预测市场：押注不确定性

再过20天，美国总统大选就将落下帷幕，所有的辩论、社交媒体的狂热和市场的波动都将迎来喘息之机

With the US Presidential election rapidly approaching, various markets are offering unique insights into the potential outcome of the highly anticipated race. Among these markets, prediction markets have garnered significant attention, offering a unique perspective on how future events might unfold.

随着美国总统大选的临近，各个市场都对这场备受期待的竞选的潜在结果提供了独特的见解。在这些市场中，预测市场受到了极大的关注，为未来事件如何发展提供了独特的视角。

In essence, prediction markets, also known as betting markets, allow users to place bets on the occurrence or non-occurrence of an event. These markets function similarly to futures markets, where traders bid up or down for a future contract's price based on their expectations for the future price of the underlying asset.

从本质上讲，预测市场，也称为投注市场，允许用户对事件发生或不发生进行投注。这些市场的功能与期货市场类似，交易者根据对标的资产未来价格的预期来提高或降低未来合约的价格。

In prediction markets, a future event is being traded upon, with users voting yes or no to future events, based on which the market determines a price representing the estimate of the probability of the event occurring. The prices indicate what the crowd thinks the probability of the event is.

在预测市场中，未来事件正在被交易，用户对未来事件投票是或否，市场据此确定代表事件发生概率估计的价格。价格表明了人群对事件发生概率的看法。

Prediction markets or information markets belong to the realm of crowdsourcing, designed to aggregate information on a particular topic. This way, it extracts the belief over an unknown future outcome.

预测市场或信息市场属于众包领域，旨在聚合特定主题的信息。通过这种方式，它提取了对未知未来结果的信念。

These decision markets benefit from the wisdom of crowds, and by collecting and weighing these predictions, we can have a more balanced and reliable market-wide forecast than a single expert’s opinion.

这些决策市场受益于群体的智慧，通过收集和权衡这些预测，我们可以得到比单个专家的意见更加平衡和可靠的整个市场预测。

Interestingly, prediction markets aren’t anything new. In fact, the early forms of these markets were political betting.

有趣的是，预测市场并不是什么新鲜事。事实上，这些市场的早期形式是政治赌博。

As per Paul Rhode and Koleman Strumpf, records of election betting on Wall Street can be traced back as early as 1884, with the average betting turnover for each election estimated to be more than half of the campaign budget.

据Paul Rhode和Koleman Strumpf介绍，华尔街的选举投注记录可以追溯到1884年，每次选举的平均投注额估计超过竞选预算的一半以上。

The Iowa Electronic Markets, which is operated by faculty at the University of Iowa, is one of the first modern electronic prediction markets. Then, at Project Xanadu, as per economist Robin Hanson, a professor at George Mason University, the first corporate prediction market was used.

爱荷华电子市场由爱荷华大学教师运营，是最早的现代电子预测市场之一。然后，根据乔治梅森大学教授、经济学家罗宾·汉森的说法，“Xanadu 项目”使用了第一个企业预测市场。

An advocate for prediction markets, Hanson argues, “let us create betting markets on most controversial questions, and treat the current market odds as our best expert consensus,” and then reward real experts for their contributions.

作为预测市场的倡导者，汉森认为，“让我们针对最具争议的问题创建博彩市场，并将当前的市场赔率视为我们最好的专家共识”，然后奖励真正的专家的贡献。

What makes prediction markets particularly attractive is that they are largely efficient. And when it comes to elections, they have been shown to have lower statistical errors than polls and professional forecasters.

预测市场之所以特别有吸引力，是因为它们在很大程度上是高效的。在选举方面，事实证明，他们的统计错误比民意调查和专业预测者要低。

Beyond elections, the predictive power of these markets has been seen in industries such as pharmaceuticals and tech, where companies like Eli Lilly (LLY -1.74%), Google (GOOGL +0.3%), and Microsoft (MSFT -0.1%) have used them to forecast product outcomes. Thanks to their visionary value, many large companies use prediction markets as a prognostic tool.

