比特币（BTC）面临着重要的测试，因为全球市场保持波动，宏观经济紧张

随着全球市场保持波动，宏观经济紧张局势升级，比特币正面临重大测试。经过数周的价格波动和不确定性，BTC的交易高于85,000美元，这是公牛设法捍卫的心理和技术门槛。

Bitcoin is poised for a critical test as global markets navigate macroeconomic headwinds and political tensions. After weeks of price swings and uncertainty, BTC is trading above the $85,000 level. This psychological and technical threshold, which bulls have managed to defend, marks a potential turning point.

随着全球市场导致宏观经济的逆风和政治紧张局势，比特币有望进行重大测试。经过数周的价格波动和不确定性，BTC的交易高于85,000美元。公牛设法捍卫的这种心理和技术阈值标志着潜在的转折点。

As momentum appears to be building, the real test lies ahead: reclaiming the $90,000 mark to fully confirm a recovery and shift broader sentiment.

随着动量似乎正在建立，真正的测试就在未来：收回90,000美元的大关以完全确认恢复并转移更广泛的情绪。

CryptoQuant's insights highlight that despite the recent bounce, the market environment is still fragile. According to their latest data, only 24% of the circulating Bitcoin supply is currently in an unrealized loss.

CryptoQuant的见解强调，尽管最近反弹，市场环境仍然脆弱。根据他们的最新数据，目前只有24％的循环比特币供应未实现损失。

This is a relatively low figure when compared to previous major corrections, Historical trends suggest that such a level is more commonly associated with early-stage pullbacks or deep capitulation phases.

与以前的重大校正相比，这是一个相对较低的数字，历史趋势表明，这种水平通常与早期回调或深层投降阶段有关。

The chart above, from CryptoQuant, shows the Bitcoin unrealized loss component. The grey band highlights the historical bottom zone, where the bulk of the unrealized loss is currently located. This pattern is often observed during periods of strong resilience, as long-term holders tend to absorb a significant portion of the correction.

上面的图表来自加密量，显示了比特币未实现的损失部分。灰色乐队突出了历史底部区域，目前未实现的损失大部分位置。由于长期持有人倾向于吸收校正的很大一部分。

However, such phases are also known to precede extended periods of sideways consolidation or further volatility before a sustained rally can take hold.

但是，在横向巩固的延长或进一步的波动率之前，也已知此类阶段在持续集会之前。

While bulls are stepping in, the broader market hasn’t fully flushed out excess risk, leaving room for additional downside if sentiment turns again. As the geopolitical climate remains tense and the macroeconomic outlook uncertain, Bitcoin's next move will be crucial in determining whether this is the start of a sustained recovery or simply a temporary relief rally within a larger correction.

当公牛介入时，更广阔的市场并没有完全消除多余的风险，如果情绪再次转向，则为额外的下跌空间留出了空间。由于地缘政治气候保持紧张和宏观经济的前景不确定，比特币的下一步行动对于确定这是持续恢复的开始还是临时救济在更大的校正中至关重要。

Bitcoin Price Steadies But Market Risk Remains Elevated

比特币价格稳定，但市场风险仍然升高

Global tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty continue to drive Bitcoin price behavior, with recent action hinting at a potential shift in momentum.

全球紧张局势和宏观经济不确定性继续推动比特币价格行为，最近的行动暗示了动量的潜在转变。

As inflation begins to trend lower and the U.S. stock market shows signs of fragility, many analysts are expecting the Federal Reserve may eventually be forced to lower interest rates to prevent a deeper economic crisis. However, with trade negotiations between the U.S. and China evolving quickly and the timeline for any monetary easing remains unclear.

随着通货膨胀开始趋势趋势，美国股市表现出脆弱性的迹象，许多分析师期望美联储最终可能会被迫降低利率，以防止更深层的经济危机。但是，随着美国和中国之间的贸易谈判迅速发展，任何轻松货币的时间表尚不清楚。

Despite Bitcoin’s recent bounce above $85,000, on-chain data from CryptoQuant highlights that market risk is far from being completely flushed out.

