2025 年加密貨幣的 7 個預測：比特幣、ETF 和全球採用

2024 年標誌著比特幣和更廣泛的加密貨幣生態系統的歷史性轉折點。首個比特幣和以太幣 ETF 推出

The year 2024 brought about historic developments and turning points for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. Among the key highlights:

2024 年為比特幣和更廣泛的加密貨幣生態系統帶來了歷史性發展和轉折點。主要亮點包括：

The launch of the first Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs marked a significant moment in the institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies. These ETFs provided investors with regulated exposure to digital assets, attracting a record-breaking total of over $100 billion in assets under management (AUM) within their first year.

首批比特幣和以太幣 ETF 的推出標誌著機構採用加密貨幣的重要時刻。這些 ETF 為投資者提供了受監管的數位資產敞口，第一年就吸引了創紀錄的總管理資產 (AUM) 超過 1000 億美元。

Bitcoin ETFs were the most successful ETF launch ever. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, almost doubled its Gold ETF, IAU, just in its first year.

比特幣 ETF 是有史以來推出的最成功的 ETF。貝萊德的比特幣 ETF（IBIT）僅在第一年就幾乎使其黃金 ETF（IAU）增加了一倍。

Major financial institutions played a pivotal role in these launches. BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, led the way with its physical Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), while Fidelity and Ark Invest also introduced their own ETFs, further integrating Bitcoin into traditional financial markets.

主要金融機構在這些推出中發揮了關鍵作用。全球最大的資產管理公司貝萊德率先推出實體比特幣ETF（IBIT），而富達和Ark Invest也推出了自己的ETF，進一步將比特幣融入傳統金融市場。

Bitcoin ETFs paved the way for further innovation in crypto-focused ETFs, setting the stage for the integration of staking and the launch of ETFs for other leading protocols like Solana. Additionally, we can expect to see the introduction of weighted crypto index ETFs, providing diversified exposure across the broader crypto market.

比特幣 ETF 為以加密貨幣為中心的 ETF 的進一步創新鋪平了道路，為質押整合以及 Solana 等其他領先協議推出 ETF 奠定了基礎。此外，我們預計將看到加權加密指數 ETF 的推出，從而在更廣泛的加密市場上提供多元化的投資。

Bitcoin crossed the $100,000 threshold for the first time in 2024, continuing its remarkable bull run and setting new all-time highs throughout the year. This sustained growth was fueled by both retail and institutional demand, as well as the anticipation of Bitcoin ETFs and other positive regulatory developments.

比特幣在 2024 年首次突破 10 萬美元大關，繼續其非凡的牛市行情，並在全年創下新的歷史新高。這種持續成長是由零售和機構需求以及比特幣 ETF 和其他積極監管發展的預期所推動的。

The cryptocurrency market also saw the rise of stablecoins, which emerged as one of crypto's most successful mainstream use cases. Stablecoins acted as a bridge between traditional finance and the crypto ecosystem, offering a stable digital store of value and facilitating everyday transactions, particularly in countries affected by hyperinflation or economic instability.

加密貨幣市場也見證了穩定幣的崛起，穩定幣成為加密貨幣最成功的主流用例之一。穩定幣充當了傳統金融和加密生態系統之間的橋樑，提供穩定的數位價值儲存並促進日常交易，特別是在受惡性通貨膨脹或經濟不穩定影響的國家。

Throughout the year, millions of people around the world used stablecoins for remittance payments and to hedge against local currency volatility, gaining access to the relative stability of the U.S. dollar. By the end of 2024, the total circulating supply of stablecoins reached an all-time high of $200 billion.

全年，全球數百萬人使用穩定幣進行匯款支付並對沖本幣波動，獲得了美元的相對穩定性。到2024年底，穩定幣的總流通供應量達到2,000億美元的歷史新高。

Among the various stablecoins, Tether and Circle's USDC continued to dominate the market, accounting for the majority of the total stablecoin supply. These stablecoins were integrated into Layer 1 and Layer 2 blockchain networks such as Ethereum, Solana, and Tron, enabling seamless, borderless transactions and expanding their reach across different ecosystems.

在各類穩定幣中，Tether 和 Circle 的 USDC 繼續主導市場，佔據穩定幣總供應量的大部分。這些穩定幣被整合到以太坊、Solana 和 Tron 等第 1 層和第 2 層區塊鏈網路中，實現無縫、無邊界交易，並擴大其在不同生態系統中的覆蓋範圍。

As stablecoins continued to gain traction and play a crucial role in the crypto ecosystem, regulators around the world began to pay closer attention to their operations and regulatory frameworks. In the United States, stablecoins fell under the jurisdiction of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), which issued guidance and engaged in discussions regarding stablecoin regulation throughout 2024.

