什麼可能會將比特幣（BTC）的價格提高 - 什麼可能導致它下降

眾所周知，做出預測是棘手的，當試圖查明以其波動性而聞名的領先的加密貨幣時，從現在起五年來。

Making predictions is notoriously tricky, even more so when trying to pinpoint where a leading cryptocurrency known for its volatility will be five years from now. Instead of trying to guess what Bitcoin's (BTC -1.96%) value will be in the future, a better approach might be to look at what could push its price higher -- and what might cause it to fall.

眾所周知，做出預測是棘手的，當試圖查明以其波動性而聞名的領先的加密貨幣時，從現在起五年來。與其試圖猜測將來的比特幣（BTC -1.96％）的價值是什麼，不如說是一種更好的方法是查看可能提高其價格的原因 - 什麼可能導致其下降。

As the past few months have already proven, there are compelling reasons to think Bitcoin's value could rise or fall dramatically, thanks to increasing uncertainty in the U.S. economy. Here's how it might play out for Bitcoin over the next five years.

正如過去幾個月已經證明的那樣，由於美國經濟不確定性的增加，有令人信服的理由認為比特幣的價值可能會急劇上升或下降。這是未來五年可能會為比特幣發揮作用的方式。

Image source: Getty Images.

圖像來源：蓋蒂圖像。

Bitcoin's potential catalysts

比特幣的潛在催化劑

One of the most significant catalysts for Bitcoin's value right now has come from the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that debuted last year. These funds offer investors an easy way to gain exposure to Bitcoin without the sometimes complicated process of buying crypto themselves. For example, investors can buy the iShares Bitcoin ETF Trust (IBIT -2.29%), a fund that tracks the performance of Bitcoin. You can buy just one share, currently about $50, compared to Bitcoin's price of about $86,500. Sure, you can buy a small fraction of an actual Bitcoin, but that option may not be obvious to every investor.

現在，比特幣價值最重要的催化劑之一來自去年首次亮相的現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）。這些資金為投資者提供了一種容易獲得比特幣的簡便方法，而沒有有時購買加密貨幣本身的複雜過程。例如，投資者可以購買Ishares比特幣ETF Trust（IBIT -2.29％），這是跟踪比特幣績效的基金。您只能購買一股，目前約50美元，而比特幣的價格約為86,500美元。當然，您可以購買一小部分實際比特幣，但是​​對於每個投資者來說，這種選擇可能並不明顯。

A little more than one year after launching, the iShares Bitcoin ETF Trust already has nearly $50 billion in assets, showing just how popular Bitcoin ETFs have become. If more investors follow suit to these ETFs, Bitcoin's value could rise further.

啟動一年後，iShares比特幣ETF信託基金已經擁有近500億美元的資產，顯示了比特幣ETF的流行程度。如果越來越多的投資者效仿這些ETF，則比特幣的價值可能會進一步上升。

And then there's the general openness and sometimes outright promotion of cryptocurrencies by the Trump administration. After establishing a crypto czar to see how the U.S. could move further into digital coins, President Donald Trump recently announced plans for a strategic crypto reserve, with Bitcoin as the largest holding.

然後，特朗普政府對加密貨幣進行了普遍的開放，有時甚至徹底促進了加密貨幣。唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）總統建立了加密沙皇（Crypto Czar）以了解美國如何進一步進入數字硬幣之後，最近宣布了戰略性加密保護區的計劃，比特幣是最大的持有。

With President Trump at the beginning of his four-year term, further actions taken by the administration that are seen as beneficial to Bitcoin or cryptocurrency in general could drive its value higher.

隨著特朗普總統在四年任期的開始，政府採取的進一步行動被認為對比特幣或加密貨幣有益，可能會推動其價值更高。

Finally, there are increasing concerns that a period of high inflation could return, spurred by Trump's threats of tariffs against U.S. trading partners. Higher tariffs would likely result in higher consumer prices, and investors are moving some of their money into Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation.

