比特幣（BTC）面臨著重要的測試，因為全球市場保持波動，宏觀經濟緊張

隨著全球市場保持波動，宏觀經濟緊張局勢升級，比特幣正面臨重大測試。經過數週的價格波動和不確定性，BTC的交易高於85,000美元，這是公牛設法捍衛的心理和技術門檻。

Bitcoin is poised for a critical test as global markets navigate macroeconomic headwinds and political tensions. After weeks of price swings and uncertainty, BTC is trading above the $85,000 level. This psychological and technical threshold, which bulls have managed to defend, marks a potential turning point.

隨著全球市場導致宏觀經濟的逆風和政治緊張局勢，比特幣有望進行重大測試。經過數週的價格波動和不確定性，BTC的交易高於85,000美元。公牛設法捍衛的這種心理和技術閾值標誌著潛在的轉折點。

As momentum appears to be building, the real test lies ahead: reclaiming the $90,000 mark to fully confirm a recovery and shift broader sentiment.

隨著動量似乎正在建立，真正的測試就在未來：收回90,000美元的大關以完全確認恢復並轉移更廣泛的情緒。

CryptoQuant's insights highlight that despite the recent bounce, the market environment is still fragile. According to their latest data, only 24% of the circulating Bitcoin supply is currently in an unrealized loss.

CryptoQuant的見解強調，儘管最近反彈，市場環境仍然脆弱。根據他們的最新數據，目前只有24％的循環比特幣供應未實現損失。

This is a relatively low figure when compared to previous major corrections, Historical trends suggest that such a level is more commonly associated with early-stage pullbacks or deep capitulation phases.

與以前的重大校正相比，這是一個相對較低的數字，歷史趨勢表明，這種水平通常與早期回調或深層投降階段有關。

The chart above, from CryptoQuant, shows the Bitcoin unrealized loss component. The grey band highlights the historical bottom zone, where the bulk of the unrealized loss is currently located. This pattern is often observed during periods of strong resilience, as long-term holders tend to absorb a significant portion of the correction.

上面的圖表來自加密量，顯示了比特幣未實現的損失部分。灰色樂隊突出了歷史底部區域，目前未實現的損失大部分位置。由於長期持有人傾向於吸收校正的很大一部分。

However, such phases are also known to precede extended periods of sideways consolidation or further volatility before a sustained rally can take hold.

但是，在橫向鞏固的延長或進一步的波動率之前，也已知此類階段在持續集會之前。

While bulls are stepping in, the broader market hasn’t fully flushed out excess risk, leaving room for additional downside if sentiment turns again. As the geopolitical climate remains tense and the macroeconomic outlook uncertain, Bitcoin's next move will be crucial in determining whether this is the start of a sustained recovery or simply a temporary relief rally within a larger correction.

當公牛介入時，更廣闊的市場並沒有完全消除多餘的風險，如果情緒再次轉向，則為額外的下跌空間留出了空間。由於地緣政治氣候保持緊張和宏觀經濟的前景不確定，比特幣的下一步行動對於確定這是持續恢復的開始還是臨時救濟在更大的校正中至關重要。

Bitcoin Price Steadies But Market Risk Remains Elevated

比特幣價格穩定，但市場風險仍然升高

Global tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty continue to drive Bitcoin price behavior, with recent action hinting at a potential shift in momentum.

全球緊張局勢和宏觀經濟不確定性繼續推動比特幣價格行為，最近的行動暗示了動量的潛在轉變。

As inflation begins to trend lower and the U.S. stock market shows signs of fragility, many analysts are expecting the Federal Reserve may eventually be forced to lower interest rates to prevent a deeper economic crisis. However, with trade negotiations between the U.S. and China evolving quickly and the timeline for any monetary easing remains unclear.

隨著通貨膨脹開始趨勢趨勢，美國股市表現出脆弱性的跡象，許多分析師期望美聯儲最終可能會被迫降低利率，以防止更深層的經濟危機。但是，隨著美國和中國之間的貿易談判迅速發展，任何輕鬆貨幣的時間表尚不清楚。

Despite Bitcoin’s recent bounce above $85,000, on-chain data from CryptoQuant highlights that market risk is far from being completely flushed out.

