量子计算和比特币的未来

量子计算的最新进展重新引发了有关这些发展对比特币和其他加密货币构成潜在威胁的讨论。

Recent advances in quantum computing have sparked discussions about the potential threat these developments pose to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The introduction of Google’s Willow quantum chip, which is known for its ability to reduce errors as more qubits are added, has heightened concerns regarding the future viability of Bitcoin’s cryptographic security.

量子计算的最新进展引发了有关这些发展对比特币和其他加密货币构成潜在威胁的讨论。谷歌的 Willow 量子芯片以其随着更多量子位的添加而减少错误的能力而闻名，它的推出加剧了人们对比特币加密安全未来可行性的担忧。

The primary fear is that a sufficiently advanced quantum computer could potentially compromise the cryptographic algorithms that safeguard Bitcoin, thus rendering the system vulnerable and undermining its value. Such capabilities could enable attacks like a 51% network threat or easier access to private keys associated with Bitcoin addresses.

主要担心的是，足够先进的量子计算机可能会破坏保护比特币的加密算法，从而使系统变得脆弱并削弱其价值。此类功能可能会引发诸如 51% 网络威胁之类的攻击，或者更容易访问与比特币地址相关的私钥。

Longtime Bitcoin researcher Ethan Heilman emphasizes the ongoing challenge of safeguarding Bitcoin’s cryptographic security against quantum computing and other emerging threats. He highlights the need for adaptability over long timescales and the importance of evolving cryptographic solutions to protect funds over decades or even centuries.

长期比特币研究员 Ethan Heilman 强调了保护比特币加密安全免受量子计算和其他新兴威胁的持续挑战。他强调了长期适应性的必要性，以及不断发展的加密解决方案以保护数十年甚至数百年资金的重要性。

However, it’s crucial to note that the current threat level is being exaggerated. Google’s Willow, despite being a significant advancement, does not currently possess the capacity to break the cryptographic barriers protecting Bitcoin.

然而，值得注意的是，当前的威胁级别被夸大了。谷歌的 Willow 尽管取得了重大进步，但目前还不具备打破保护比特币的加密障碍的能力。

A recent research study from Universal Quantum suggests that a machine with 13 million qubits would be necessary to crack a Bitcoin private key within 24 hours, whereas Willow boasts only 105 qubits. Even Google acknowledges that Willow cannot currently threaten modern cryptography.

Universal Quantum 最近的一项研究表明，需要一台拥有 1300 万个量子位的机器才能在 24 小时内破解比特币私钥，而 Willow 仅拥有 105 个量子位。甚至谷歌也承认 Willow 目前无法威胁现代密码学。

Similarly, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang speculates that “very useful quantum computers” remain a distant prospect, possibly two decades away.

同样，英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋推测，“非常有用的量子计算机”仍然是一个遥远的前景，可能需要二十年的时间。

In discussions on platforms like ARK Invest’s Bitcoin Brainstorm podcast, experts like Blockstream CEO Adam Back have downplayed the immediacy of the quantum threat, suggesting that the timeline for when quantum computing becomes a realistic threat spans far into the future—potentially not within our lifetimes. Some estimates suggest that quantum computing might not challenge Bitcoin’s cryptography until the 2030s.

在 ARK Invest 的比特币头脑风暴播客等平台上的讨论中，Blockstream 首席执行官 Adam Back 等专家淡化了量子威胁的紧迫性，表明量子计算成为现实威胁的时间跨度很远，可能不是在我们有生之年。一些估计表明，量子计算可能要到 2030 年代才能挑战比特币的密码学。

As a precautionary measure, the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST) has advised transitioning to new cryptographic systems by 2035 to mitigate forward-secrecy risks against future quantum threats.

作为一项预防措施，美国国家标准与技术研究所 (NIST) 建议到 2035 年过渡到新的加密系统，以减轻未来量子威胁的前向保密风险。

Interestingly, most Bitcoin wallets are currently shielded from quantum attacks, as approximately 75% of them currently employ address types that are not susceptible to such risks.

有趣的是，大多数比特币钱包目前都免受量子攻击，因为其中大约 75% 目前采用不易受到此类风险影响的地址类型。

Nonetheless, continuous development and proposed upgrades, such as the draft Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP) known as QuBit, aim to bolster Bitcoin’s defenses against potential quantum threats.

尽管如此，持续的开发和拟议的升级，例如被称为 QuBit 的比特币改进提案（BIP）草案，旨在增强比特币对潜在量子威胁的防御能力。

The QuBit proposal introduces Pay to Quantum Resistant Hash (P2QRH) addresses featuring quantum-resistant signature schemes, promoting adoption through economic incentives.

QuBit 提案引入了以抗量子签名方案为特色的支付抗量子哈希 (P2QRH) 地址，通过经济激励措施促进采用。

Other potential solutions include the use of STARKs, a ZK proof technology, which provides additional privacy and scalability features, although implementation within Bitcoin presents challenges given the scalability concerns associated with larger quantum-resistant transactions.

其他潜在的解决方案包括使用 STARK，这是一种 ZK 证明技术，它提供了额外的隐私和可扩展性功能，尽管考虑到与较大的抗量子交易相关的可扩展性问题，在比特币中实施会带来挑战。

As quantum computing continues to develop, the Bitcoin community remains

随着量子计算的不断发展，比特币社区仍然存在