量子運算和比特幣的未來

量子運算的最新進展重新引發了有關這些發展對比特幣和其他加密貨幣構成潛在威脅的討論。

Recent advances in quantum computing have sparked discussions about the potential threat these developments pose to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The introduction of Google’s Willow quantum chip, which is known for its ability to reduce errors as more qubits are added, has heightened concerns regarding the future viability of Bitcoin’s cryptographic security.

量子運算的最新進展引發了有關這些發展對比特幣和其他加密貨幣構成潛在威脅的討論。 Google的 Willow 量子晶片以其隨著更多量子位元的添加而減少錯誤的能力而聞名，它的推出加劇了人們對比特幣加密安全未來可行性的擔憂。

The primary fear is that a sufficiently advanced quantum computer could potentially compromise the cryptographic algorithms that safeguard Bitcoin, thus rendering the system vulnerable and undermining its value. Such capabilities could enable attacks like a 51% network threat or easier access to private keys associated with Bitcoin addresses.

主要的擔憂是，足夠先進的量子電腦可能會破壞保護比特幣的加密演算法，從而使系統變得脆弱並削弱其價值。此類功能可能會引發諸如 51% 網路威脅之類的攻擊，或更容易存取與比特幣地址相關的私鑰。

Longtime Bitcoin researcher Ethan Heilman emphasizes the ongoing challenge of safeguarding Bitcoin’s cryptographic security against quantum computing and other emerging threats. He highlights the need for adaptability over long timescales and the importance of evolving cryptographic solutions to protect funds over decades or even centuries.

長期比特幣研究員 Ethan Heilman 強調了保護比特幣加密安全免受量子計算和其他新興威脅的持續挑戰。他強調了長期適應性的必要性，以及不斷發展的加密解決方案以保護數十年甚至數百年資金的重要性。

However, it’s crucial to note that the current threat level is being exaggerated. Google’s Willow, despite being a significant advancement, does not currently possess the capacity to break the cryptographic barriers protecting Bitcoin.

然而，值得注意的是，當前的威脅等級被誇大了。 Google 的 Willow 儘管取得了重大進步，但目前還不具備打破保護比特幣的加密障礙的能力。

A recent research study from Universal Quantum suggests that a machine with 13 million qubits would be necessary to crack a Bitcoin private key within 24 hours, whereas Willow boasts only 105 qubits. Even Google acknowledges that Willow cannot currently threaten modern cryptography.

Universal Quantum 最近的一項研究表明，需要一台擁有 1300 萬個量子位元的機器才能在 24 小時內破解比特幣私鑰，而 Willow 僅擁有 105 個量子位元。甚至谷歌也承認 Willow 目前無法威脅現代密碼學。

Similarly, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang speculates that “very useful quantum computers” remain a distant prospect, possibly two decades away.

同樣，英偉達執行長黃仁勳推測，「非常有用的量子電腦」仍然是一個遙遠的前景，可能需要二十年的時間。

In discussions on platforms like ARK Invest’s Bitcoin Brainstorm podcast, experts like Blockstream CEO Adam Back have downplayed the immediacy of the quantum threat, suggesting that the timeline for when quantum computing becomes a realistic threat spans far into the future—potentially not within our lifetimes. Some estimates suggest that quantum computing might not challenge Bitcoin’s cryptography until the 2030s.

在 ARK Invest 的比特幣腦力激盪播客等平台上的討論中，Blockstream 執行長 Adam Back 等專家淡化了量子威脅的緊迫性，表明量子運算成為現實威脅的時間跨度很遠，可能不是在我們有生之年。一些估計表明，量子計算可能要到 2030 年代才能挑戰比特幣的密碼學。

As a precautionary measure, the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST) has advised transitioning to new cryptographic systems by 2035 to mitigate forward-secrecy risks against future quantum threats.

作為預防措施，美國國家標準與技術研究所 (NIST) 建議到 2035 年過渡到新的加密系統，以減輕未來量子威脅的前向保密風險。

Interestingly, most Bitcoin wallets are currently shielded from quantum attacks, as approximately 75% of them currently employ address types that are not susceptible to such risks.

有趣的是，大多數比特幣錢包目前都免受量子攻擊，因為其中大約 75% 目前採用不易受到此類風險影響的地址類型。

Nonetheless, continuous development and proposed upgrades, such as the draft Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP) known as QuBit, aim to bolster Bitcoin’s defenses against potential quantum threats.

儘管如此，持續的開發和擬議的升級，例如被稱為 QuBit 的比特幣改進提案（BIP）草案，旨在增強比特幣對潛在量子威脅的防禦能力。

The QuBit proposal introduces Pay to Quantum Resistant Hash (P2QRH) addresses featuring quantum-resistant signature schemes, promoting adoption through economic incentives.

QuBit 提案引入了以抗量子簽章方案為特色的支付抗量子哈希 (P2QRH) 位址，透過經濟激勵措施促進採用。

Other potential solutions include the use of STARKs, a ZK proof technology, which provides additional privacy and scalability features, although implementation within Bitcoin presents challenges given the scalability concerns associated with larger quantum-resistant transactions.

其他潛在的解決方案包括使用STARK，這是一種ZK 證明技術，它提供了額外的隱私和可擴展性功能，儘管考慮到與較大的抗量子交易相關的可擴展性問題，在比特幣中實施會帶來挑戰。

As quantum computing continues to develop, the Bitcoin community remains

隨著量子運算的不斷發展，比特幣社群仍然存在