雷·達利奧（Ray Dalio）在發出警報 - 不僅僅是潛在的衰退

他的擔憂不僅僅是市場波動。他們指出了更廣泛的結構脆弱性。

Ray Dalio, founder of investment giant Bridgewater, is sounding the alarm — not just about a potential recession, but about a deeper, systemic breakdown of the global economic and political order, according to an interview with CNBC on Sunday.

根據周日對CNBC的採訪，投資巨頭布里奇沃特（Bridgewater）的創始人雷·達利奧（Ray Dalio）發出了警報，這不僅僅是潛在的衰退，而且還涉及全球經濟和政治秩序的更深層，系統的細分。

While his concerns aren't new, they take on particular urgency as markets navigate a perfect storm of risks, including rising inflation, interest rates and trade war uncertainty. Interestingly, bitcoin (BTC) has been showing resilience amidst the chaos. The digital asset has broken a three-month downtrend and is approaching $85,000, signaling it may be stepping into a role as a potential alternative safe haven.

儘管他的擔憂並不是什麼新鮮事，但由於市場駕駛一場完美的風險風暴，包括通貨膨脹，利率和貿易戰爭不確定性，他們特別緊迫。有趣的是，比特幣（BTC）在混亂中表現出彈性。數字資產已經打破了三個月的下降趨勢，接近85,000美元，這表明它可能成為潛在的替代避風港的角色。

Mixed signals continue from the White House on tariffs, adding to the growing uncertainty weighing on global markets.

白宮的關稅仍在繼續，混合信號持續了，這增加了對全球市場的不確定性。

Also, markets continue to be extremely volatile especially over the past two weeks as Trump’s tariff policies take hold and have flummoxed economists.

同樣，由於特朗普的關稅政策持續下去並且經濟學家陷入困境，因此市場繼續非常動盪。

But Dalio is known for taking a long-view perspective on markets and his thoughts provide insight into how a top economist views the pressing issues facing the country and markets.

但是，達利奧（Dalio）以對市場的長期觀點的看法而聞名，他的思想為高級經濟學家如何看待如何看待國家和市場面臨的緊迫問題提供了洞察力。

Dalio is particularly focused on the mounting U.S. debt and deficit, which he says must be brought down to 3% of GDP. He warns that the imbalance between debt supply and investor demand could cause serious dislocations, according to CNBC.

達利奧（Dalio）特別關注美國債務和赤字，他說必須將其降至GDP的3％。 CNBC稱，他警告說，債務供應和投資者需求之間的不平衡可能導致嚴重的脫位。

That's already playing out in the bond market, where U.S. Treasury yields are climbing. The 10-year sits just under 4.5%, while the 30-year is hovering just below 5%. These elevated yields are rattling markets and could force the Federal Reserve to step in in order to calm markets.

這已經在債券市場上發揮了作用，美國財政收益率正在攀升。 10年的時間不到4.5％，而30年的時間卻徘徊在5％以下。這些提高的收益率正在嘎嘎作響，並可能迫使美聯儲介入以使市場平息。

But Dalio also warns that tariff uncertainty is feeding into broader macro instability. The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, has now fallen below 100 for the first time in years — a potential sign of capital flight from the country. He is calling for a comprehensive trade deal with China and a currency adjustment to strengthen the yuan, aiming to stabilize a system that's looking increasingly fragile, according to the report.

但是達利奧還警告說，關稅不確定性正在助長更廣泛的宏觀不穩定。 DXY指數衡量的美元現在已經在數年中首次跌至100以下，這是該國資本飛行的潛在跡象。該報告稱，他呼籲與中國達成全面的貿易協定，並進行貨幣調整以加強人民幣，旨在穩定看起來越來越脆弱的系統。

In a sobering comparison, Dalio likens today's risks to those seen during the U.S. exit from the gold standard in 1971 and the global financial crisis in 2008, according to the report. Both were inflection points that reshaped the financial system.

根據該報告，達利奧（Dalio）的風險將當今的風險比作美國在1971年退出黃金標準和2008年全球金融危機的風險。兩者都是重塑金融體系的拐點。

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