隨著穩定幣繼續受到關注並在加密生態系統中發揮至關重要的作用，世界各地的監管機構開始更加關注其營運和監管框架。在美國，穩定幣屬於貨幣監理署 (OCC) 的管轄範圍，該辦公室在 2024 年全年發布有關穩定幣監管的指導意見並進行討論。

Stablecoins reached a new all time high this year exceeding $200 billion in total supply for the first time. The growth was led by Tether and Circle's USDC.

穩定幣今年創下歷史新高，總供應量首次超過 2,000 億美元。這一增長由 Tether 和 Circle 的 USDC 引領。

Meanwhile, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) remained focused on centralized stablecoin issuers, examining their reserves and practices to ensure the proper backing of the stablecoins in circulation. Several stablecoin audits were conducted by accounting firms and attestations were published, attesting to the stablecoin reserves and stablecoin issuance processes.

同時，美國證券交易委員會（SEC）仍然關注中心化的穩定幣發行人，檢查其儲備和做法，以確保流通中的穩定幣得到適當的支持。會計師事務所進行了多次穩定幣審計，並發布了證明，證明了穩定幣儲備和穩定幣發行流程。

In the realm of decentralized finance (DeFi), Bitcoin began to show signs of life as a development platform with the emergence of Layer 2 (L2) networks like Stacks, BOD, Babylon, CoreDAO, and others. These L2s brought about the potential for a thriving Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem, enabling DeFi applications to be built on top of Bitcoin and leveraging its security.

在去中心化金融 (DeFi) 領域，隨著 Stacks、BOD、Babylon、CoreDAO 等第 2 層 (L2) 網路的出現，比特幣開始顯示出作為開發平台的生命跡象。這些 L2 帶來了繁榮的比特幣 DeFi 生態系統的潛力，使 DeFi 應用程式能夠建立在比特幣之上並利用其安全性。

Stacks had a transformative year in 2024 with the launch of the Nakamoto Upgrade and sBTC. The Nakamoto Upgrade allowed Stacks to inherit 100% Bitcoin finality and introduced faster block speeds, significantly improving user experience. Meanwhile, sBTC, a trustless Bitcoin-pegged asset launched in December, enabled seamless participation in DeFi activities such as lending, borrowing, swapping, and staking—all anchored to Bitcoin’s security.

隨著 Nakamoto Upgrade 和 sBTC 的推出，Stacks 在 2024 年經歷了變革的一年。中本聰升級讓Stacks繼承了100%的比特幣最終性，並引入了更快的出塊速度，顯著改善了用戶體驗。同時，sBTC 是一種與比特幣掛鉤的去信任資產，於 12 月推出，可以無縫參與借貸、交換和質押等 DeFi 活動，所有這些都以比特幣的安全性為基礎。

Previously, Bitcoin holders who wanted to participate in DeFi were forced to wrap their Bitcoin on other networks like Ethereum. This process relied on centralized custodians such as WBTC (BitGo), BTCB (Binance), and cbBTC (Coinbase), exposing users to centralization and censorship risks. Bitcoin L2s aimed to reduce these risks and offer a more decentralized alternative to putting Bitcoin to work natively within its own ecosystem.

此前，想要參與 DeFi 的比特幣持有者被迫將其比特幣包裝在以太坊等其他網路上。這個過程依賴 WBTC (BitGo)、BTCB (Binance) 和 cbBTC (Coinbase) 等中心化託管機構，使用戶面臨中心化和審查風險。比特幣 L2 旨在降低這些風險，並提供更去中心化的替代方案，讓比特幣在自己的生態系統中運行。

Wrapped Bitcoin derivative tokens on other blockchains make up over $24 billion or about 1.2% of the total Bitcoin supply.

其他區塊鏈上打包的比特幣衍生代幣價值超過 240 億美元，約佔比特幣總供應量的 1.2%。

As Bitcoin L2s continued to evolve and gain adoption, we saw the launch of several decentralized applications (dApps) and DeFi protocols on these networks. These dApps ranged from lending and borrowing platforms to decentralized exchanges (DEXs) and derivatives protocols, offering a diverse array of financial

隨著比特幣 L2 的不斷發展和普及，我們看到了一些去中心化應用程式 (dApp) 和 DeFi 協議在這些網路上的推出。這些 dApp 涵蓋借貸平台、去中心化交易所 (DEX) 和衍生性商品協議，提供各種金融服務