預測市場：押注不確定性

再過20天，美國總統大選就將落幕，所有的辯論、社群媒體的狂熱和市場的波動都將迎來喘息之機

With the US Presidential election rapidly approaching, various markets are offering unique insights into the potential outcome of the highly anticipated race. Among these markets, prediction markets have garnered significant attention, offering a unique perspective on how future events might unfold.

隨著美國總統大選的臨近，各個市場都對這場備受期待的競選的潛在結果提供了獨特的見解。在這些市場中，預測市場受到了極大的關注，為未來事件如何發展提供了獨特的視角。

In essence, prediction markets, also known as betting markets, allow users to place bets on the occurrence or non-occurrence of an event. These markets function similarly to futures markets, where traders bid up or down for a future contract's price based on their expectations for the future price of the underlying asset.

從本質上講，預測市場，也稱為投注市場，允許用戶對事件發生或不發生進行投注。這些市場的功能與期貨市場類似，交易者根據對標的資產未來價格的預期來提高或降低未來合約的價格。

In prediction markets, a future event is being traded upon, with users voting yes or no to future events, based on which the market determines a price representing the estimate of the probability of the event occurring. The prices indicate what the crowd thinks the probability of the event is.

在預測市場中，未來事件正在被交易，用戶對未來事件投票是或否，市場據此確定代表事件發生機率估計的價格。價格顯示了人群對事件發生機率的看法。

Prediction markets or information markets belong to the realm of crowdsourcing, designed to aggregate information on a particular topic. This way, it extracts the belief over an unknown future outcome.

預測市場或資訊市場屬於眾包領域，旨在聚合特定主題的資訊。透過這種方式，它提取了對未知未來結果的信念。

These decision markets benefit from the wisdom of crowds, and by collecting and weighing these predictions, we can have a more balanced and reliable market-wide forecast than a single expert’s opinion.

這些決策市場受益於群體的智慧，透過收集和權衡這些預測，我們可以得到比單一專家的意見更加平衡和可靠的整個市場預測。

Interestingly, prediction markets aren’t anything new. In fact, the early forms of these markets were political betting.

有趣的是，預測市場並不是什麼新鮮事。事實上，這些市場的早期形式是政治賭博。

As per Paul Rhode and Koleman Strumpf, records of election betting on Wall Street can be traced back as early as 1884, with the average betting turnover for each election estimated to be more than half of the campaign budget.

根據Paul Rhode和Koleman Strumpf介紹，華爾街的選舉投注記錄可以追溯到1884年，每次選舉的平均投注額估計超過競選預算的一半以上。

The Iowa Electronic Markets, which is operated by faculty at the University of Iowa, is one of the first modern electronic prediction markets. Then, at Project Xanadu, as per economist Robin Hanson, a professor at George Mason University, the first corporate prediction market was used.

愛荷華電子市場由愛荷華大學教師經營，是最早的現代電子預測市場之一。然後，根據喬治梅森大學教授、經濟學家羅賓漢森的說法，「Xanadu 計畫」使用了第一個企業預測市場。

An advocate for prediction markets, Hanson argues, “let us create betting markets on most controversial questions, and treat the current market odds as our best expert consensus,” and then reward real experts for their contributions.

作為預測市場的倡導者，漢森認為，“讓我們針對最具爭議的問題創建博彩市場，並將當前的市場賠率視為我們最好的專家共識”，然後獎勵真正的專家的貢獻。

What makes prediction markets particularly attractive is that they are largely efficient. And when it comes to elections, they have been shown to have lower statistical errors than polls and professional forecasters.

預測市場之所以特別有吸引力，是因為它們在很大程度上是有效率的。在選舉方面，事實證明，他們的統計錯誤比民調和專業預測​​者要低。

Beyond elections, the predictive power of these markets has been seen in industries such as pharmaceuticals and tech, where companies like Eli Lilly (LLY -1.74%), Google (GOOGL +0.3%), and Microsoft (MSFT -0.1%) have used them to forecast product outcomes. Thanks to their visionary value, many large companies use prediction markets as a prognostic tool.

