2025 年加密货币的 7 个预测：比特币、ETF 和全球采用

2024 年标志着比特币和更广泛的加密货币生态系统的历史性转折点。首个比特币和以太坊 ETF 推出

The year 2024 brought about historic developments and turning points for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. Among the key highlights:

2024 年为比特币和更广泛的加密货币生态系统带来了历史性发展和转折点。主要亮点包括：

The launch of the first Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs marked a significant moment in the institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies. These ETFs provided investors with regulated exposure to digital assets, attracting a record-breaking total of over $100 billion in assets under management (AUM) within their first year.

首批比特币和以太坊 ETF 的推出标志着机构采用加密货币的重要时刻。这些 ETF 为投资者提供了受监管的数字资产敞口，第一年就吸引了创纪录的总管理资产 (AUM) 超过 1000 亿美元。

Bitcoin ETFs were the most successful ETF launch ever. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, almost doubled its Gold ETF, IAU, just in its first year.

比特币 ETF 是有史以来推出的最成功的 ETF。贝莱德的比特币 ETF（IBIT）仅在第一年就几乎使其黄金 ETF（IAU）翻了一倍。

Major financial institutions played a pivotal role in these launches. BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, led the way with its physical Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), while Fidelity and Ark Invest also introduced their own ETFs, further integrating Bitcoin into traditional financial markets.

主要金融机构在这些推出中发挥了关键作用。全球最大的资产管理公司贝莱德率先推出实物比特币ETF（IBIT），而富达和Ark Invest也推出了自己的ETF，进一步将比特币融入传统金融市场。

Bitcoin ETFs paved the way for further innovation in crypto-focused ETFs, setting the stage for the integration of staking and the launch of ETFs for other leading protocols like Solana. Additionally, we can expect to see the introduction of weighted crypto index ETFs, providing diversified exposure across the broader crypto market.

比特币 ETF 为以加密货币为中心的 ETF 的进一步创新铺平了道路，为质押整合以及 Solana 等其他领先协议推出 ETF 奠定了基础。此外，我们预计将看到加权加密指数 ETF 的推出，从而在更广泛的加密市场上提供多元化的投资。

Bitcoin crossed the $100,000 threshold for the first time in 2024, continuing its remarkable bull run and setting new all-time highs throughout the year. This sustained growth was fueled by both retail and institutional demand, as well as the anticipation of Bitcoin ETFs and other positive regulatory developments.

比特币在 2024 年首次突破 10 万美元大关，继续其非凡的牛市行情，并在全年创下新的历史新高。这种持续增长是由零售和机构需求以及比特币 ETF 和其他积极监管发展的预期推动的。

The cryptocurrency market also saw the rise of stablecoins, which emerged as one of crypto's most successful mainstream use cases. Stablecoins acted as a bridge between traditional finance and the crypto ecosystem, offering a stable digital store of value and facilitating everyday transactions, particularly in countries affected by hyperinflation or economic instability.

加密货币市场也见证了稳定币的崛起，稳定币成为加密货币最成功的主流用例之一。稳定币充当了传统金融和加密生态系统之间的桥梁，提供稳定的数字价值存储并促进日常交易，特别是在受恶性通货膨胀或经济不稳定影响的国家。

Throughout the year, millions of people around the world used stablecoins for remittance payments and to hedge against local currency volatility, gaining access to the relative stability of the U.S. dollar. By the end of 2024, the total circulating supply of stablecoins reached an all-time high of $200 billion.

全年，全球数百万人使用稳定币进行汇款支付并对冲本币波动，获得了美元的相对稳定性。到2024年底，稳定币的总流通供应量达到2000亿美元的历史新高。

Among the various stablecoins, Tether and Circle's USDC continued to dominate the market, accounting for the majority of the total stablecoin supply. These stablecoins were integrated into Layer 1 and Layer 2 blockchain networks such as Ethereum, Solana, and Tron, enabling seamless, borderless transactions and expanding their reach across different ecosystems.

在各类稳定币中，Tether 和 Circle 的 USDC 继续主导市场，占据稳定币总供应量的大部分。这些稳定币被集成到以太坊、Solana 和 Tron 等第 1 层和第 2 层区块链网络中，实现无缝、无边界交易，并扩大其在不同生态系统中的覆盖范围。

As stablecoins continued to gain traction and play a crucial role in the crypto ecosystem, regulators around the world began to pay closer attention to their operations and regulatory frameworks. In the United States, stablecoins fell under the jurisdiction of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), which issued guidance and engaged in discussions regarding stablecoin regulation throughout 2024.