最後，人們越來越擔心，特朗普對美國貿易夥伴的關稅威脅刺激了一段高通貨膨脹時期。較高的關稅可能會導致更高的消費價格，投資者將其一些資金轉移到比特幣中，以抵抗通貨膨脹。

Because of Bitcoin's inherent scarcity, some investors view the crypto as having a long-term trajectory toward increasing value. As such, owning some Bitcoin could be a good way to fight inflation if prices rise and the value of the dollar decreases.

由於比特幣固有的稀缺性，一些投資者認為加密貨幣具有長期軌跡，可以增加價值。因此，如果價格上漲和美元的價值下降，擁有一些比特幣可能是打擊通貨膨脹的好方法。

There are some hurdles, too

也有一些障礙

It's probably not all sunshine and rainbows for Bitcoin over the next five years. For example, a recent CNBC survey of CFOs found that 75% predict a recession will begin in the second half of this year or early next year.

在接下來的五年中，這可能並不是比特幣的陽光和彩虹。例如，最近對CNBC CFO的一項調查發現，有75％的人預測衰退將在今年下半年或明年年初開始。

The CFOs, as well as an increasing number of economists, are concerned that President Trump's tariffs could end up pushing the economy downtown. Recessions vary in length, with the average being about 10 months, but they can be longer, as with the Great Recession, which lasted 18 months.

首席財務官以及越來越多的經濟學家都擔心特朗普總統的關稅最終可能會推動市區的經濟。衰退的長度各不相同，平均值約為10個月，但與持續18個月的大蕭條一樣，它們可能更長。

Bitcoin's value isn't immune to feeling the impact if a recession rears its ugly head. The crypto's price has gone through dramatic price swings when investors have sensed uncertainty in the market or the economy.

如果經濟衰退抬起醜陋的頭部，比特幣的價值不可能感受到影響。當投資者感覺到市場或經濟的不確定性時，加密貨幣的價格經歷了巨大的價格波動。

Even if a recession doesn't materialize, the general angst among some investors is already affecting Bitcoin's value, pushing it down about 12% over the past three months. Bitcoin could rally again, of course, but the takeaway here is that when companies, consumers, and investors are concerned about the economy, Bitcoin's value will likely be impacted as well.

即使經濟衰退未實現，一些投資者的普遍焦慮已經在影響比特幣的價值，在過去三個月中將其降低了約12％。當然，比特幣可以再次集會，但是這裡的收穫是，當公司，消費者和投資者擔心經濟時，比特幣的價值也可能會受到影響。

Finally, while the Trump administration has so far been light on regulation for cryptos, if this policy shifts or the next administration tightens regulations, Bitcoin's price could fall.

最後，儘管到目前為止，特朗普政府對加密貨幣的監管進行了啟示，但如果該政策發生了變化或下一個政府加強法規，則比特幣的價格可能會下降。

Where could Bitcoin be in 2030?

2030年比特幣可以在哪裡？

If we look at Bitcoin's price changes over the past 11 years, the two five-year time intervals have been very good for the crypto's value. Between late 2014 and 2019, Bitcoin surged more than 1,700%, and from 2020 to now, it has gained an additional 1,100%.

如果我們查看過去11年中比特幣的價格變化，那麼兩個五年的時間間隔對加密貨幣的價值非常好。在2014年底至2019年之間，比特幣飆升了1,700％以上，從2020年到現在，它增加了1,100％。

Now, that doesn't mean Bitcoin will see similar gains over the next five years. It could just as easily plummet based on some unforeseen problem.

現在，這並不意味著比特幣將在未來五年內看到類似的收益。基於一些不可預見的問題，它可以很容易地暴跌。

But I mention these impressive gains because it shows that Bitcoin has proven to be a lucrative, albeit speculative, investment over time. With some significant tailwinds for the crypto in place, I wouldn't be surprised if it outpaces the skeptics' expectations between now and 2030.

但是我提到了這些令人印象深刻的收益，因為它表明比特幣被證明是一項有利可圖的，儘管隨著時間的推移是投機性的。有了一些對加密貨幣的明顯逆風，如果它超過了懷疑論者在現在到2030年之間的期望，我就不會感到驚訝。

Just keep in mind that owning any crypto is very speculative, and it's

請記住，擁有任何加密非常投機，這是