除了选举之外，这些市场的预测能力还体现在制药和科技等行业，礼来 (LLY -1.74%)、谷歌 (GOOGL +0.3%) 和微软 (MSFT -0.1%) 等公司都曾在这些行业中使用过他们来预测产品结果。由于预测市场具有远见卓识的价值，许多大公司将其用作预测工具。

Then, in the summer of 2018, the first decentralized prediction market, Augur, was launched on the Ethereum blockchain. Since then, the prediction market in crypto has exploded, with Polymarket leading this race.

随后，2018 年夏天，第一个去中心化预测市场 Augur 在以太坊区块链上上线。从那时起，加密货币的预测市场呈爆炸式增长，Polymarket 在这场竞赛中处于领先地位。

Click here to learn all about buying Augur (REP).

单击此处了解有关购买 Augur (REP) 的所有信息。

Explosive Growth in Prediction Markets as Elections NearAs the race to the White House enters its critical final stretch, the prediction markets are also picking up steam. In Q3 of 2024, prediction markets grew a whopping 565.4%, according to the latest report from crypto data provider CoinGecko.

随着选举临近，预测市场出现爆炸式增长随着白宫竞选进入关键的最后阶段，预测市场也正在加速发展。根据加密数据提供商 CoinGecko 的最新报告，2024 年第三季度预测市场增长高达 565.4%。

This massive growth had the volume on the top three prediction markets reaching $3.1 billion in Q3, from less than half a billion dollars ($466.3 mln) recorded in Q2.

这种巨大的增长使得三大预测市场的交易额从第二季度的不到 5 亿美元（4.663 亿美元）增至第三季度的 31 亿美元。

Almost all of this volume, however, belongs to Polymarket, accounting for 99% of the market share in September. Polymarket is an unregulated crypto-based prediction market that covers all kinds of topics, ranging from sports, politics, and crypto to business, science, and pop culture.

然而，这一交易量几乎全部属于 Polymarket，占据了 9 月份 99% 的市场份额。 Polymarket 是一个不受监管的基于加密货币的预测市场，涵盖各种主题，从体育、政治、加密货币到商业、科学和流行文化。

During the same period, the betting volume on the platform increased by 713.2%, while transactions grew by 848.5%.

同期，平台投注量增长713.2%，交易量增长848.5%。

About $1.7 billion of bets, which accounts for 46% of its total volume, meanwhile have been placed on the “US Presidential Election Winner” since the beginning of 2024. This volume has since risen past $1.89 billion on Polymarket.

自 2024 年初以来，“美国总统选举获胜者”的投注额约为 17 亿美元，占总投注额的 46%。此后，Polymarket 的投注额已超过 18.9 亿美元。

Just this week, the dYdX Foundation introduced a new derivatives product called Trump Prediction Market Perpetuals, which is pegged to the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election. Using this product, traders can apply advanced trading strategies in order to predict how Donald Trump will perform come Nov. 5.

就在本周，dYdX 基金会推出了一款名为特朗普预测市场永续合约的新衍生品产品，该产品与 2024 年美国总统大选的结果挂钩。使用该产品，交易者可以应用先进的交易策略来预测唐纳德·特朗普在 11 月 5 日的表现。

Traders can take long or short positions on Trump’s election prospects. Then, depending on how election trends change, they can increase or decrease their stakes.

交易者可以对特朗普的选举前景持有多头或空头头寸。然后，根据选举趋势的变化，他们可以增加或减少赌注。

The product comes with features like perpetual leverage, advanced risk management via stop-loss and take-profit orders, and real-time settlement, for which it operates in conjunction with Polymarket’s TRUMPWINYES market.

该产品具有永久杠杆、通过止损和止盈订单进行高级风险管理以及实时结算等功能，并与 Polymarket 的 TRUMPWINYES 市场结合运作。

With US elections around the corner, Polymarket is clearly enjoying a lot of traction and has already raised $70 million in venture funding. Here, traders buy

随着美国大选的临近，Polymarket 显然受到了很大的关注，并且已经筹集了 7000 万美元的风险投资。贸易商在这里购买