随着稳定币继续受到关注并在加密生态系统中发挥至关重要的作用，世界各地的监管机构开始更加关注其运营和监管框架。在美国，稳定币属于货币监理署 (OCC) 的管辖范围，该办公室在 2024 年全年发布有关稳定币监管的指导意见并进行讨论。

Stablecoins reached a new all time high this year exceeding $200 billion in total supply for the first time. The growth was led by Tether and Circle's USDC.

稳定币今年创下历史新高，总供应量首次超过 2000 亿美元。这一增长由 Tether 和 Circle 的 USDC 引领。

Meanwhile, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) remained focused on centralized stablecoin issuers, examining their reserves and practices to ensure the proper backing of the stablecoins in circulation. Several stablecoin audits were conducted by accounting firms and attestations were published, attesting to the stablecoin reserves and stablecoin issuance processes.

与此同时，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）仍然关注中心化的稳定币发行人，检查其储备和做法，以确保流通中的稳定币得到适当的支持。会计师事务所进行了多次稳定币审计，并发布了证明，证明了稳定币储备和稳定币发行流程。

In the realm of decentralized finance (DeFi), Bitcoin began to show signs of life as a development platform with the emergence of Layer 2 (L2) networks like Stacks, BOD, Babylon, CoreDAO, and others. These L2s brought about the potential for a thriving Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem, enabling DeFi applications to be built on top of Bitcoin and leveraging its security.

在去中心化金融 (DeFi) 领域，随着 Stacks、BOD、Babylon、CoreDAO 等第 2 层 (L2) 网络的出现，比特币开始显示出作为开发平台的生命迹象。这些 L2 带来了繁荣的比特币 DeFi 生态系统的潜力，使 DeFi 应用程序能够构建在比特币之上并利用其安全性。

Stacks had a transformative year in 2024 with the launch of the Nakamoto Upgrade and sBTC. The Nakamoto Upgrade allowed Stacks to inherit 100% Bitcoin finality and introduced faster block speeds, significantly improving user experience. Meanwhile, sBTC, a trustless Bitcoin-pegged asset launched in December, enabled seamless participation in DeFi activities such as lending, borrowing, swapping, and staking—all anchored to Bitcoin’s security.

随着 Nakamoto Upgrade 和 sBTC 的推出，Stacks 在 2024 年经历了变革的一年。中本聪升级让Stacks继承了100%的比特币最终性，并引入了更快的出块速度，显着改善了用户体验。与此同时，sBTC 是一种与比特币挂钩的去信任资产，于 12 月推出，可以无缝参与借贷、交换和质押等 DeFi 活动，所有这些都以比特币的安全性为基础。

Previously, Bitcoin holders who wanted to participate in DeFi were forced to wrap their Bitcoin on other networks like Ethereum. This process relied on centralized custodians such as WBTC (BitGo), BTCB (Binance), and cbBTC (Coinbase), exposing users to centralization and censorship risks. Bitcoin L2s aimed to reduce these risks and offer a more decentralized alternative to putting Bitcoin to work natively within its own ecosystem.

此前，想要参与 DeFi 的比特币持有者被迫将其比特币包装在以太坊等其他网络上。这一过程依赖于 WBTC (BitGo)、BTCB (Binance) 和 cbBTC (Coinbase) 等中心化托管机构，使用户面临中心化和审查风险。比特币 L2 旨在降低这些风险，并提供一种更加去中心化的替代方案，让比特币在自己的生态系统中本地运行。

Wrapped Bitcoin derivative tokens on other blockchains make up over $24 billion or about 1.2% of the total Bitcoin supply.

其他区块链上打包的比特币衍生代币价值超过 240 亿美元，约占比特币总供应量的 1.2%。

As Bitcoin L2s continued to evolve and gain adoption, we saw the launch of several decentralized applications (dApps) and DeFi protocols on these networks. These dApps ranged from lending and borrowing platforms to decentralized exchanges (DEXs) and derivatives protocols, offering a diverse array of financial

随着比特币 L2 的不断发展和普及，我们看到了一些去中心化应用程序 (dApp) 和 DeFi 协议在这些网络上的推出。这些 dApp 涵盖借贷平台、去中心化交易所 (DEX) 和衍生品协议，提供各种金融服务