第二季市場展望：政策轉變推動貨幣動態，支撐風險資產

2024 年第一季標誌著市場的重大發展，人工智慧炒作推動科技指數創下歷史新高，而聯準會寬鬆政策的預期提振了風險資產。標準普爾 500 指數和那斯達克 100 指數分別上漲 10.15% 和 8.5%。在 FOMC 寬鬆政策的猜測下，金價飆升至 2,200 美元以上。美元表現強勁，尤其是兌日元，美元/日圓逼近 152.00。展望未來，全球寬鬆貨幣政策的趨勢可能會支撐風險資產，除非其他央行採取比聯準會更為鴿派的立場，否則美元可能會走弱。

Market Outlook for Q2: Shifts in Monetary Policy and Currency Dynamics

第二季市場展望：貨幣政策與貨幣動態的變化

The first quarter of 2024 witnessed a surge in market sentiment, driven by the relentless hype surrounding artificial intelligence and positive expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. Amidst this backdrop, tech-heavy indices soared to unprecedented heights, with Nasdaq 100 registering an 8.5% gain.

在圍繞人工智慧的持續炒作以及對聯準會貨幣政策前景的積極預期的推動下，2024 年第一季市場情緒飆升。在此背景下，科技股指數飆升至前所未有的高度，那斯達克指數 100 指數上漲 8.5%。

Gold embarked on a bullish trajectory, fueled by speculations of a less aggressive Federal Reserve stance, propelling the precious metal to a historic peak surpassing $2,200.

在聯準會立場不那麼激進的猜測推動下，金價走上看漲軌道，推動貴金屬突破 2,200 美元的歷史高點。

In the foreign exchange market, the U.S. dollar exhibited notable strength, particularly against the Japanese yen. USD/JPY surged more than 7% in the first quarter, approaching the psychologically significant 152.00 level. The yen's depreciation was exacerbated by the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain negative rates, highlighting the country's accommodative financial conditions.

外匯市場上，美元尤其是兌日圓走強。美元/日圓第一季飆升逾7%，逼近重要心理關卡152.00。日本央行維持負利率的決定加劇了日圓貶值，凸顯了該國寬鬆的金融狀況。

Anticipated Market Dynamics for Q2

第二季預期市場動態

For the second quarter, analysts anticipate a shift in market dynamics driven by a global trend towards looser monetary policy, barring any significant inflationary surprises. This shift is expected to support risk assets, particularly in the context of improving and stabilizing economic growth.

對於第二季度，分析師預計，除非出現任何重大通膨意外，否則全球貨幣政策寬鬆趨勢將推動市場動態轉變。這一轉變預計將支持風險資產，特別是在經濟成長改善和穩定的背景下。

The U.S. dollar could experience a downward trend, but its decline may be limited if other central banks adopt a more dovish outlook than the Fed.

美元可能會經歷下跌趨勢，但如果其他央行採取比聯準會更鴿派的前景，其跌幅可能有限。

Key Catalysts and Trading Opportunities

關鍵催化劑和交易機會

The second quarter promises a whirlwind of market forces, presenting exciting trading opportunities across currencies, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. Analysts at DailyFX have compiled comprehensive technical and fundamental forecasts to guide traders in navigating these dynamic markets.

第二季有望掀起一股市場力量旋風，帶來跨貨幣、大宗商品和加密貨幣的令人興奮的交易機會。 DailyFX 的分析師編制了全面的技術和基本面預測，以引導交易者駕馭這些動態市場。

Australian Dollar (AUD)

澳幣 (AUD)

The fundamental outlook for the Australian dollar suggests that the long-standing downtrend against the U.S. dollar may be waning, offering potential long positions for AUD/USD traders.

澳元的基本面前景表明，澳元兌美元的長期下跌趨勢可能正在減弱，為澳元/美元交易者提供了潛在的多頭部位。

Japanese Yen (JPY)

日元 (JPY)

The Japanese yen faces a critical juncture in Q2, with USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and GBP/JPY pairs poised for significant movements. The interplay of price action dynamics and market sentiment will determine the direction of the yen in the coming months.

日圓在第二季面臨關鍵時刻，美元/日圓、歐元/日圓和英鎊/日圓貨幣對將大幅波動。價格走勢動態和市場情緒的相互作用將決定未來幾個月日圓的走向。

British Pound (GBP)

英鎊 (GBP)

The Bank of England's dovish stance raises questions about the possibility of interest rate cuts in Q2. Interest rate expectations could heavily influence the pound's trajectory.

英國央行的鴿派立場引發了人們對第二季降息可能性的質疑。利率預期可能會嚴重影響英鎊的走勢。

Equities

股票

US indices continue to break records, showing no signs of slowing down. Fibonacci projections offer insights into potential price targets for the coming quarter.

美國指數繼續打破紀錄，沒有顯示放緩的跡象。斐波那契預測提供了對下一季潛在價格目標的見解。

Crude Oil

原油

Crude oil prices may continue to rise in Q2, but they remain susceptible to short-term uncertainty. OPEC's production cuts will provide support, but the market remains volatile.

第二季原油價格可能會持續上漲，但仍容易受到短期不確定性的影響。 OPEC減產將提供支撐，但市場仍波動。

Cryptocurrencies

加密貨幣

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana face a pivotal Q2, with sentiment and price thresholds playing a crucial role in determining their direction.

比特幣、以太坊和 Solana 面臨關鍵的第二季度，情緒和價格門檻在決定它們的方向方面發揮著至關重要的作用。

Gold

金子

Gold is poised in neutral waters, neither bullish nor bearish. Fundamental factors will determine the precious metal's trajectory.

黃金處於中性水域，既不看漲也不看跌。基本面因素將決定貴金屬的走勢。

Euro (EUR)

歐元 (EUR)

EUR/USD has experienced volatility in Q1, with the actively traded currency pair facing both highs and lows. The second quarter holds uncertainties, and technical and fundamental analysis will provide insights into its path.

歐元兌美元在第一季經歷了波動，交易活躍的貨幣對同時面臨高點和低點。第二季度存在不確定性，技術和基本面分析將為其發展路徑提供見解。

U.S. Dollar (USD)

美元 (USD)

The U.S. dollar's strong performance in Q1 is likely to continue, albeit to a lesser extent. Moderate growth and potential rate cuts by major central banks could limit the dollar's appreciation.

美元第一季的強勁表現可能會持續，儘管程度較小。溫和的成長和主要央行可能的降息可能會限制美元的升值。

In-Depth Analysis and Trading Forecasts

深入分析和交易預測

For a comprehensive analysis of specific currency pairs and asset classes, traders are encouraged to request the respective forecasts provided by DailyFX. These reports offer in-depth insights into fundamental and technical outlooks, providing valuable guidance for informed trading decisions.

為了對特定貨幣對和資產類別進行全面分析，我們鼓勵交易者索取 DailyFX 提供的相應預測。這些報告提供了對基本面和技術前景的深入見解，為明智的交易決策提供了寶貴的指導。