儘管比特幣最近的反彈超過了85,000美元，但來自加密素養的鍊鍊數據表明，市場風險遠未被完全沖洗掉。

While BTC has undergone a notable correction—dropping over 30% from its all-time highs—only 24% of the circulating supply is currently in an unrealized loss.

儘管BTC經過了顯著的糾正（比其歷史最高高點，超過30％）目前只有24％的循環供應損失。

This is historically a low level, which is usually seen during early-stage corrections, not during the deepest phases of capitulation. For instance, during the 2015 correction, Bitcoin entered a bear market with nearly 40% of the supply in unrealized loss. In contrast, during the 2018 correction, the lower band of the Bollinger Bands was tested multiple times with around 60% of the supply in unrealized loss.

從歷史上看，這通常是一個低水平，通常在早期校正期間，而不是在壓制的最深階段。例如，在2015年更正期間，比特幣進入了一個熊市，近40％的損失損失。相比之下，在2018年校正期間，對布林帶的下部頻帶進行了多次測試，約有60％的供應量未實現損失。

The unrealized loss component is currently largely concentrated within the historical bottom zone, as highlighted by the grey band in the chart above. This pattern is often a reflection of long-term holders (LTHs) absorbing a substantial portion of the correction. Such behavior is typically a signal of resilience.

未實現的損失部分目前主要集中在歷史底部區域內，正如上圖中的灰色頻段所強調的那樣。這種模式通常反映了吸收大部分校正的長期持有人（LTHS）。這種行為通常是彈性的信號。

However, it also serves as a note of caution. Historical trends suggest that such phases tend to precede extended periods of sideways consolidation or further price volatility before a sustained rally can take hold.

但是，這也是謹慎的注意。歷史趨勢表明，此類階段傾向於在橫向整合的長時間之前或在持續集會持續的情況下進行進一步的價格波動。

In summary, while bullish momentum is building, the market remains vulnerable. A sustained move higher will likely require improved macro clarity and confirmation of policy shifts before Bitcoin can fully break into a renewed uptrend.

總而言之，儘管看漲勢頭正在建立，但市場仍然很脆弱。持續的移動更高可能需要提高宏觀清晰度，並確認比特幣能夠完全闖入重新升級。

Technical Details: Price Holds Above Key Indicators

技術詳細信息：價格高於關鍵指標

Bitcoin is currently trading at $85,500 after successfully pushing above the 4-hour 200 MA and EMA, both positioned around the $84,000 level. This technical breakout is a positive sign for bulls, who now need to maintain price action above these indicators to confirm a shift in short-term momentum and initiate a broader recovery phase.

在成功推出4小時200 MA和EMA之後，比特幣目前的交易價格為85,500美元，兩者均位置約為84,000美元。這種技術突破是公牛隊的積極信號，現在他需要維持價格上的價格行動，以確認短期勢頭的轉變並啟動更廣泛的恢復階段。

Holding above the $84K zone is crucial, as it signals strength and buyer commitment at this level. If bulls can continue to defend this range and reclaim the psychological $90,000 level, Bitcoin could quickly move into higher supply zones, potentially targeting a new local high and breaking the current consolidation pattern.

在$ 84K的區域上保持持有至關重要，因為它標誌著這一水平的強度和買家的承諾。如果公牛可以繼續捍衛這一範圍並恢復心理$ 90,000的水平，那麼比特幣可以迅速進入更高的供應區域，可能針對新的當地高點並打破當前的合併模式。

However, despite this positive momentum, risks remain. If BTC fails to maintain support above the $84K zone and dips below $81,000, it could trigger renewed selling pressure. Such a breakdown would likely result in a sharp drop toward the $75,000 support region, a level closely watched by analysts for its historical significance.

但是，儘管有積極的勢頭，但仍有風險。如果BTC無法維持高於$ 84K的區域的支持，並且下降到81,000美元以下，則可能會觸發更新的銷售壓力。這樣的細分可能會導致邁向75,000美元的支持區域，這一水平是由分析師的歷史意義密切關注的。

For now, Bitcoin’s price structure remains cautiously optimistic. Sustained buying interest and favorable macro conditions will be required to support further gains and confirm the beginning of a lasting recovery.

就目前而言，比特幣的價格結構仍然謹慎樂觀。需要持續購買利息和有利的宏觀條件來支持進一步的收益並確認持久恢復的開始。