雷·达利奥（Ray Dalio）在发出警报 - 不仅仅是潜在的衰退

他的担忧不仅仅是市场波动。他们指出了更广泛的结构脆弱性。

Ray Dalio, founder of investment giant Bridgewater, is sounding the alarm — not just about a potential recession, but about a deeper, systemic breakdown of the global economic and political order, according to an interview with CNBC on Sunday.

根据周日对CNBC的采访，投资巨头布里奇沃特（Bridgewater）的创始人雷·达利奥（Ray Dalio）发出了警报，这不仅仅是潜在的衰退，而且还涉及全球经济和政治秩序的更深层，系统的细分。

While his concerns aren't new, they take on particular urgency as markets navigate a perfect storm of risks, including rising inflation, interest rates and trade war uncertainty. Interestingly, bitcoin (BTC) has been showing resilience amidst the chaos. The digital asset has broken a three-month downtrend and is approaching $85,000, signaling it may be stepping into a role as a potential alternative safe haven.

尽管他的担忧并不是什么新鲜事，但由于市场驾驶一场完美的风险风暴，包括通货膨胀，利率和贸易战争不确定性，他们特别紧迫。有趣的是，比特币（BTC）在混乱中表现出弹性。数字资产已经打破了三个月的下降趋势，接近85,000美元，这表明它可能成为潜在的替代避风港的角色。

Mixed signals continue from the White House on tariffs, adding to the growing uncertainty weighing on global markets.

白宫的关税仍在继续，混合信号持续了，这增加了对全球市场的不确定性。

Also, markets continue to be extremely volatile especially over the past two weeks as Trump’s tariff policies take hold and have flummoxed economists.

同样，由于特朗普的关税政策持续下去并且经济学家陷入困境，因此市场继续非常动荡。

But Dalio is known for taking a long-view perspective on markets and his thoughts provide insight into how a top economist views the pressing issues facing the country and markets.

但是，达利奥（Dalio）以对市场的长期观点的看法而闻名，他的思想为高级经济学家如何看待如何看待国家和市场面临的紧迫问题提供了洞察力。

Dalio is particularly focused on the mounting U.S. debt and deficit, which he says must be brought down to 3% of GDP. He warns that the imbalance between debt supply and investor demand could cause serious dislocations, according to CNBC.

达利奥（Dalio）特别关注美国债务和赤字，他说必须将其降至GDP的3％。 CNBC称，他警告说，债务供应和投资者需求之间的不平衡可能导致严重的脱位。

That's already playing out in the bond market, where U.S. Treasury yields are climbing. The 10-year sits just under 4.5%, while the 30-year is hovering just below 5%. These elevated yields are rattling markets and could force the Federal Reserve to step in in order to calm markets.

这已经在债券市场上发挥了作用，美国财政收益率正在攀升。 10年的时间不到4.5％，而30年的时间却徘徊在5％以下。这些提高的收益率正在嘎嘎作响，并可能迫使美联储介入以使市场平息。

But Dalio also warns that tariff uncertainty is feeding into broader macro instability. The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, has now fallen below 100 for the first time in years — a potential sign of capital flight from the country. He is calling for a comprehensive trade deal with China and a currency adjustment to strengthen the yuan, aiming to stabilize a system that's looking increasingly fragile, according to the report.

但是达利奥还警告说，关税不确定性正在助长更广泛的宏观不稳定。 DXY指数衡量的美元现在已经在数年中首次跌至100以下，这是该国资本飞行的潜在迹象。该报告称，他呼吁与中国达成全面的贸易协定，并进行货币调整以加强人民币，旨在稳定看起来越来越脆弱的系统。

In a sobering comparison, Dalio likens today's risks to those seen during the U.S. exit from the gold standard in 1971 and the global financial crisis in 2008, according to the report. Both were inflection points that reshaped the financial system.

根据该报告，达利奥（Dalio）的风险将当今的风险比作美国在1971年退出黄金标准和2008年全球金融危机的风险。两者都是重塑金融体系的拐点。

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