除了選舉之外，這些市場的預測能力也體現在製藥和科技等產業，禮來(LLY -1.74%)、Google(GOOGL +0.3%) 和微軟(MSFT -0.1%) 等公司都曾在這些產業中使用過他們來預測產品結果。由於預測市場具有遠見卓識的價值，許多大公司將其用作預測工具。

Then, in the summer of 2018, the first decentralized prediction market, Augur, was launched on the Ethereum blockchain. Since then, the prediction market in crypto has exploded, with Polymarket leading this race.

隨後，2018 年夏天，第一個去中心化預測市場 Augur 在以太坊區塊鏈上上線。從那時起，加密貨幣的預測市場呈爆炸式增長，Polymarket 在這場競賽中處於領先地位。

Click here to learn all about buying Augur (REP).

按此處了解有關購買 Augur (REP) 的所有資訊。

Explosive Growth in Prediction Markets as Elections NearAs the race to the White House enters its critical final stretch, the prediction markets are also picking up steam. In Q3 of 2024, prediction markets grew a whopping 565.4%, according to the latest report from crypto data provider CoinGecko.

隨著選舉臨近，預測市場爆炸性成長隨著白宮競選進入關鍵的最後階段，預測市場也正在加速發展。根據加密資料提供商 CoinGecko 的最新報告，2024 年第三季預測市場成長高達 565.4%。

This massive growth had the volume on the top three prediction markets reaching $3.1 billion in Q3, from less than half a billion dollars ($466.3 mln) recorded in Q2.

這種巨大的成長使得三大預測市場的交易額從第二季的不到 5 億美元（4.663 億美元）增加到第三季的 31 億美元。

Almost all of this volume, however, belongs to Polymarket, accounting for 99% of the market share in September. Polymarket is an unregulated crypto-based prediction market that covers all kinds of topics, ranging from sports, politics, and crypto to business, science, and pop culture.

然而，這筆交易量幾乎全部屬於 Polymarket，佔了 9 月 99% 的市佔率。 Polymarket 是一個不受監管的以加密貨幣為基礎的預測市場，涵蓋各種主題，從運動、政治、加密貨幣到商業、科學和流行文化。

During the same period, the betting volume on the platform increased by 713.2%, while transactions grew by 848.5%.

同期，平台投注量成長713.2%，交易量成長848.5%。

About $1.7 billion of bets, which accounts for 46% of its total volume, meanwhile have been placed on the “US Presidential Election Winner” since the beginning of 2024. This volume has since risen past $1.89 billion on Polymarket.

自 2024 年初以來，「美國總統選舉獲勝者」的投注額約為 17 億美元，佔總投注額的 46%。

Just this week, the dYdX Foundation introduced a new derivatives product called Trump Prediction Market Perpetuals, which is pegged to the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election. Using this product, traders can apply advanced trading strategies in order to predict how Donald Trump will perform come Nov. 5.

就在本週，dYdX 基金會推出了一款名為川普預測市場永續合約的新衍生性商品，該產品與 2024 年美國總統大選的結果掛鉤。使用該產品，交易者可以應用先進的交易策略來預測唐納德·川普在 11 月 5 日的表現。

Traders can take long or short positions on Trump’s election prospects. Then, depending on how election trends change, they can increase or decrease their stakes.

交易者可以對川普的選舉前景持有多頭或空頭部位。然後，根據選舉趨勢的變化，他們可以增加或減少賭注。

The product comes with features like perpetual leverage, advanced risk management via stop-loss and take-profit orders, and real-time settlement, for which it operates in conjunction with Polymarket’s TRUMPWINYES market.

該產品具有永久槓桿、透過停損和止盈訂單進行高級風險管理以及即時結算等功能，並與 Polymarket 的 TRUMPWINYES 市場結合運作。

With US elections around the corner, Polymarket is clearly enjoying a lot of traction and has already raised $70 million in venture funding. Here, traders buy

隨著美國大選的臨近，Polymarket 顯然受到了極大的關注，並且已經籌集了 7000 萬美元的風險投資。貿易商在這裡購買