第二季度市场展望：政策转变推动货币动态，支撑风险资产

2024 年第一季度标志着市场的重大发展，人工智能炒作推动科技指数创下历史新高，美联储宽松政策的预期提振了风险资产。标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克 100 指数分别上涨 10.15% 和 8.5%。在 FOMC 宽松政策的猜测下，金价飙升至 2,200 美元以上。美元表现强劲，尤其是兑日元，美元/日元逼近 152.00。展望未来，全球宽松货币政策的趋势可能会支撑风险资产，而除非其他央行采取比美联储更为鸽派的立场，否则美元可能会走弱。

Market Outlook for Q2: Shifts in Monetary Policy and Currency Dynamics

第二季度市场展望：货币政策和货币动态的变化

The first quarter of 2024 witnessed a surge in market sentiment, driven by the relentless hype surrounding artificial intelligence and positive expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. Amidst this backdrop, tech-heavy indices soared to unprecedented heights, with Nasdaq 100 registering an 8.5% gain.

在围绕人工智能的持续炒作以及对美联储货币政策前景的积极预期的推动下，2024 年第一季度市场情绪飙升。在此背景下，科技股指数飙升至前所未有的高度，纳斯达克 100 指数上涨 8.5%。

Gold embarked on a bullish trajectory, fueled by speculations of a less aggressive Federal Reserve stance, propelling the precious metal to a historic peak surpassing $2,200.

在美联储立场不那么激进的猜测推动下，金价走上看涨轨道，推动贵金属突破 2,200 美元的历史高点。

In the foreign exchange market, the U.S. dollar exhibited notable strength, particularly against the Japanese yen. USD/JPY surged more than 7% in the first quarter, approaching the psychologically significant 152.00 level. The yen's depreciation was exacerbated by the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain negative rates, highlighting the country's accommodative financial conditions.

外汇市场上，美元尤其是兑日元走强。美元/日元第一季度飙升逾7%，逼近重要心理关口152.00。日本央行维持负利率的决定加剧了日元贬值，凸显了该国宽松的金融状况。

Anticipated Market Dynamics for Q2

第二季度预期市场动态

For the second quarter, analysts anticipate a shift in market dynamics driven by a global trend towards looser monetary policy, barring any significant inflationary surprises. This shift is expected to support risk assets, particularly in the context of improving and stabilizing economic growth.

对于第二季度，分析师预计，除非出现任何重大通胀意外，否则全球货币政策宽松趋势将推动市场动态发生转变。这一转变预计将支持风险资产，特别是在经济增长改善和稳定的背景下。

The U.S. dollar could experience a downward trend, but its decline may be limited if other central banks adopt a more dovish outlook than the Fed.

美元可能会经历下跌趋势，但如果其他央行采取比美联储更为鸽派的前景，其跌幅可能有限。

Key Catalysts and Trading Opportunities

关键催化剂和交易机会

The second quarter promises a whirlwind of market forces, presenting exciting trading opportunities across currencies, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. Analysts at DailyFX have compiled comprehensive technical and fundamental forecasts to guide traders in navigating these dynamic markets.

第二季度有望掀起一股市场力量旋风，带来跨货币、大宗商品和加密货币的令人兴奋的交易机会。 DailyFX 的分析师编制了全面的技术和基本面预测，以指导交易者驾驭这些动态市场。

Australian Dollar (AUD)

澳元 (AUD)

The fundamental outlook for the Australian dollar suggests that the long-standing downtrend against the U.S. dollar may be waning, offering potential long positions for AUD/USD traders.

澳元的基本面前景表明，澳元兑美元的长期下跌趋势可能正在减弱，为澳元/美元交易者提供了潜在的多头头寸。

Japanese Yen (JPY)

日元 (JPY)

The Japanese yen faces a critical juncture in Q2, with USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and GBP/JPY pairs poised for significant movements. The interplay of price action dynamics and market sentiment will determine the direction of the yen in the coming months.

日元在第二季度面临关键时刻，美元/日元、欧元/日元和英镑/日元货币对将出现大幅波动。价格走势动态和市场情绪的相互作用将决定未来几个月日元的走向。

British Pound (GBP)

英镑 (GBP)

The Bank of England's dovish stance raises questions about the possibility of interest rate cuts in Q2. Interest rate expectations could heavily influence the pound's trajectory.

英国央行的鸽派立场引发了人们对第二季度降息可能性的质疑。利率预期可能会严重影响英镑的走势。

Equities

股票

US indices continue to break records, showing no signs of slowing down. Fibonacci projections offer insights into potential price targets for the coming quarter.

美国指数继续打破纪录，没有显示出放缓的迹象。斐波那契预测提供了对下一季度潜在价格目标的见解。

Crude Oil

原油

Crude oil prices may continue to rise in Q2, but they remain susceptible to short-term uncertainty. OPEC's production cuts will provide support, but the market remains volatile.

第二季度原油价格可能继续上涨，但仍容易受到短期不确定性的影响。 OPEC减产将提供支撑，但市场依然波动。

Cryptocurrencies

加密货币

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana face a pivotal Q2, with sentiment and price thresholds playing a crucial role in determining their direction.

比特币、以太坊和 Solana 面临着关键的第二季度，情绪和价格门槛在决定它们的方向方面发挥着至关重要的作用。

Gold

金子

Gold is poised in neutral waters, neither bullish nor bearish. Fundamental factors will determine the precious metal's trajectory.

黄金处于中性水域，既不看涨也不看跌。基本面因素将决定贵金属的走势。

Euro (EUR)

欧元 (EUR)

EUR/USD has experienced volatility in Q1, with the actively traded currency pair facing both highs and lows. The second quarter holds uncertainties, and technical and fundamental analysis will provide insights into its path.

欧元/美元在第一季度经历了波动，交易活跃的货币对同时面临高点和低点。第二季度存在不确定性，技术和基本面分析将为其发展路径提供见解。

U.S. Dollar (USD)

美元 (USD)

The U.S. dollar's strong performance in Q1 is likely to continue, albeit to a lesser extent. Moderate growth and potential rate cuts by major central banks could limit the dollar's appreciation.

美元第一季度的强劲表现可能会持续，尽管程度较小。温和的增长和主要央行可能的降息可能会限制美元的升值。

In-Depth Analysis and Trading Forecasts

深入分析和交易预测

For a comprehensive analysis of specific currency pairs and asset classes, traders are encouraged to request the respective forecasts provided by DailyFX. These reports offer in-depth insights into fundamental and technical outlooks, providing valuable guidance for informed trading decisions.

为了对特定货币对和资产类别进行全面分析，我们鼓励交易者索取 DailyFX 提供的相应预测。这些报告提供了对基本面和技术前景的深入见解，为明智的交易决策提供了宝贵的指导。