多的关注，并摆脱了过去作为投机性调情的声誉。事实上，美国财政部在 2024 年底的一份报告中引用了该术语；甚至监管机构现在也开始从这个角度来看待事情。

The similarities between Bitcoin and gold are hard to deny. Both require significant capital expenditure on mining equipment as well as substantial and continuous consumption of energy to produce. While it remains to be seen if the cryptocurrency actually retains its purchasing power over time in the fashion that goldbugs claim for the precious metal, the more important fact is that the meme is now widely established.

比特币和黄金之间的相似之处是难以否认的。两者都需要大量的采矿设备资本支出以及大量且持续的能源消耗来生产。虽然这种加密货币是否真的能像黄金爱好者所声称的贵金属那样随着时间的推移保持其购买力还有待观察，但更重要的事实是，这种文化基因现在已经广泛确立。

As Bitcoin's image continues to improve, it will become even more accepted as an investment, and perhaps as a medium of exchange as well. There's no way that either of those developments will be negative, to say the least.

随着比特币形象的不断改善，它作为一种投资，或许也作为一种交换媒介，将变得更加被接受。至少可以说，这两种发展都不可能是负面的。