尽管比特币最近的反弹超过了85,000美元，但来自加密素养的链链数据表明，市场风险远未被完全冲洗掉。

While BTC has undergone a notable correction—dropping over 30% from its all-time highs—only 24% of the circulating supply is currently in an unrealized loss.

尽管BTC经过了显着的纠正（比其历史最高高点，超过30％）目前只有24％的循环供应损失。

This is historically a low level, which is usually seen during early-stage corrections, not during the deepest phases of capitulation. For instance, during the 2015 correction, Bitcoin entered a bear market with nearly 40% of the supply in unrealized loss. In contrast, during the 2018 correction, the lower band of the Bollinger Bands was tested multiple times with around 60% of the supply in unrealized loss.

从历史上看，这通常是一个低水平，通常在早期校正期间，而不是在压制的最深阶段。例如，在2015年更正期间，比特币进入了一个熊市，近40％的损失损失。相比之下，在2018年校正期间，对布林带的下部频带进行了多次测试，约有60％的供应量未实现损失。

The unrealized loss component is currently largely concentrated within the historical bottom zone, as highlighted by the grey band in the chart above. This pattern is often a reflection of long-term holders (LTHs) absorbing a substantial portion of the correction. Such behavior is typically a signal of resilience.

未实现的损失部分目前主要集中在历史底部区域内，正如上图中的灰色频段所强调的那样。这种模式通常反映了吸收大部分校正的长期持有人（LTHS）。这种行为通常是弹性的信号。

However, it also serves as a note of caution. Historical trends suggest that such phases tend to precede extended periods of sideways consolidation or further price volatility before a sustained rally can take hold.

但是，这也是谨慎的注意。历史趋势表明，此类阶段倾向于在横向整合的长时间之前或在持续集会持续的情况下进行进一步的价格波动。

In summary, while bullish momentum is building, the market remains vulnerable. A sustained move higher will likely require improved macro clarity and confirmation of policy shifts before Bitcoin can fully break into a renewed uptrend.

总而言之，尽管看涨势头正在建立，但市场仍然很脆弱。持续的移动更高可能需要提高宏观清晰度，并确认比特币能够完全闯入重新升级。

Technical Details: Price Holds Above Key Indicators

技术详细信息：价格高于关键指标

Bitcoin is currently trading at $85,500 after successfully pushing above the 4-hour 200 MA and EMA, both positioned around the $84,000 level. This technical breakout is a positive sign for bulls, who now need to maintain price action above these indicators to confirm a shift in short-term momentum and initiate a broader recovery phase.

在成功推出4小时200 MA和EMA之后，比特币目前的交易价格为85,500美元，两者均位置约为84,000美元。这种技术突破是公牛队的积极信号，现在他需要维持价格上的价格行动，以确认短期势头的转变并启动更广泛的恢复阶段。

Holding above the $84K zone is crucial, as it signals strength and buyer commitment at this level. If bulls can continue to defend this range and reclaim the psychological $90,000 level, Bitcoin could quickly move into higher supply zones, potentially targeting a new local high and breaking the current consolidation pattern.

在$ 84K的区域上保持持有至关重要，因为它标志着这一水平的强度和买家的承诺。如果公牛可以继续捍卫这一范围并恢复心理$ 90,000的水平，那么比特币可以迅速进入更高的供应区域，可能针对新的当地高点并打破当前的合并模式。

However, despite this positive momentum, risks remain. If BTC fails to maintain support above the $84K zone and dips below $81,000, it could trigger renewed selling pressure. Such a breakdown would likely result in a sharp drop toward the $75,000 support region, a level closely watched by analysts for its historical significance.

但是，尽管有积极的势头，但仍有风险。如果BTC无法维持高于$ 84K的区域的支持，并且下降到81,000美元以下，则可能会触发更新的销售压力。这样的细分可能会导致迈向75,000美元的支持区域，这一水平是由分析师的历史意义密切关注的。

For now, Bitcoin’s price structure remains cautiously optimistic. Sustained buying interest and favorable macro conditions will be required to support further gains and confirm the beginning of a lasting recovery.

就目前而言，比特币的价格结构仍然谨慎乐观。需要持续购买利息和有利的宏观条件来支持进一步的收益并确认持久恢复的开始。